DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

waarmstrong

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There are others coming down the pipeline that should be available sooner and with less problems just handling them.
Moderna just announced and you seem to be correct that their product does not need super-cooling, but its not going to be available any faster than Pfizer's. Media here are reporting that there will likely be 20 million doses available for December which is not quite enough to cover all the highest priority group -- medical staffs and first responders. To vaccinate every priority group down to the "everybody else" group at the lowest point on the totem-pole will take until May or June of 2021. That's just for the USA.
 

R Cameron

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Moderna just announced and you seem to be correct that their product does not need super-cooling, but its not going to be available any faster than Pfizer's. Media here are reporting that there will likely be 20 million doses available for December which is not quite enough to cover all the highest priority group -- medical staffs and first responders. To vaccinate every priority group down to the "everybody else" group at the lowest point on the totem-pole will take until May or June of 2021. That's just for the USA.
I have no idea what manufacture entails, but I should think they would license their product to medical manufacturers in Europe and Asia (Singapore? Japan? S. Korea?).
 

waarmstrong

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Moderna just announced and you seem to be correct that their product does not need super-cooling, but its not going to be available any faster than Pfizer's. Media here are reporting that there will likely be 20 million doses available for December which is not quite enough to cover all the highest priority group -- medical staffs and first responders. To vaccinate every priority group down to the "everybody else" group at the lowest point on the totem-pole will take until May or June of 2021. That's just for the USA.
Make that 20 million recipients from the highest priority group with each getting two shots of either vaccine.
 

harryopal

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Reports that some vaccines being developed at the moment are showing efficacy of as high as 94.5% may further raise hopes that things will quickly return to normal or a new normal once vaccines are out in the market place. The realities as outlined in an ABC news report this morning may prick that little hope bubble.

"...ideally, a vaccine should prevent any person who receives it from catching the disease. However, at least with the first vaccines, it is likely the benefits will be more limited. For example, they may slightly reduce the severity of the illness, or they may only benefit a small subset of the population....

"....a clinical trial might show "efficacy" in a formal sense but might not solve the key problems we are facing in the real world.

Full story https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11...fety-equity-effectiveness-compromise/12894360

The logistical problems in getting any vaccines to saturate populations may take quite some time. I am inclined to think it may be well into 2022 before things settle somewhat and then we start to pick up the pieces of shattered economies and huge numbers of people still unemployed. I would be surprised if international tourist numbers to Indonesia pick up much before 2024 and even beyond that.
 

Bad_azz

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There are several factors that I believe will slow things down

1 we live in the instant gratification society- want it now at once if not sooner- Nature doesn't play the instant gratification game.
2 rushing out any vaccines/medicines is never a wonderful thing
3 logistics- think how long it takes for unified people to work together towards a common goal, then look at the globe- see much unification?
4 We can't even get people wearing masks properly or taking the vaccines already out there for other viral conditions
those are my misgivings just for starters.
I therefore believe 18 months would be a more realistic/conservative target for getting things back to 'normal' .
 

nd_eric_77

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There are several factors that I believe will slow things down

1 we live in the instant gratification society- want it now at once if not sooner- Nature doesn't play the instant gratification game.
2 rushing out any vaccines/medicines is never a wonderful thing
3 logistics- think how long it takes for unified people to work together towards a common goal, then look at the globe- see much unification?
4 We can't even get people wearing masks properly or taking the vaccines already out there for other viral conditions
those are my misgivings just for starters.
I therefore believe 18 months would be a more realistic/conservative target for getting things back to 'normal' .
Just to clarify, do you mean 18 months from now or 18 months from the start of the pandemic?
 

yantiharun1

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you mean herr trumpf ya
Operation Warp Speed (OWS) is a public–private partnership, initiated by the Trump administration, to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.
 

scouser59

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Operation Warp Speed (OWS) is a public–private partnership, initiated by the Trump administration, to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.
ya herr trumpf is a wonderful guy ,sic .
 

