DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

fastpitch17

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That's not how studies like this are done. They had 40,000 people in the study and can't possibly track the behavior. If you use a small number of participants you can more realistically monitor and control for behavioral variables, but a small sample size is not reassuring for safety statistics. So they choose a large scale study, verifying safety for a far greater diversity of subjects, and the sheer scale of the numbers ensures all those minor behavioral differences average out, leaving an estimated efficacy with an acknowledged, though narrow, margin of error.
My point exactly. Behaviors are not monitored so they have no idea how many took other precautions and how many didn't. It could mean something.
 

fastpitch17

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Right now the vaccine here makes no difference to me. Anyone over 59 can not get it since they say it has not been tested for that age group. Yeah, no sense testing for those in one of the high risk areas.

We all knew Indonesia didn't have the capability of deep freeze. Probably won't be able to handle the Modena either. Not that Indonesia would invest in something where China and Russia will offer their questionable product cheaper.
 

Helpful Herbert

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“The percentage of people’s obedience towards 3M protocols must reach a minimum of 80 percent to be able to control the COVID-19 infection rate,” wrote Anies Baswedan in Sunday’s statement on the extension of the transitional PSBB social restriction.

In other news, Anies decides to participate in a superspreader event with FPI.

In many countries, public officials openly flouting the regulations would be forced to resign.
 

R Cameron

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My point exactly. Behaviors are not monitored so they have no idea how many took other precautions and how many didn't. It could mean something.
Your lack of understanding of simple statistical models does not mean that "it could mean something". It doesn't. If you want to educate yourself, you can start here, this is a very introductory article, you can easily go deeper googling some terms found within: https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/control-group/

Right now the vaccine here makes no difference to me. Anyone over 59 can not get it since they say it has not been tested for that age group. Yeah, no sense testing for those in one of the high risk areas.

We all knew Indonesia didn't have the capability of deep freeze. Probably won't be able to handle the Modena either. Not that Indonesia would invest in something where China and Russia will offer their questionable product cheaper.
What vaccine are you speaking of? The Moderna vaccine was test on 3 age groups, including a 56-69 and a 70+, and showed success: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...k-as-well-in-older-adults-in-early-study.html
The Sinovac vaccine is also being tested on a 60+ group: https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-020-04775-4

The Moderna vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperature for 30 days, and only needs common freezer temperature (-20C) for 6 month storage. Indonesia is easily capable of this distribution in larger towns and cities, which are the most severely impacted by Covid anyway. It will take extra effort to reach the last 10% of the more isolated population, but it may simply not be necessary if there is high uptake in cities and towns.
 

waarmstrong

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Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine does not require any special handling and preliminarily, the rate of effectiveness approaches that of the Moderna & Pfizer efforts.
 

dafluff

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Another day another vaccine. Oxford-AstraZeneca's product is a vector based vaccine (part of the genetic code of the virus is written into a harmless virus). It is reportedly up to 90% effective, although this is based on two regimen tested, one was 2 x full doses, which resulted in 62% effectiveness. The other regimen is one half dose followed by a full does, which is up to 90% effective.

Advantage of AZ vaccine: very cheap to make (~$3/dose), AZ has committed to selling this product at cost to developing countries, and doesn't require exotic cooling solutions.

 

harryopal

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I think that for future travel this will become the "new normal".

Proof of vaccination prior to boarding.


Of course it does raise questions about the supposed longevity value of a vaccine. So for constant travelers it may mean a vaccine every other month. What is known about this?
 

R Cameron

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Of course it does raise questions about the supposed longevity value of a vaccine. So for constant travelers it may mean a vaccine every other month. What is known about this?
It will continue to be monitored in all the study groups, but at present the virologists anticipate with high confidence that the immune response to vaccination will have long effect like the immunity from a Covid infection. Studies have followed Covid infection and found that immunity through antibodies and then T-cells lasts for at least 6 months in almost all cases, and this too will continue to be monitored. Whether immunity typically lasts 6 months, 12 months, 5 years, 10 years, or a lifetime is still up for speculation and study, but needing a vaccination more frequently than annually is a highly unlikely outcome.
 

Dave70

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Rare news from a mainstream media about China's COVID-19 vaccine, just SinoPharm alone has "tested" about a million people, not including SinoVac and CanSino.

 

fastpitch17

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Your lack of understanding of simple statistical models does not mean that "it could mean something". It doesn't. If you want to educate yourself, you can start here, this is a very introductory article, you can easily go deeper googling some terms found within: https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/control-group/


What vaccine are you speaking of? The Moderna vaccine was test on 3 age groups, including a 56-69 and a 70+, and showed success: https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...k-as-well-in-older-adults-in-early-study.html
The Sinovac vaccine is also being tested on a 60+ group: https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-020-04775-4

The Moderna vaccine can be stored at refrigerator temperature for 30 days, and only needs common freezer temperature (-20C) for 6 month storage. Indonesia is easily capable of this distribution in larger towns and cities, which are the most severely impacted by Covid anyway. It will take extra effort to reach the last 10% of the more isolated population, but it may simply not be necessary if there is high uptake in cities and towns.
Yes, I understand. Simple statistical models work well for you.
As for the vaccine that is planned on being administered in Indonesia a simple read of the announcements by the government would answer that. They announced that no one over 59 or under I believe 18 will receive the vaccine due to lack of testing in those age groups. I am guessing only that they are going with the Russian one that they said they were interested in.
 

fastpitch17

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Not a walk in the park

"We really need to make patients aware that this is not going to be a walk in the park," said Sandra Fryhofer, MD, of the American Medical Association, during a Nov. 23 meeting with the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, as reported by CNBC. "They are going to know they had a vaccine. They are probably not going to feel wonderful."

