Vaccine effectiveness and Herd Immunity

[Puspawarna]

Moderation note:
This post was moved here from another thread because the topic of this thread is better suited for the post.
End Moderation note.


Please show your reputable source for the claim that vaccinated people are just as likely to spread the virus as unvaccinated people. According to the CDC, Studies so far show that vaccinated people are 8 times less likely to be infected.

I absolutely get that vaccinated people can still spread the virus. The vaccination is not a magic wand. But it is a huge help in the fight against the spread of the virus.

If vaccinations don't stop spread of the virus, why are states in the US with lower vaccination rates having higher rates of infection than states where vaccination rates are higher?

I suppose you could argue (though I don't think the evidence supports it) that "oh, infection rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated regions are equal, but since the vaccination prevents against severe illness, vaccinated people aren't getting tested, which artificially depresses the infection rate."

Good luck finding credible evidence to support that, but let's say it is in fact correct. Clearly, when a lot of people choose not to get vaccinated, there is a higher incidence of severe illness. And this means medical resources are used up and that people with non-Covid ailments can't get treated.

Refusal to get vaccinated because of some bizarre idea that it infringes upon personal freedom is ignorant at the very least. Contemptibly selfish is probably a better characterization.

ETA: Not sure why I was able to post if the thread is locked (I did not see a lock when I went to write my post). Simulpost? Magic mod powers? In any case it was unintentional. I'll shut up now.

 

[Nimbus]

Call me callous, but I’m almost beyond the point of caring about people who choose to not be vaccinated. I still care to the extent that they’re beginning to clog up hospitals, denying treatment to patients with other urgent conditions. I’m also worried about kids who are too young to be vaccinated.

Hospitals in central Indiana are approaching “crisis standards of care”. In layman’s term it means they’re about to pick and choose who gets treated and who is left to fend for himself, because they don’t have enough doctors, nurses, and beds.

 

[R Cameron]

Call me callous, but I’m almost beyond the point of caring about people who choose to not be vaccinated. I still care to the extent that they’re beginning to clog up hospitals, denying treatment to patients with other urgent conditions. I’m also worried about kids who are too young to be vaccinated.

Hospitals in central Indiana are approaching “crisis standards of care”. In layman’s term it means they’re about to pick and choose who gets treated and who is left to fend for himself, because they don’t have enough doctors, nurses, and beds.

I feel terrible for the doctors and nurses.

 

[Nimbus]

I feel terrible for the doctors and nurses.

Many of them are experiencing burnout, some even committed suicide.

They are working extra hard to save as many people as they can, only to be denigrated by anti vaxxers accusing them of perpetuating the ‘conspiracy’.

I only wish anti vaxxers who catch covid would refrain from going to the hospital. If you don’t believe in modern medicine and doctors, please, please be consistent and stay away from the hospital when you get sick. Go to your politicians, internet conspiracy experts, quack doctors, and witch doctors for treatment.

 

[Balifrog]

Call me callous, but I’m almost beyond the point of caring about people who choose to not be vaccinated. I still care to the extent that they’re beginning to clog up hospitals, denying treatment to patients with other urgent conditions. I’m also worried about kids who are too young to be vaccinated.

Hospitals in central Indiana are approaching “crisis standards of care”. In layman’s term it means they’re about to pick and choose who gets treated and who is left to fend for himself, because they don’t have enough doctors, nurses, and beds.

Blablablabla......

Maybe one of the more important reasons is this ?

Hospital bed density select countries 2019 | Statista

The countries with the highest density of hospital beds worldwide include Japan, Korea, Russia, and Germany.

www.statista.com

"The countries with the highest density of hospital beds worldwide include Japan, Korea, Russia, and Germany. Japan has around 13.1 hospital beds per 1,000 population. On the other hand, the United States reported just 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 population."

Same goes for doctors and nurse .....

The U.S. Has Fewer Physicians and Hospital Beds Per Capita Than Italy and Other Countries Overwhelmed by COVID-19 | KFF

A new analysis and chart collection finds that the U.S. has fewer hospital beds and practicing physicians per capita than many similarly large and wealthy countries with health care systems already strained by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

www.kff.org

On this list the US is in the 80th position for hospital beds. Behind the Bahamas, Swaziland and the Rep of the Congo ......

Countries Compared by Health > Hospital beds > Per 1,000 people. International Statistics at NationMaster.com

Hospital beds include inpatient beds available in public, private, general, and specialized hospitals and rehabilitation centers. In most cases beds for both acute and chronic care are included.

www.nationmaster.com

Bon, on the other hand you have the biggest number of nuclear submarines ! It's all about priorities I guess ?

 

[Nimbus]

Blablablabla......

Maybe one of the more important reasons is this ?

Hospital bed density select countries 2019 | Statista

The countries with the highest density of hospital beds worldwide include Japan, Korea, Russia, and Germany.

www.statista.com

"The countries with the highest density of hospital beds worldwide include Japan, Korea, Russia, and Germany. Japan has around 13.1 hospital beds per 1,000 population. On the other hand, the United States reported just 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 population."

Same goes for doctors and nurse .....

The U.S. Has Fewer Physicians and Hospital Beds Per Capita Than Italy and Other Countries Overwhelmed by COVID-19 | KFF

A new analysis and chart collection finds that the U.S. has fewer hospital beds and practicing physicians per capita than many similarly large and wealthy countries with health care systems already strained by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

www.kff.org

View attachment 2223


On this list the US is in the 80th position for hospital beds. Behind the Bahamas, Swaziland and the Rep of the Congo ......

