How Indonesian resort island Bali became a refuge for Ukrainians and Russians

[Nimbus]

Just out of curiosity .. did you made a regression model in R?

No. The platform I use (Snowflake) doesn’t support R, I think. Python is supported, but I’m not familiar with it, yet. The data don’t have the dependent variable, so logistic regression is not possible.

They’re looking for a cheap way to detect phantom inventory, because getting it from a third party is too expensive. The contract to that vendor has not been renewed. I bet somebody thought that they can solve it cheaply by throwing maybe $10K to this Indian consulting company. We know how that went.

Phantom inventory detection is anything but a new problem. The company’s commercial analytics team brags that they use AI with 200+ parameters to create a fairly accurate demand forecast. The thing is, our team is low on the totem pole and doesn’t have access to it. That’s corporate bureaucracy to you.

In any case I’m not a programmer nor a statistician, I’m a corporate manager well outside the IT division who doesn’t even have admin access. I left IT about a decade ago, and I prefer not to get dragged back into it. My competence is in SQL and VBA, but I don’t advertise it because I get pigeonholed as one of the nerds, which is detrimental to my career. I’m slowly learning Python, but I’m not advertising it either.

I created the model entirely in SQL using only functions available in Snowflake. The consultant guy supposedly had access to an offshore support team having Python programmers, but since he did nothing then the team wasn’t engaged. I guess it’s a silver lining of some sort, because SQL is a data manipulation language, so it’s more efficient when churning huge amount of data (200 million records).

If you’ve done Six Sigma you should be familiar with the concept. Find the data points outside the control limits. The data in their original form work poorly with average and standard deviation, just too many zeros. I had to be creative and transform them into strings to be usable.

 

[Samoerai]

No. The platform I use (Snowflake) doesn’t support R, I think. Python is supported, but I’m not familiar with it, yet. The data don’t have the dependent variable, so logistic regression is not possible.

They’re looking for a cheap way to detect phantom inventory, because getting it from a third party is too expensive. The contract to that vendor has not been renewed. I bet somebody thought that they can solve it cheaply by throwing maybe $10K to this Indian consulting company. We know how that went.

Phantom inventory detection is anything but a new problem. The company’s commercial analytics team brags that they use AI with 200+ parameters to create a fairly accurate demand forecast. The thing is, our team is low on the totem pole and doesn’t have access to it. That’s corporate bureaucracy to you.

In any case I’m not a programmer nor a statistician, I’m a corporate manager well outside the IT division who doesn’t even have admin access. I left IT about a decade ago, and I prefer not to get dragged back into it. My competence is in SQL and VBA, but I don’t advertise it because I get pigeonholed as one of the nerds, which is detrimental to my career. I’m slowly learning Python, but I’m not advertising it either.

I created the model entirely in SQL using only functions available in Snowflake. The consultant guy supposedly had access to an offshore support team having Python programmers, but since he did nothing then the team wasn’t engaged. I guess it’s a silver lining of some sort, because SQL is a data manipulation language, so it’s more efficient when churning huge amount of data (200 million records).

If you’ve done Six Sigma you should be familiar with the concept. Find the data points outside the control limits. The data in their original form work poorly with average and standard deviation, just too many zeros. I had to be creative and transform them into strings to be usable.

Ha, I see the "phantom inventory" problem. You tackled the problem with SQL. Pintar!

 

[pantaiema]

As they say, you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.

I have become accustomed to hearing this phrase. However, I believe it doesn't apply to Indonesian employers. If they pay with one kilogram of peanuts and they get a monkey, it might even be better as monkeys hold a higher value. They could sell it and obtain more value, or it could train the monkeys to entertain people like the "Topeng Monyet." What not to like



Likewise, with robots, the Japanese, Koreans, and Americans are racing to create robots that can assist with combat mission, household chores and handle criminal situations. But if you were to place these expensive robots in the "Tanah Abang" market in Jakarta, they would disappear by the following day.
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[Nimbus]

I have become accustomed to hearing this phrase. However, I believe it doesn't apply to Indonesian employers. If they pay with one kilogram of peanuts and they get a monkey, it might even be better as monkeys hold a higher value. They could sell it and obtain more value, or it could train the monkeys to entertain people like the "Topeng Monyet." What not to like



Likewise, with robots, the Japanese, Koreans, and Americans are racing to create robots that can assist with household chores and handle criminal situations. But if you were to place these expensive robots in the "Tanah Abang" market in Jakarta, they would disappear by the following day.
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I get it. Looking at all those guys standing around the store doing nothing doesn’t inspire confidence. However, I think a big part of the problem is the environment and culture created by society and employers.

