DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

Helpful Herbert

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90% efficacy is very good. It's a fair bet that developed countries could have active Covid cases down to almost zero by June. How Indonesia and other developing countries reach that goal is still rather unclear at this point, especially if it turns out they are backing the wrong vaccine candidate.
 

R Cameron

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An additional problem is the Pfizer mRNA based vaccine is one of those that require -70°C refrigeration, and that would make it hard to distribute, especially in countries like Indonesia.
That is quite unfortunate. I found this article from 2 months ago already discussing the supply chain issues: https://outline.com/zj8cmg

Pfizer has created containers that will keep about 1,000 to 5,000 doses at -75°C (plus or minus 15°) for 10 days, kept cold with dry ice. The company is also partnering with UPS to build two freezer farms, one in Louisville, Kentucky and the other in the Netherlands, that can house 48,000 vials of vaccine at -80°C (-112°F.)

Once the vaccines have thawed, they can be kept in the fridge for five days—but this time can be quickly eaten up in the commute.

Clearly US and Europe will get first access to this vaccine. If it proves to be the most effective hopefully they will license the manufacture to a company in Asia, perhaps Singapore, Korea, and/or Japan. That 5 days of refrigerator time will be critical, I wonder if it extends significantly with common freezer temperatures around -15C?
 

fastpitch17

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A 90% efficacy is very VERY good, so cautiously optimistic. Of course data has not been released. An additional problem is the Pfizer mRNA based vaccine is one of those that require -70°C refrigeration, and that would make it hard to distribute, especially in countries like Indonesia. On the other hand, this could mean that some of the other vaccines may also be successful. The Sinovac one that Indonesia is betting the most on does not need specialized refrigeration.
Even the US will have problems with the Pfizer Vac. Doctors offices and most hospitals do not have the equipment to keep this Vac at proper temps.

Imagine Indonesia. There is no way they could handle this Vac. I would guess there would be thawing and refreezing going on that would not be announced. One could easily look at the way frozen food is handled and that is far from the -70c range.

Wonder what the cost will be in regards to the different Vacs? I doubt Indonesia is going to go down the free for all path.
 

R Cameron

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Pfizer has said they are working on a powder version which doesn't have the temperature storage issues.
 

dafluff

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Some not so good news for Sinovac:


The trial can now resume, as the death has been ruled unrelated to the vaccine (it was apparently a suicide).

 

HappyMan

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After COVID-19 Diagnosis, Nearly 1 In 5 Are Diagnosed With Mental Disorder
"New research has found that nearly 1 person in 5 diagnosed with COVID-19 is diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder like anxiety, depression or insomnia within three months.“
"People recovering from COVID-19 were about twice as likely to be diagnosed with a mental health disorder as compared with someone who had the flu, says Paul Harrison, professor of psychiatry at Oxford and one of the study's authors."

This is rather worrying. There is a whole can of nightmare worms in this story. With no clear mechanism for the mental effects of the virus, I am left to imagine future evolutions with even more dramatic results. Just... a gift that keeps on giving.

I have several family members in the States that should have recovered from the virus by now, but they have complications... Sometimes I wonder what the hell I was thinking when I decided to move to the other side of the planet.
 
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fastpitch17

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Someone suggested that perhaps it would be a good time to get out of Indonesia because of the covid problem and return to the US. No matter how I look at it, there is no improvement and it may actually be worse. Of course, yesterday it was reported my city here is getting hit hard right now. No wonder with the lack of testing and follow up. Seemed some idiots thought that they should just watch Jakarta and maybe a couple other major metropolitan areas. We are a Red Zone and no one seems to be acting any differently. Still plenty of people out there with no mask. No enforcement of the rules either it seems.
 

Puspawarna

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Someone suggested that perhaps it would be a good time to get out of Indonesia because of the covid problem and return to the US.

Months ago, when the pandemic was a newish thing we understood even less than we do now, @JaimeC asked for advice on whether he and his family should stay in the US or return to Indonesia. I suggested returning to Indonesia (he did, though I am sure my advice was only a small voice in the factors that he considered before making his decision).

