DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

Dave70

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Dec 4, 2018
Messages
334
In Brazil Sinovac is only 50.3% effective. Indonesia seems to have backed the worst of the vaccines, but it's his probably too late to back out and buy a better one instead.

I guess it depends on the definition of each individual about what is the 'better one'. Is your priority on efficacy or on safety? One is better on efficacy (mRNA vaccine) while the other is better on safety (inactivated vaccine).

According to a CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the current influenza vaccine has been 45% effective overall against 2019-2020 seasonal influenza A and B viruses. https://www.aafp.org/news/health-of-the-public/20200226interimfluve.html

50.3% is just marginally better than 45% for the flu shot.

Now the problem could be infection after being vaccinated. On December 18, a San Diego emergency room nurse was given a shot of the Covid-19 vaccine. A week later, he tested positive for the virus, CNN affiliate KGTV reported. https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/health/covid-vaccinated-infected-wellness/index.html

Is it possible the result in Brazil is due to infection after being vaccinated?

This could be a big problem in Indonesia because most people will stop practicing safety protocols AFTER getting vaccinated (first shot). Then what happens is they got infected (before the second shot) and blame it on the vaccine (and China).
 

Helpful Herbert

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2019
Messages
498
Don't forget they are vaccinating the part of the population with lower death rates (18-59). The ones at higher risk (60+) will not even get vaccinated. Since Sinovac probably stops really serious cases, while not being too effective at stopping people getting infected, it's hard to see the point in this vaccination programme. Since people will certainly start going out in public once they get the injection, it could well lead to an increase in infections in the 18-59 population (while not reducing the death rate, since the older people who are more likely to get seriously ill will not be vaccinated).
 

dafluff

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 13, 2016
Messages
3,942
In Brazil Sinovac is only 50.3% effective. Indonesia seems to have backed the worst of the vaccines, but it's his probably too late to back out and buy a better one instead.

The data needs to be examined, as well as the methodology compared. It is bizarre that the efficacy is reported between 90% (Turkey) to 50% (Brazil).

For the Brazil data apparently, the initial 78% number was counting "very mild" cases immune. Sometimes termed "clinical immunity" this is the situation where the virus is present, but very little or no harm is done to the patient. So asymptomatic cases. AFAIK, neither Moderna nor Pfitzer tested asymptomatic cases but based their result only on clinical symptoms. Meaning their efficacy could very well be lower if there were asymptomatic cases in their vaccinated group.

The good news, however, is that Sinovac apparently does ~100% prevent severe disease, can be produced without specialized technology, does not need exotic cooling solutions, and has really low incidence of side effects.

Caveat: all this based on "press release" type data, rather than full-on published results, and the presentations by Sinovac have not been very transparent, to say the least.
 

waarmstrong

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 17, 2016
Messages
2,439
The Sinovac vaccine was only 65.3% effective in the Indonesian trial. Better than nothing, but not great compared to the other vaccines.


Rate of efficacy is calculated as follows:

People infected who were not vaccinated (NV) - People infected who were vaccinated (V)
______________________________________________________________________________________________
People infected who were not vaccinated (NV)

So if in the Indonesian trial of 1600 people, 100 got infected, and of these 74 were not vaccinated and 26 were vaccinated, then the efficacy rate would be (74-26)/74 = 48/74 = 0.65 (i.e. 65%).
As vaccinations go, its my understanding that a 65% efficacy rate is not all that bad.
 

Dave70

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Dec 4, 2018
Messages
334
Sinovac's COVID-19 vaccine is 100 percent effective in preventing severe and moderate infections, 77.96 percent effective in preventing mild cases, and has an overall efficacy of 50.4 percent in Brazil's final-stage trials.

Experts say the result is good enough considering almost all participants in Brazil are high-risk medical workers, and the 77.96 efficacy for mild-case protection means the vaccine can reduce 78 percent of people from needing hospitalization.

We have today one of the best vaccines in the world, Dimas Covas, director of the Butantan Institute in Brazil, said during a news conference on Tuesday.

 

nd_eric_77

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 19, 2016
Messages
489
I know I mentioned this before, but does anybody know why the Jakarta Post has completely abandoned its daily Covid numbers articles? The frequently outdated number at the bottom of the page only lists national numbers, but I am also interested in the provincial numbers (especially DKI Jakarta).
 

dafluff

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 13, 2016
Messages
3,942
I know I mentioned this before, but does anybody know why the Jakarta Post has completely abandoned its daily Covid numbers articles? The frequently outdated number at the bottom of the page only lists national numbers, but I am also interested in the provincial numbers (especially DKI Jakarta).
I don't know about Jakarta Post, but the health ministry puts up the numbers after their daily press conference (around 5 pm WIB) here:

 

Dave70

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Dec 4, 2018
Messages
334
I just watched parts of the interview by CNA of a BioNTech executive which said that immunity lasts at least a year (only). And also read an article on Forbes saying the same thing for Moderna. In other words, yearly booster shot may be necessary for mRNA vaccine.

The CNA program is 'In Conversation' aired about an hour and a half ago.

The Forbes article is at https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...-provides-one-years-immunity/?sh=744ca4468aed
 

Vulgarian

Active Member
Joined
Nov 23, 2017
Messages
83
Yes. And of course the real number is unknown, but much higher. Restrictions don't eliminate the virus. They try to slow the rate of infection so that the health system isn't overwhelmed. This also buys time to get programs like track and trace (lol, chance would be a fine thing) or vaccination off the ground.