In many places there’s a vicious cycle: employers pay low, then employees do the minimum work they can get away with, leading to employers paying less for lower productivity, which in turn makes employees work even less. And so on.

I knew many Indonesians who lived in USA without full documentation. They basically came as tourists and stayed. Many were high school graduates, so they typically don’t go far in Indonesia, and they fit the stereotype of low productivity employees. However, in America their hard work literally pays, so over here they work like crazy. People work differently when they get $20 an hour in America as opposed to less than $2 an hour in Indonesia. They see the end of the tunnel.

 

[pantaiema]

I knew many Indonesians who lived in USA without full documentation. They basically came as tourists and stayed. Many were high school graduates, so they typically don’t go far in Indonesia, and they fit the stereotype of low productivity employees. However, in America their hard work literally pays, so over here they work like crazy. People work differently when they get $20 an hour in America as opposed to less than $2 an hour in Indonesia. They see the end of the tunnel.

There aren't many Indonesian illegal immigrants in the US, EU, CA, AU, or other developed nations anyway, especially when considering the population of Indonesia. Also they might originally come to the US as university students and paid a lot of money for their living expenses and tuition fees.

Moreover, if they were to live illegally, they are more likely to be independent and self-sufficient. They do not depend on the state benefits or social security using taxpayer's money. So they do not become the burden to society or taxpayers.

Compare that to bogus asylum seekers with many children who come to Europe. Many live on benefits/social security with their families, get free accommodation, health care, free schools on the cost of the taxpayers. They could potentially earn more income than those who are working. This is quite distinct from the small number of Indonesians living illegally in the developed world.

If the attitude of Indonesian people were the same as bogus asylum seekers coming to Europe or other developed countries, Australia could be in trouble. The Indonesian government is even helping the Australian government to curb illegal immigration using Indonesia as a transit route. Australia also benefit from reasonable number of students from Indonesia. Not to mention, arguably dirty money from Indonesia.

The apparent wage difference between $20 an hour in the US and $2 an hour in Indonesia might not lead to a significant difference in real income when accounting for factors like cost of living and regional minimum wage. If they live outside Jakarta it might even be better.

 

[pantaiema]

This Indonesian guy must be enjoying making money while taking in a nice view, working as a diving and snorkelling instructor. One of the problems, as with many Indonesians working in the Tourism and Hospitality Industry, is that their English is substandard to work as an instructor or a guide. Let alone if you notice the accent.

 

[Nimbus]

There aren't many Indonesian illegal immigrants in the US, EU, CA, AU, or other developed nations anyway, especially when considering the population of Indonesia. Also they might originally come to the US as university students and paid a lot of money for their living expenses and tuition fees.

As governments tighten their immigration procedure, undocumented immigration becomes harder, especially for people from origin countries not sharing a border with the destination countries. It’s true that there aren’t a lot of undocumented Indonesians in USA and Europe, but the number is not negligible. I think they’re in the tens of thousands. It’s enough to confirm the behavioral change.

I really don’t think most Indonesian undocumented immigrants in USA are former students. People who can afford to enroll into outrageously expensive American universities, even for a semester, very rarely stay to be a manual laborer in America. Instead of waiting tables in America, they can go home and be a manager in Indonesia. Of all the people I know, only one was a former student. Most of the people overstaying their visa are tourists or ship crews.

Moreover, if they were to live illegally, they are more likely to be independent and self-sufficient. They do not depend on the state benefits or social security using taxpayer's money. So they do not become the burden to society or taxpayers.

In America that’s true, not because they don’t ask for it, but because they generally don’t qualify for it. Any benefit they get is usually linked to their American-born children, who are American citizens by law. America is a lot more stingy in benefits than Europe, to the point where legal immigrants (green card holders) aren’t eligible for most federal benefits they paid taxes into, until 5 years after they gained the status.

Compare that to bogus asylum seekers with many children who come to Europe. Many live on benefits/social security with their families, get free accommodation, health care, free schools on the cost of the taxpayers. They could potentially earn more income than those who are working. This is quite distinct from the small number of Indonesians living illegally in the developed world.

If the attitude of Indonesian people were the same as bogus asylum seekers coming to Europe or other developed countries, Australia could be in trouble. The Indonesian government is even helping the Australian government to curb illegal immigration using Indonesia as a transit route. Australia also benefit from reasonable numbere od student from Indonesia. Not to mention, arguably dirty money from Indonesia.

What’s so tough about immigration policy is that both extremes are wrong. A xenophobic closed border doesn’t work, and an open border doesn’t work either. It’s a nuanced topic, and popular politics aren’t great with nuances.