 

Dave70

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Maybe not: Indonesia just cancelled basically all vaccine orders, except for 3 million doses from Sinovac. Previously they were going to buy about 300 million doses from Astra Zeneca, and the 3 Chinese manufacturers.

Also, the vaccine fine is just a Jakarta by-law, and remember that Jakarta also has by-laws against throwing garbage in the rivers. :ROFLMAO:


Take, for example, Indonesia. The island nation has ordered over 430 million doses from the three major Chinese companies.

 

R Cameron

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As for the vaccine that is planned on being administered in Indonesia a simple read of the announcements by the government would answer that. They announced that no one over 59 or under I believe 18 will receive the vaccine due to lack of testing in those age groups. I am guessing only that they are going with the Russian one that they said they were interested in.

All traced back to this announcement, right? https://www.cnnindonesia.com/nasion...sin-corona-kemenkes-utamakan-usia-18-59-tahun

He's basically wrong. Maybe he only knew of the age groups of the trial group in Indonesia, and was not informed of the age groups in the phase 3 trials in several other countries. Sinovac most certainly has been tested on 60+. (as linked above; https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-020-04775-4)

Indonesia has also ordered millions of doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca, which has also been tested above 60. https://jakartaglobe.id/business/vaccine-plan-with-astrazeneca-is-still-on-airlangga

I can't tell if you are determined to be simply pessimistic in general, or specifically vaccine skeptical. Fortunately, the news is not as bleak as you portray.
 

ChrisTex

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Ok, so you know how some countries like Indonesia say they will fine you for not getting the vaccine and as posted earlier, airlines won't let you fly if you haven't taken the vaccine? One thing I haven't seen mentioned is what if someone is allergic to something in the vaccine? What happens then? Take me for example, I am allergic to peniciline since I was 6 or 7. Do they still force someone to take the vaccine even if they have a legit medical concern with something that could kill them?
 

R Cameron

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Ok, so you know how some countries like Indonesia say they will fine you for not getting the vaccine and as posted earlier, airlines won't let you fly if you haven't taken the vaccine? One thing I haven't seen mentioned is what if someone is allergic to something in the vaccine? What happens then? Take me for example, I am allergic to peniciline since I was 6 or 7. Do they still force someone to take the vaccine even if they have a legit medical concern with something that could kill them?

An additional concern is people who have already been infected with Covid. They should be considered effectively immunized, and yet will they be able to obtain travel documents saying such? And if so, does it require a documented positive PCR test?

Many people know with a high confidence they got Covid because they were exposed to someone tested positive and had all the exact symptoms, but it never got severe so they isolated at home and never got tested.

What is more, none of the vaccines, to my knowledge, have yet been tested on people who have been previously infected with Covid. There is a small but real potential that there could be distinct safety issues with such vaccination.
 

nd_eric_77

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Ok, so you know how some countries like Indonesia say they will fine you for not getting the vaccine and as posted earlier, airlines won't let you fly if you haven't taken the vaccine? One thing I haven't seen mentioned is what if someone is allergic to something in the vaccine? What happens then? Take me for example, I am allergic to peniciline since I was 6 or 7. Do they still force someone to take the vaccine even if they have a legit medical concern with something that could kill them?
I imagine they will have procedures in place by which one can get a health certificate attesting to one's health condition preventing one from getting vaccinated - much like how I have a plastic card telling airport security about the metal cage around my patella.
An additional concern is people who have already been infected with Covid. They should be considered effectively immunized, and yet will they be able to obtain travel documents saying such? And if so, does it require a documented positive PCR test?

Many people know with a high confidence they got Covid because they were exposed to someone tested positive and had all the exact symptoms, but it never got severe so they isolated at home and never got tested.

What is more, none of the vaccines, to my knowledge, have yet been tested on people who have been previously infected with Covid. There is a small but real potential that there could be distinct safety issues with such vaccination.
One potential solution would be for airlines to require one of the following forms of documentation:
  • Proof of vaccination
  • Proof of antibody test showing that one has recovered from Covid
  • Proof of vaccine ineligibility due to a medical condition (religious, ethical, or ideological objections ARE NOT medical conditions)
 

vocalneal

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Proof of vaccine ineligibility due to a medical condition (religious, ethical, or ideological objections ARE NOT medical conditions)

This may curtail the missionary activities of some of the god bothering sects?
 

nd_eric_77

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This may curtail the missionary activities of some of the god bothering sects?
Don't count on it; plenty of missionaries still go to parts of Africa where yellow fever vaccinations have been required for decades.
 

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