DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

dafluff

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Jakarta Provincial government just passed a regulation (Perda), which authorizes fines for among others:
  1. Refusing Covid test, treatment or vaccination (max Rp 5m).
  2. Forcefully removing a Covid positive/probably body from hospital (max Rp 5m, or Rp 7.5m if violence is involved).
  3. Escaping isolation facility (max Rp 5m)
 

ChrisTex

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Does offering to go 500.478.146 count as refusing covid treatment? I would just be polite and allowing others to go first. :peace:
 

nd_eric_77

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Jakarta Provincial government just passed a regulation (Perda), which authorizes fines for among others:
  1. Refusing Covid test, treatment or vaccination (max Rp 5m).
  2. Forcefully removing a Covid positive/probably body from hospital (max Rp 5m, or Rp 7.5m if violence is involved).
  3. Escaping isolation facility (max Rp 5m)
#2 offers quite the window into Indonesian culture. Besides, the resourceful families will get the bodies the traditional way... by bribing morgue workers (which will be a lot cheaper than 5m).
 

dafluff

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Looks like we are going to the forced vaccination of the whole population.

Maybe not: Indonesia just cancelled basically all vaccine orders, except for 3 million doses from Sinovac. Previously they were going to buy about 300 million doses from Astra Zeneca, and the 3 Chinese manufacturers.

Also, the vaccine fine is just a Jakarta by-law, and remember that Jakarta also has by-laws against throwing garbage in the rivers. :ROFLMAO:

 

Helpful Herbert

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If 70% of residents could be vaccinated and if the vaccine was 70% effective in stopping people getting infected, immunity would be 49%, which is much lower than needed for herd immunity (70-80%).

The chances that 70% of people can get vaccinated within a year are zero, I would be surprised if it reaches 40%, given religious objections, ministry incompetence, logistical issues etc. [I just found out the government will not even make it free for most people]

I don't think any vaccine will reach 70% effectiveness, even flu vaccines are only 50% effective, and scinetists have decades of experience with flu.

40% * 50% = 20% immunity in the population which doesn't achieve anything.

So my conclusion is, vaccine or not, nothing much will change in the next couple of years. Covid will still be in the community and spreading, with peaks from time to time. Tourism and travel will be dead and WFH & online schooling will become the medium-term norm (until 2022-23 at least). I'd like to see a more optimistic scenario if there is one.
 
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nd_eric_77

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I think vaccination is going to be a non-negotiable requirement for anyone wishing to travel internationally; what do you folks think? (By the way, yes, there is a precedent for such a requirement; yellow-fever vaccinations are required for travel to & from some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.)
 

harryopal

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I think vaccination is going to be a non-negotiable requirement for anyone wishing to travel internationally; what do you folks think? (By the way, yes, there is a precedent for such a requirement; yellow-fever vaccinations are required for travel to & from some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.)

This will almost certainly be a requirement for international travel once a vaccine is available. In the 70s a smallpox and yellow certificate vaccine document was required for most travel. Having had a very unpleasant experience with one smallpox vaccination, once that was no longer a requirement, I avoided any vaccinations thereafter and have never had a flu vaccine. Not eager to step up for a Covid vaccine but if I needed to travel then I guess I would submit.

Helpful Herbert's gloomy assumption for the future is not misplaced. The economic distress and the impact on poor and unemployed people world wide will be enormous and so will be the spin off with increased crime as desperate people struggle to survive.
 

dafluff

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I think vaccination is going to be a non-negotiable requirement for anyone wishing to travel internationally; what do you folks think? (By the way, yes, there is a precedent for such a requirement; yellow-fever vaccinations are required for travel to & from some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.)

I think either proof of vaccination or mandatory self funded 14 day quarantine will indeed be the norm going forward. Especially for travel from Covid endemic countries, which Indonesia is 100% going to be.
 

ChrisTex

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I think vaccination is going to be a non-negotiable requirement for anyone wishing to travel internationally; what do you folks think? (By the way, yes, there is a precedent for such a requirement; yellow-fever vaccinations are required for travel to & from some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa.)