The sin of this bogus asylum seekers is being born in the wrong country. Everybody in the world wants to give his kids a better future. If you eke a living in a third world country day by day, not knowing whether you’re gonna eat next week or tomorrow, you’d jump at the opportunity to move into America or Europe too. I would.

On the flip side America and Europe can’t just accept everybody who applies for asylum. They can’t afford it.

All I’m saying is that I don’t buy into this “lazy immigrants” narrative, because it’s the oldest stereotype in the book. The reality is never that simple.

By the way, a lot (if not the majority) of undocumented Indonesian immigrants get legalized through asylum. I’m fairly certain that the majority of cases are bogus. They invent stories of persecution in Indonesia to shore up their case, and I’m not fully comfortable with that. Still, they gotta do what they gotta do.

 

[Bob]

As governments tighten their immigration procedure, undocumented immigration becomes harder, especially for people from origin countries not sharing a border with the destination countries. It’s true that there aren’t a lot of undocumented Indonesians in USA and Europe, but the number is not negligible. I think they’re in the tens of thousands. It’s enough to confirm the behavioral change.

I really don’t think most Indonesian undocumented immigrants in USA are former students. People who can afford to enroll into outrageously expensive American universities, even for a semester, very rarely stay to be a manual laborer in America. Instead of waiting tables in America, they can go home and be a manager in Indonesia. Of all the people I know, only one was a former student. Most of the people overstaying their visa are tourists or ship crews.


In America that’s true, not because they don’t ask for it, but because they generally don’t qualify for it. Any benefit they get is usually linked to their American-born children, who are American citizens by law. America is a lot more stingy in benefits than Europe, to the point where legal immigrants (green card holders) aren’t eligible for most federal benefits they paid taxes into, until 5 years after they gained the status.


What’s so tough about immigration policy is that both extremes are wrong. A xenophobic closed border doesn’t work, and an open border doesn’t work either. It’s a nuanced topic, and popular politics aren’t great with nuances.

The sin of this bogus asylum seekers is being born in the wrong country. Everybody in the world wants to give his kids a better future. If you eke a living in a third world country day by day, not knowing whether you’re gonna eat next week or tomorrow, you’d jump at the opportunity to move into America or Europe too. I would.

On the flip side America and Europe can’t just accept everybody who applies for asylum. They can’t afford it.

All I’m saying is that I don’t buy into this “lazy immigrants” narrative, because it’s the oldest stereotype in the book. The reality is never that simple.

By the way, a lot (if not the majority) of undocumented Indonesian immigrants get legalized through asylum. I’m fairly certain that the majority of cases are bogus. They invent stories of persecution in Indonesia to shore up their case, and I’m not fully comfortable with that. Still, they gotta do what they gotta do.

To a point. To me, immigration fraud is past that point. The US has enough grifters and we don't need more.

 

[fastpitch17]

The US has a serious immigration problem with no remedies in the air. The progressive Dems want open boarders which is about the stupidest thing any nation could do. The middle leaning Dems want to do something but have no positive roadmap towards a solution. The Repubs want to bitch and complain while offering no remedies or solutions.

I think they need to stop whatever they are doing. Form a bipartisan committee with dems, repubs, boarder enforcement, immigration, social service experts, medical experts, and those that have to deal with immigrants. 2 months to come up with a plan. In that 2 months 2 months after, the number of immigrants allowed in is vastly reduced and any immigrant caught crossing the boarder is apprehended and sent back not allowing for application of amnesty even if they reach US soil.

A more active record keeping and enforcement of those that enter via visa and overstay. The problems are not just those that walk across the Southern boarder.

 

[flavus]

All I’m saying is that I don’t buy into this “lazy immigrants” narrative, because it’s the oldest stereotype in the book. The reality is never that simple.

Agreed. Likewise with the opposite, "model immigrant" stereotype

 

[flavus]

I think they need to stop whatever they are doing. Form a bipartisan committee with dems, repubs, boarder enforcement, immigration, social service experts, medical experts, and those that have to deal with immigrants.

This was tried. A lot of the Republicans involved got primaried, so now we see that people only dare to buck the party orthodoxy when they are about to retire anyway

 

[Samoerai]

It’s true that there aren’t a lot of undocumented Indonesians in USA and Europe, but the number is not negligible.

