EV in Indonesia

[Balifrog]

There is going to be a tipping point, probably sometime in 3 or 4 years, where all of the old car manufacturers will all go bust very quickly. Petrol stations will start closing due to not enough customers. EV cars will get cheaper and ICE cars will get more expensive due to losing economies of scale. Batteries will be able to last for 1m kilometers.
The realization that this is going to happen is why the big car manufacturers are already laying off staff and closing factories.

Mmmmm, this is thinking by ideology, without due diligence in the matter and omitting the financial, technical, human aspect of the subject.

Being since a few decades a very modest stock market amateur, I tend to dig into new trends. The dot.com bubble, 3 D printing, biosciences and of course the E.V. subject since the appearance of Tesla. Found Tesla at 25$. But fearing a fad, I didn't buy.

On the technical side, I was a technician on construction machinery, have a diploma as car mechanic, and of petrol / diesel engines tuning. So, I have a bit of understanding on the subject.

If you have read my post, you will have noted that in the US for example, E.V. vehicles represent only 10% of new car sales. So there is no way in 3 or 4 years EV vehicles will be the majority. Not speaking about what Trump could do, he being very much an oil man.

Countries like Norway achieved over 90%, but not really because the population fell in love with it, but more because it was economically forced into it. Strict restrictions on the use of ICE vehicles (restricted areas), high taxes on them and at the same time giving plenty incentives to buyers of E.V.
Government subsidies, no tax, no traffic restrictions, lower highway and parking fees etc...
Fun thing is that the Norwegian government could afford all this because of their immense revenues in Oil and Gas....

From the same source (through Seeking Alpha, a well-known financial website)

Global EV sales forecasts in the years ahead​

Global electric car sales reached 13.7m in 2023 and 16% market share (source)




A lot of "old" manufacturers lose money on their electric car sales.

You probably know and understand what are carbon credits ?

Note that a big part of Tesla's revenue comes from the sales of carbon credits :

Tesla Profits Dip But Carbon Credits Revenue Up, 38% of Net Income

Explore how Tesla's strategic focus on regulatory carbon credits, despite financial challenges, fuels its profitability.

carboncredits.com

In Europe the EU car manufacturers are financially obliged to manufacturer E.V. as otherwhile they will be fined heavily. A way around this is to buy the above carbon credits as above.


You will also know that an E.V. vehicle contains half the number of parts than an ICE vehicle. Compare an ICE engine with an electric motor.....
The human cost will be terrible.
=> less part = less assembly time = need less workers
=> less parts = less subcontractors

This will trickle down the supply chain, and a lot of people have / will lose their job.

I could also speak about the impact of mining of all the specific materials needed for E.V.s.
Ever seen an open pit mine ? Google "Grasberg mine Indonesia"

Not to mention that the vast majority of the rare earth material are mined and processed in China, so we are depending on them. You can build a "mega factory" for batteries in Europe or the US, but the majority of the components will have to be sourced in China.

I am not against E.V. but one has to remain factual, it is not the miracle solution.
Personally I would not buy one except maybe the Canoo and VW IdBuzz.

 

[Shadrach]

Mmmmm, this is thinking by ideology, without due diligence in the matter and omitting the financial, technical, human aspect of the subject.

Being since a few decades a very modest stock market amateur, I tend to dig into new trends. The dot.com bubble, 3 D printing, biosciences and of course the E.V. subject since the appearance of Tesla. Found Tesla at 25$. But fearing a fad, I didn't buy.

On the technical side, I was a technician on construction machinery, have a diploma as car mechanic, and of petrol / diesel engines tuning. So, I have a bit of understanding on the subject.

If you have read my post, you will have noted that in the US for example, E.V. vehicles represent only 10% of new car sales. So there is no way in 3 or 4 years EV vehicles will be the majority. Not speaking about what Trump could do, he being very much an oil man.

Countries like Norway achieved over 90%, but not really because the population fell in love with it, but more because it was economically forced into it. Strict restrictions on the use of ICE vehicles (restricted areas), high taxes on them and at the same time giving plenty incentives to buyers of E.V.
Government subsidies, no tax, no traffic restrictions, lower highway and parking fees etc...
Fun thing is that the Norwegian government could afford all this because of their immense revenues in Oil and Gas....

From the same source (through Seeking Alpha, a well-known financial website)

Global EV sales forecasts in the years ahead​

Global electric car sales reached 13.7m in 2023 and 16% market share (source)




A lot of "old" manufacturers lose money on their electric car sales.

You probably know and understand what are carbon credits ?

Note that a big part of Tesla's revenue comes from the sales of carbon credits :

Tesla Profits Dip But Carbon Credits Revenue Up, 38% of Net Income

Explore how Tesla's strategic focus on regulatory carbon credits, despite financial challenges, fuels its profitability.

carboncredits.com

In Europe the EU car manufacturers are financially obliged to manufacturer E.V. as otherwhile they will be fined heavily. A way around this is to buy the above carbon credits as above.