This bit is purely anecdotal, but a few people I know have been turned away from multiple Jakarta hospitals due to lack of space.
 

ChrisTex

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
671
I know in the Dallas area, they are sending people home much sooner than normal after an operation due to the worry about covid spreading.
 

Helpful Herbert

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2019
Messages
498
Yes. And of course the real number is unknown, but much higher. Restrictions don't eliminate the virus. They try to slow the rate of infection so that the health system isn't overwhelmed. This also buys time to get programs like track and trace (lol, chance would be a fine thing) or vaccination off the ground.

This bit is purely anecdotal, but a few people I know have been turned away from multiple Jakarta hospitals due to lack of space.
Yes, even those who can pay for treatment themselves are now being sent to other cities like Bogor or even Surabaya. And they have to drive there themselves. (I've heard of two such cases in the last few days).
 

gemima

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 25, 2016
Messages
258
I just watched parts of the interview by CNA of a BioNTech executive which said that immunity lasts at least a year (only). And also read an article on Forbes saying the same thing for Moderna. In other words, yearly booster shot may be necessary for mRNA vaccine.

The CNA program is 'In Conversation' aired about an hour and a half ago.

The Forbes article is at https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...-provides-one-years-immunity/?sh=744ca4468aed
This is one part of the vaccines that they just can't predict in advance. Only time will tell. I imagine it'll have longer-lasting immunity but eventually, over time COVID will mutate like the flu virus does (it does mutate a lot slower thankfully). If we can get on top of the virus with vaccination/ herd immunity this may be enough to eradicate it but honestly, with so much vaccine hesitancy (and mask resistance etc.) I think COVID will be here to stay long term.
 

Balifrog

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2017
Messages
320
This is one part of the vaccines that they just can't predict in advance. Only time will tell. I imagine it'll have longer-lasting immunity but eventually, over time COVID will mutate like the flu virus does (it does mutate a lot slower thankfully). If we can get on top of the virus with vaccination/ herd immunity this may be enough to eradicate it but honestly, with so much vaccine hesitancy (and mask resistance etc.) I think COVID will be here to stay long term.

It is here to stay. Same as 100's of other diseases.
Not a problem of masks or "social distancing".
So, we better relax, continue our lives as normal and accept that you can die from Covid.
Same as 100's of thousands die of cancer, heart attacks, strokes, diabetes, car accidents etc.....without anybody making a drama about it.
Shutting down the whole world economy for this is pure madness.
Look at the age of 85% of the "victims".....Old people die, it's nature.

And before you ask, I am 68, so I closer to the exit than to the entrance, and fully aware of that. Hence I continue to enjoy my whisky, my restaurants, and would continue travel if some idiots did not stop me.

And I survived a "very exotic" life in SEA since 30 y without vaccine (or condom), so I am not gonna change now.
But I have no problem with people doing it another way, just DON'T impose your views to me. To each his own.
 

gemima

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 25, 2016
Messages
258
And I survived a "very exotic" life in SEA since 30 y without vaccine (or condom), so I am not gonna change now.
But I have no problem with people doing it another way, just DON'T impose your views to me. To each his own.
You have made your feelings on this topic very clear. Didn't realize your skepticism included condoms. I suppose you aren't the one left holding a baby after having a very exotic time in SE Asia.
 

dafluff

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 13, 2016
Messages
3,942
You have made your feelings on this topic very clear. Didn't realize your skepticism included condoms. I suppose you aren't the one left holding a baby after having a very exotic time in SE Asia.

Turns out the segments of Covidiots, Anti-vaxxers, and self-centered egoists are closely overlapping. Who would've thought? :eek:
 

R Cameron

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 19, 2016
Messages
804
Look at the age of 85% of the "victims".....Old people die, it's nature.
Even Fox News is willing to acknowledge that death is far from the only ailment resulting from Covid-19

No one will impose their views on you within the confines of your own home. But when you want to exit your home and be a part of society, some responsibilities come with that privilege. You seem to want to impose your views on the society around you.
 

Dave70

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Dec 4, 2018
Messages
334
Sulawesi governor experienced the symptom (loss of taste) for 3 days, ate some local delicacies even if it was tasteless for him (plus vitamin supplements). After 2 days his taste returned, appetite is also back, then he asked for PCR test which result is negative.

Either he recovered really quick, or the PCR test is inaccurate. His wife is positive, so it’s possible he was also infected (but not included in the statistics), due to his symptom as well.


I heard new variants from South Africa or UK cannot be detected in PCR test, don't know if this is already confirmed by scientists.
 

dafluff

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 13, 2016
Messages
3,942
Either he recovered really quick, or the PCR test is inaccurate. His wife is positive, so it’s possible he was also infected (but not included in the statistics), due to his symptom as well.

I heard new variants from South Africa or UK cannot be detected in PCR test, don't know if this is already confirmed by scientists.
It is not a secret that PCR tests can give false negatives (about 20% of the time), and also false positives.

As long as it has genetic material, it can be detected by a PCR test.
 

Follow Us

Latest Expat Indo Articles

Latest Activity

New posts Latest threads

Latest Tweets by Expat Indo

Online Now

Newest Members

Forum Statistics

Threads
4,723
Messages
72,163
Members
2,071
Latest member
poco - poco
Top Bottom