In The Netherlands, especially in The Hague, there are a couple of thousands undocumented Indonesians living. They work - as they say - in the cleaning industry. I know some of them personally. They make a lot of money: let's say they get 15 euro per hour. They have 3 houses per day to clean on average, per house 3 hours cleaning. This 6 days a week. Total income per week is 810 euro per person. Per month is 3240 euro per person. No tax. This is on average their income. And I fact checked this with the ones I know. They also rent a house together, so rent is not a big chunk out of their income. The ones I know, like to show off their good life and put pictures on FB of e.g. their Canon cameras and vacations to Paris and Swiss and so on. Get caught by police and deported. Then come back on a fake passport. Really happened.

 

[Pak Tani]

A xenophobic closed border doesn’t work...

I can imagine why people will find this undesirable, but just for the sake of it, why wouldn't it work? Poland seems to be doing fine.

 

[Nimbus]

In The Netherlands, especially in The Hague, there are a couple of thousands undocumented Indonesians living. They work - as they say - in the cleaning industry. I know some of them personally. They make a lot of money: let's say they get 15 euro per hour. They have 3 houses per day to clean on average, per house 3 hours cleaning. This 6 days a week. Total income per week is 810 euro per person. Per month is 3240 euro per person. No tax. This is on average their income. And I fact checked this with the ones I know. They also rent a house together, so rent is not a big chunk out of their income. The ones I know, like to show off their good life and put pictures on FB of e.g. their Canon cameras and vacations to Paris and Swiss and so on. Get caught by police and deported. Then come back on a fake passport. Really happened.

This used to happen in USA too, returning with a real but fake passport. The Indonesian term is ‘aspal’, asli tapi palsu, real but fake. It’s a real (not forged passport) but it contains fake information. They pay off an Indonesian Immigration employee to do it. I knew somebody who returned after deportation this way. Today it’s no longer possible because US immigration collects your biometric data upon entry. They take prints of all 10 fingers and feed your face to the facial recognition database. You will be found out instantly if you try to reenter under a different name. Schengen probably has a similar procedure today.

The Indonesians I knew worked mostly in the restaurant business, as chefs or waiters. They made good money, to the tune of $50K a year tax free, and that was 7-8 years ago. They drove around in fancy cars (mercedes) and sport bikes. Ironically most of the legal guys didn’t earn quite as much in their entry level office jobs.

 

[Nimbus]

I can imagine why people will find this undesirable, but just for the sake of it, why wouldn't it work? Poland seems to be doing fine.

A closed border means no entry of foreigners.

• No business visitors
• No investors
• No tourists
• No foreign spouse and children of citizens
• No foreigners period

This is basically Japan under the isolationist Sakoku policy, before Commodore Perry forced them to open the country.

Poland doesn’t have a closed border.

 

[Nimbus]

To a point. To me, immigration fraud is past that point. The US has enough grifters and we don't need more.

I’m not excusing fraud.

At the same time I’m fed up with a certain segment of American society claiming they’re not against immigrants, they’re only against illegal ones, yet they continuously vote for politicians who make legal immigration harder and harder. When legal immigration is extremely hard, people go the other way.

 

[Pak Tani]

A closed border means no entry of foreigners.

• No business visitors
• No investors
• No tourists
• No foreign spouse and children of citizens
• No foreigners period

This is basically Japan under the isolationist Sakoku policy, before Commodore Perry forced them to open the country.

Poland doesn’t have a closed border.

You mentioned 'a xenofobic closed border' in a reply to Pantai's post about 'bogus asylum seekers', we are clearly not talking about investors.
Poland works hard to help hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, however they do not accept muslim refugees.
This seems to be working out fine for them.*

*according to their president

 

[Nimbus]

You mentioned 'a xenofobic closed border' in a reply to Pantai's post about 'bogus asylum seekers'.
Poland works hard to help hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees, however they do not accept muslim refugees.
This seems to be working out fine for them.

Xenofobic is anti foreigner in general, meaning all foreigners regardless of race or religion. Anti Muslim policy is Islamophobic.

My point is that immigration policy is always about picking and choosing who you let in. This is tough because different people favor different types of immigrants. Keeping ALL foreigners out is not an option in this modern world.

 

[Hawk256]

One of the craziest immigation laws in the US is that anyone born on US soil is automtically a citizen. This law was orginally passed to give citizenship rights to slaves but now sets up the posilbility of anchor babies. Have a kid in the US, they are citizen, now you, your spouse and the rest of the family can apply for citizenship to take care of your American baby.

I don't know a single person (and I know a lot of conservatives) who are against legal immigration. The problem is too much illegal immigration and no pusnishment for those that are caught. They may catch the same person 10 times.

 

[Hawk256]

Also I would like to add when a state is giving drivers lisceses to illegal aliens, are you really doing all you can to stop the problem?