You will also know that an E.V. vehicle contains half the number of parts than an ICE vehicle. Compare an ICE engine with an electric motor.....
The human cost will be terrible.
=> less part = less assembly time = need less workers
=> less parts = less subcontractors

This will trickle down the supply chain, and a lot of people have / will lose their job.

I could also speak about the impact of mining of all the specific materials needed for E.V.s.
Ever seen an open pit mine ? Google "Grasberg mine Indonesia"

Not to mention that the vast majority of the rare earth material are mined and processed in China, so we are depending on them. You can build a "mega factory" for batteries in Europe or the US, but the majority of the components will have to be sourced in China.

I am not against E.V. but one has to remain factual, it is not the miracle solution.
Personally I would not buy one except maybe the Canoo and VW IdBuzz.

Has any research gone into generating enough electricity from the magnetic energy field around the Earth, to power a EV?

 

[harryopal1]

Has any research gone into generating enough electricity from the magnetic energy field around the Earth, to power a EV?

Sounds like a science fiction film. I can see where we quickly tilt the earth of its axis with Singapore becoming the frozen north pole and southern Chile being the south pole. It reminds me of that other lunatic idea of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) as first proposed by the Russian climatologist Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko in 1974 to cause a temporary cooling effect on Earth's climate.

Ohh yes, by all means trust the scientists.

 

[Hawk256]

Has any research gone into generating enough electricity from the magnetic energy field around the Earth, to power a EV?

Nicola Tesla went to his grave swearing that he could achieve global wireless power. He did achieve wireless transmission for over 30 miles at one point. He claimed that Westinghouse and GE were working together to bury his work. An interesting foot note after his death is that the US government confiscated all of his work and 3 full crates of it were never retuned ot his heirs. Obviously this isn't looking at getting power from the magnetic fields but would still have resulted in almost free power.

 

[Helpful Herbert]

You literally just posted a graph which shows how and when EVs will take over. Once 68% of all cars sold are EVs (2035), what exactly do you think the old car industry will look like? How many petrol stations will there be?
The tipping point may not be 3-4 years, it may be 10 years, but it's when, not if.

 

[Shadrach]

Nicola Tesla went to his grave swearing that he could achieve global wireless power. He did achieve wireless transmission for over 30 miles at one point. He claimed that Westinghouse and GE were working together to bury his work. An interesting foot note after his death is that the US government confiscated all of his work and 3 full crates of it were never retuned ot his heirs. Obviously this isn't looking at getting power from the magnetic fields but would still have resulted in almost free power.

So true about Nikola Tesla, he was so far advanced in knowing electricity, it was almost magical! He somehow was connecting the energy from the atmosphere to the ground. His tower was proof of that. Maybe it was using Magnetism?
The problem was, his ideas didn't fit well with Westinghouse, GE, and Edison. They wanted to control electricity through wires and transmission towers, and relay stations. So they bought his patents, so he had money to come up with new inventions. He designed the massive generators still in use at Niagara falls. But they are in Westinghouse's name.
What they did to him was cruel. They destroyed his tower, because the powers that be at that time, didn't want people to have free electricity. And the amazing thing was, he did all of this in the 1890's.

Sadly, he lived out his final days in a hotel room, as a poor man.
Musk, should never have been allowed to use that great man's name for his EV's.

 

[Shadrach]

You literally just posted a graph which shows how and when EVs will take over. Once 68% of all cars sold are EVs (2035), what exactly do you think the old car industry will look like? How many petrol stations will there be?
The tipping point may not be 3-4 years, it may be 10 years, but it's when, not if.

Just think how nice it would be without exhaust and loud engines, no more oil spills in the Ocean's. No more drilling near children's schools, people's wells not getting polluted?

 

[Balifrog]

You literally just posted a graph which shows how and when EVs will take over

No, how some experts expect....etc

Good luck forecasting the future 10 years in advance.
BTW, Europe and the US represent a very small part of the world population...
You think that the African continent, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Middle East, will be 68 % EV in 10 years ?
Have you looked at the demographic growth of Africa ?

 

[Balifrog]

2 articles on the battery subject.

Prices will go down, but Europe seems out of the game....

EV battery prices are plummeting and that's great news for buyers

EV battery prices are plummeting, falling faster than most expected. This year will mark the steepest decline since 2017. With...

electrek.co

Europe’s battery dreams die, but China cashes in

Europe’s vision of building homegrown EV batteries to cut its reliance on China is dying. But China is more than ready to step in where other companies have failed.

electrek.co

 

[centurion]

Sadly, he lived out his final days in a hotel room, as a poor man.
Musk, should never have been allowed to use that great man's name for his EV's.