Helpful Herbert

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If you think about how long the Global Fund has been trying to eradicate TB and HiV (amongst others) in Indonesia and other places (decades), the idea we'll all be back to normal by the end of 2021 is far-fetched.
 

dafluff

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If you think about how long the Global Fund has been trying to eradicate TB and HiV (amongst others) in Indonesia and other places (decades), the idea we'll all be back to normal by the end of 2021 is far-fetched.

If the vaccines coming out all have over 90% efficacy then it's actually pretty close to possible. With efficacy that high, much fewer people need to be vaccinated for herd immunity. Further, it appears that even those that get Covid after vaccination, will only get the mild-moderate form. Certainly even in Indonesia most dense urban areas should have been vaccinated by end of 2021, if vaccines are available.

Now whether the Sinovac vaccine will have this high of an efficacy needs to be seen. Unfortunately, this is likely the only vaccine that will be widely available in Indonesia.
 

fastpitch17

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Operation Warp Speed (OWS) is a public–private partnership, initiated by the Trump administration, to facilitate and accelerate the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.
Pfizer did not sign up for trumps warp speed. Only agreed to sell it to the US.
 

fastpitch17

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Still a lot of questions concerning the test people. How many normally wore a mask, social distanced, and stayed away from others during the trial? Can we really accept the high success rate?

Evidently the vacs come with some very painful and physically affecting side effects.
 

R Cameron

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Still a lot of questions concerning the test people. How many normally wore a mask, social distanced, and stayed away from others during the trial? Can we really accept the high success rate?
That's why there's a control group that received a placebo, who would act the same way as those who received the vaccine. In both the Pfizer and Moderna cases, the recent results released are based on the number of people who have contracted Covid, then they check which group they were in. If 100 people (out of the thousands in the study) get Covid, and 95 of them got the placebo, and 5 of them got the vaccine, you say the vaccine is 95% effective. It's pretty simple really, and the numbers are large enough that it may be off several percent, but can't be a total fluke.

Evidently the vacs come with some very painful and physically affecting side effects.
Source?
 

fastpitch17

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That's why there's a control group that received a placebo, who would act the same way as those who received the vaccine. In both the Pfizer and Moderna cases, the recent results released are based on the number of people who have contracted Covid, then they check which group they were in. If 100 people (out of the thousands in the study) get Covid, and 95 of them got the placebo, and 5 of them got the vaccine, you say the vaccine is 95% effective. It's pretty simple really, and the numbers are large enough that it may be off several percent, but can't be a total fluke.


Source?
I am quite aware of how the statistics become the data presented and how they figure the statistics. What I said is that we have no way of knowing how each individual personally lived regarding covid. I am pretty confident they did not all live alike. Did some wear mask and others didn't. Did some stay at home and avoid contact with others while some just run around freely mixing with others. There can not be a legitimate control and testing group unless the companies can know every detail of the test subjects lives. This would then be included in the data. As far as I can see, it is not.

As for side effects, I understand that while the scientist report injection sight pain, the ones getting it says it is quite a bit of pain. Lately it has been reported that it can also cause long term fatigue. This was on TV.
Here is a link to side effects.
 

R Cameron

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There can not be a legitimate control and testing group unless the companies can know every detail of the test subjects lives. This would then be included in the data. As far as I can see, it is not.
That's not how studies like this are done. They had 40,000 people in the study and can't possibly track the behavior. If you use a small number of participants you can more realistically monitor and control for behavioral variables, but a small sample size is not reassuring for safety statistics. So they choose a large scale study, verifying safety for a far greater diversity of subjects, and the sheer scale of the numbers ensures all those minor behavioral differences average out, leaving an estimated efficacy with an acknowledged, though narrow, margin of error.
As for side effects, I understand that while the scientist report injection sight pain, the ones getting it says it is quite a bit of pain. Lately it has been reported that it can also cause long term fatigue. This was on TV.
Here is a link to side effects.
Thank you for the source. It sounds quite minor, similar to the MMR vaccine which is distributed in the tens or hundreds of millions every year.
 

waarmstrong

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Motley Fool, no doubt, a widely respected reporter of medical news.
 

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