Before I went to Uganda in 2012, I had to get the Yellow Fever shot and a document saying I received the vaccination to show immigration upon arrival.

The issue in some countries will be, how to authenticate the document and know someone actually had the vaccination instead of paying money under the table.
 

Helpful Herbert

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Yes I did the same going to Uganda in 2004. I had a vaccination book where it was stamped. It is of course not too difficult to fake a stamp.

The second issue is the vaccination may reduce symptoms and reduce death rates, but it may not stop people catching the virus and passing it on to others.
 

R Cameron

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The issue in some countries will be, how to authenticate the document and know someone actually had the vaccination instead of paying money under the table.
This is a real possibility, but vaccination largely depends on a high percentage of compliance but the expectation is never 100%, so I don't think it will be a real problem if one or two percent of travelers forge documents. I don't imagine a significant number of people are willing to forge documents that could result in criminal charges in a foreign and unfamiliar country.
 

dannyboy

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If 70% of residents could be vaccinated and if the vaccine was 70% effective in stopping people getting infected, immunity would be 49%, which is much lower than needed for herd immunity (70-80%).

The chances that 70% of people can get vaccinated within a year are zero, I would be surprised if it reaches 40%, given religious objections, ministry incompetence, logistical issues etc. [I just found out the government will not even make it free for most people]

I don't think any vaccine will reach 70% effectiveness, even flu vaccines are only 50% effective, and scinetists have decades of experience with flu.

40% * 50% = 20% immunity in the population which doesn't achieve anything.

So my conclusion is, vaccine or not, nothing much will change in the next couple of years. Covid will still be in the community and spreading, with peaks from time to time. Tourism and travel will be dead and WFH & online schooling will become the medium-term norm (until 2022-23 at least). I'd like to see a more optimistic scenario if there is one.

This sounds gloom and doom but alas I couldn't imagine any other more optimistic scenario for Indonesia... It seems like the virus is already too widespread, the country is too complex and it is too late to introduce any further containment measure.
 

Dave70

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I heard that the government "instructed" airlines to reduce the price of airfare. And today until Sunday are "holidays" to encourage people to travel and spend their money. I guess the government is giving up the fight against COVID-19, and just wait for the vaccine. Are we going to see a surge in cases a week or two from now?
 

R Cameron

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So apart from Bali, there is no need for rapid tests. Probably still need it to travel internationally though.
That article only mentions land travel, Lion and Garuda still list tests as requirements and I have seen no news of that changing.
 

Balifrog

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This article suggest a new type of test will be required to enter Bali, starting this W.E. ?


"A new higher accuracy Antigen COVID-19 will be mandatory for all tourists wanting to enter Bali just in time for the holiday weekend"
 

dafluff

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Good article on airborne transmission with illustrations. A lot of things confirming what we have already guessed for months.

Summary: The risk of transmission increases with length of exposure and concentration of virus.

1. Exposure time. The longer you are in a room/area with a high concentration of virus, the higher your risk.
2. Ventilating area. A well ventilated area is much less risky. This is especially significant as winter in the northern hemisphere means people do not open windows, etc.
3. Wearing mask. Wearing masks helps reduce transmission, but is not enough if the exposure time is long.
4. Reducing capacity. Obviously fewer people in a given area means lower risk.
5. Talking loudly, yelling, singing expels more particles, and increase risk of transmission. In a school setting, it is worse if a teacher is the sick one, as they are more likely to talk loudly, talk more and move around the class than a student.


 

Henry_SLB

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"A new higher accuracy Antigen COVID-19 will be mandatory for all tourists wanting to enter Bali just in time for the holiday weekend"
The RT-PCR test is a can of worms once you start to drill down into the subject to see the problems. IMHO you do not need to be a doctor to understand how it works theoretically. Once you understand the basics such as viral load, Ct parameter, RNA, florescence, etc you can with time better understand the discussion around this test. A good place to look is work done by Ivor Cummins and Dr. Mina.

Ivor Cummins

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be.

Relax, it's not the end of the World which can be clearly seen in demographics of mortality clearly show.

 

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