Tesla died in relative poverty but also living more than 20 years in Waldorf Astoria, one of, if not the most expensive, hotel at ther time. He died in New Yorker, not actually a slum.

Musk bought Tesla, so he did not named the company.

 

[centurion]

No, how some experts expect....etc

Good luck forecasting the future 10 years in advance.
BTW, Europe and the US represent a very small part of the world population...
You think that the African continent, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Middle East, will be 68 % EV in 10 years ?
Have you looked at the demographic growth of Africa ?

China(more than 50% of all car sales are EVs), Vietnam, Indonesia...Australia and Middle east with vast solar potential?

 

[centurion]

Intereting PWC research about Indonesia

https://www.pwc.com/id/en/publications/automotive/indonesia-electric-vehicle-readiness-consumer-insights-2024.pdf

 

[harryopal1]

Intereting PWC research about Indonesia

https://www.pwc.com/id/en/publications/automotive/indonesia-electric-vehicle-readiness-consumer-insights-2024.pdf

39 pages? Would you like to summarize it?

 

[centurion]

39 pages? Would you like to summarize it?

Bottomline EVs have a good perspective.

 

[harryopal1]

Bottomline EVs have a good perspective.

Thanks but maybe a paragraph.

 

[harryopal1]

I copied the article to AI Gemini and asked for a summary of the conclusions.

"This is a document about Indonesia's Electric Vehicle Readiness and Consumer Insights 2024. It discusses the current EV landscape, consumer demographics, and adoption trends. It also discusses the role of technology and digital services, the emerging used EV market, and the challenges of charging infrastructure and range anxiety. 1 Some of the important points from the document are: 1) Indonesia is a key market for electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia Pacific region. 2) The Indonesian government is supportive of the development of the EV market. 3) There is a growing demand for EVs among Indonesian consumers. 4) However, there are still some challenges to overcome, such as the lack of charging infrastructure and the high cost of EVs. "
1. www.pwc.com
https://www.pwc.com/id/en/publicati...-vehicle-readiness-consumer-insights-2024.pdf

 

[Bob]

Just think how nice it would be without exhaust and loud engines, no more oil spills in the Ocean's. No more drilling near children's schools, people's wells not getting polluted?

Those are nice thoughts. But...no existing source of power generation today is without its environmental disadvantages. Geothermal seems the most benign but it's not going to be a major supply source anytime soon.
EV and specifically battery production causes its own deadly pollution and environmental destruction. Look at Weda Bay today vs. ten years ago for example.

 

[Balifrog]

I copied the article to AI Gemini and asked for a summary of the conclusions.

"This is a document about Indonesia's Electric Vehicle Readiness and Consumer Insights 2024. It discusses the current EV landscape, consumer demographics, and adoption trends. It also discusses the role of technology and digital services, the emerging used EV market, and the challenges of charging infrastructure and range anxiety. 1 Some of the important points from the document are: 1) Indonesia is a key market for electric vehicles (EVs) in the Asia Pacific region. 2) The Indonesian government is supportive of the development of the EV market. 3) There is a growing demand for EVs among Indonesian consumers. 4) However, there are still some challenges to overcome, such as the lack of charging infrastructure and the high cost of EVs. "
1. www.pwc.com
https://www.pwc.com/id/en/publicati...-vehicle-readiness-consumer-insights-2024.pdf

Typical AI answer, using a lot of words for saying very little, a summary of generalities.

 

[Shadrach]

Those are nice thoughts. But...no existing source of power generation today is without its environmental disadvantages. Geothermal seems the most benign but it's not going to be a major supply source anytime soon.
EV and specifically battery production causes its own deadly pollution and environmental destruction. Look at Weda Bay today vs. ten years ago for example.

Yes they are good thoughts. You are right about all sources of power generation have their disadvantages. But, something has to be done, to stop our dependency on fossil fuels, and Nuclear power.
Instead of wasting Billions of dollars on Mars exploration, spend that money on a clean, less polluting, power source.
You must admit it would be nice to not be using petroleum based fuel for vehicles, and electricity. Wouldn't people like quiet, non carbon monoxide, producing vehicles? Yes Nuclear doesn't produce carbon emissions, but the possibility of a major catastrophic meltdown, and release of deadly radiation, is just not acceptable.
Is it so wrong to want a safe, clean planet, for future generations?

 

[Helpful Herbert]

I remember a professional photographer friend of mine in about 2005 saying that he would always use film, because digital just couldn't replace it. I guess the bosses of Kodak thought the same.

At a certain point there was a tipping point, from memory it was about 2007-9. After that, good luck in finding a film camera, film to put in it, a place to develop it etc.

EVs are not at that point yet, but it will come sooner than later, and is inevitable.