It relieves me that I see no reason for that to have been horrible advice. I'm not in the thick of it in either the US or Indonesia, since I am now in the relative cocoon of Hawai'i Island.

And now, for America as a whole? Well....we can hope for a future improvement in the US situation, but right now it seems nightmarish. What good is being in a supposedly "advanced" country, if people are angrily refusing to take the practical, scientifically validated steps that reduce transmission; health care workers are exhausted from the many months of trauma they have had to deal with; and health insurance is a nightmare?
 

dafluff

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Months ago, when the pandemic was a newish thing we understood even less than we do now, @JaimeC asked for advice on whether he and his family should stay in the US or return to Indonesia. I suggested returning to Indonesia (he did, though I am sure my advice was only a small voice in the factors that he considered before making his decision).

With everything we know about Covid now, and with the advancements the Indonesian government made in testing rates (although it is still lacking), I would be much more comfortable suggesting someone to stay in Indonesia than I would have in February/March. Especially if the alternative is a northern hemisphere country about to enter 3 months of winter.

While testing rates are still low compared to other countries, Indonesia is testing about 30,000 per day now, compared to under 300 back in March. With it we can have a better understanding of the impact the pandemic has, and it is clear Indonesia for the most part is avoiding nightmare scenarios a la northern Italy/New York.

As a bonus, it looks like economic upheaval has also been averted.
 

Nimbus

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A couple of months ago when hospitals in USA were mostly below capacity, going here was the better choice. Today hospitals in many counties are approaching or at capacity for Covid. Staying put is probably better.
 

harryopal

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As Elon Musk has apparently shown there are serious problems with testing. Four tests and two positives and two negative. If one were in fact unfortunate enough to have a false positive result the last place I would want to go would be to a stretched hospital where I daresay the chances of picking up Covid 19 would be rather higher.
 

waarmstrong

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Considering that most of the Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech vaccine production has been subscribed by the USA and other Western countries (the ones with the money), the projection is that it will not be available for 3rd world populations until 2023. It also present serious logistical complication associated with the need for super-cooling that many countries are simply not equipped to address.
 

Bad_azz

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Interesting, considering these are the holidays they already added the last ones to...

" If the COVID-19 cases do not experience a significant increase and the COVID-19 Task Force can still control the handling of COVID-19, then the Task Force will still provide input to the government to be able to continue the long holidays of Christmas and New Year 2021.

"But when the cases increase as in the last August and September period, the recommendation is to shorten the year-end long holiday or eliminate it altogether," said Doni."
 

Ruserious

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As Elon Musk has apparently shown there are serious problems with testing. Four tests and two positives and two negative

Those were all rapid tests which are known to be highly inaccurate. Why did he even bother with them and not go straight to pcr like everyone else does. Its almost like he wants to find inaccuracies and report them to stir things up and support his point of view. Musk is a bit of a genius and a bit of an a**hole at the same time.
 

Bad_azz

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As Elon Musk has apparently shown there are serious problems with testing. Four tests and two positives and two negative. If one were in fact unfortunate enough to have a false positive result the last place I would want to go would be to a stretched hospital where I daresay the chances of picking up Covid 19 would be rather higher.
An elderly friend of my dad was sick in hospital (not covid related), as he recovered the powers that be sought fit to transfer him to another hospital & and put him in a ward with people who had covid, he now has it & isn't expected to survive.

Good old UK logistics there. SMH.
 

dafluff

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An elderly friend of my dad was sick in hospital (not covid related), as he recovered the powers that be sought fit to transfer him to another hospital & and put him in a ward with people who had covid, he now has it & isn't expected to survive.

Good old UK logistics there. SMH.

WTF? That's terrible...
 

fastpitch17

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Considering that most of the Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech vaccine production has been subscribed by the USA and other Western countries (the ones with the money), the projection is that it will not be available for 3rd world populations until 2023. It also present serious logistical complication associated with the need for super-cooling that many countries are simply not equipped to address.
There are others coming down the pipeline that should be available sooner and with less problems just handling them.
 

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