Countries Compared by Health > Hospital beds > Per 1,000 people. International Statistics at NationMaster.com

Hospital beds include inpatient beds available in public, private, general, and specialized hospitals and rehabilitation centers. In most cases beds for both acute and chronic care are included.

www.nationmaster.com

Bon, on the other hand you have the biggest number of nuclear submarines ! It's all about priorities I guess ?

Hospital system in USA is private, except for military and veterans. The number of hospital beds are closely matched to existing demand, and prior to covid there was no shortage. Private hospitalization is extremely expensive, so people go to the hospital only for emergencies and serious procedures. Due to this costing structure, USA actually has the most critical care beds in the world. These are the beds needed for Covid patients.

The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita [Infographic]

As the COVID-19 outbreak pushes Italy's ICU bed capacity to breaking point, which countries have the highest number of critical care beds per capita to cope with the extra pressure?

www.forbes.com

So no, shortage of ICU beds is mostly caused by hypocritical anti vaxxers, not due to the number of nuclear submarines.

 

[Balifrog]

Hospital system in USA is private, except for military and veterans. The number of hospital beds are closely matched to existing demand, and prior to covid there was no shortage. Private hospitalization is extremely expensive, so people go to the hospital only for emergencies and serious procedures. Due to this costing structure, USA actually has the most critical care beds in the world. These are the beds needed for Covid patients.

The Countries With The Most Critical Care Beds Per Capita [Infographic]

As the COVID-19 outbreak pushes Italy's ICU bed capacity to breaking point, which countries have the highest number of critical care beds per capita to cope with the extra pressure?

www.forbes.com

So no, shortage of ICU beds is mostly caused by hypocritical anti vaxxers, not due to the number of nuclear submarines.

Agreed with the Forbes graph.

BUT, the BIG thing with Covid is early detection and early treatment BEFORE it hits the lungs because then people will need ICU treatment.
So you need doctors, plenty hospital walk in availability to treat the problem from the first signs on. Not wait till it becomes critical.

Edit : The fact that the public healthcare system in the US is very poor (meaning no social security system like in our "socialist" European countries), and private care is prohibitive probably has led to people consulting only when the Covid arrives at a critical stage, at which point the survival rate is rather low. Add to that an enormous obesity problem which we know is one of the main comorbidities in case of Covid.

Anyway, seems you just beat the numbers of the Spanish flu ? Dubious numbers again.

PS : Is there a website / government organization that record yearly the TOTAL deaths at country level ? Something like the UK's I.N.S. or French INSEE

 

[gemima]

PS : Is there a website / government organization that record yearly the TOTAL deaths at country level ? Something like the UK's I.N.S. or French INSEE

This paper has looked into this: https://elifesciences.org/articles/69336#fig3s1

Relies on this data set (scroll down - the first part of the page is confusing) - it gathers data from over 100 nations (not including indo): https://github.com/akarlinsky/world_mortality

Some graphs from the dataset showing normal deaths (grey line 2015-2019) and whats happened in 2020 (red line) and 2021 (purple):

 

[Hawk256]

Call me callous, but I’m almost beyond the point of caring about people who choose to not be vaccinated. I still care to the extent that they’re beginning to clog up hospitals, denying treatment to patients with other urgent conditions. I’m also worried about kids who are too young to be vaccinated.

Hospitals in central Indiana are approaching “crisis standards of care”. In layman’s term it means they’re about to pick and choose who gets treated and who is left to fend for himself, because they don’t have enough doctors, nurses, and beds.

Ahh, the tolerant left speaks. I guess my body, my choice has a very limited scope of being applicable.

 

[Nimbus]

Ahh, the tolerant left speaks. I guess my body, my choice has a very limited scope of being applicable.

Are pregnancies contagious?

As a steadfast proponent of the 2nd amendment, coming from a family almost eliminated by actual communists, I’m no ‘lefty’. I am, however, anti ignorance and therefore very anti trump.

 

[ChrisTex]

Infants might be able to get the vaccine soon.

Moderna chief executive sees pandemic over in a year - newspaper

Moderna Inc Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel thinks the coronavirus pandemic could be over in a year as increased vaccine production ensures global supplies, he told the Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Z...

finance.yahoo.com

Now with it being over in a year, I am fairly sure we have heard that before.

 

[Nimbus]

Agreed with the Forbes graph.

BUT, the BIG thing with Covid is early detection and early treatment BEFORE it hits the lungs because then people will need ICU treatment.
So you need doctors, plenty hospital walk in availability to treat the problem from the first signs on. Not wait till it becomes critical.

Edit : The fact that the public healthcare system in the US is very poor (meaning no social security system like in our "socialist" European countries), and private care is prohibitive probably has led to people consulting only when the Covid arrives at a critical stage, at which point the survival rate is rather low. Add to that an enormous obesity problem which we know is one of the main comorbidities in case of Covid.

Anyway, seems you just beat the numbers of the Spanish flu ? Dubious numbers again.

PS : Is there a website / government organization that record yearly the TOTAL deaths at country level ? Something like the UK's I.N.S. or French INSEE

Adding regular beds is not easy but doable with enough money, so that’s not the problem. Doubling the number of doctors and nurses in months is simply impossible. Most hospitals in USA are relying on travelling nurses today, because they can’t find enough locally on a permanent basis.

The group of people against Covid vaccination (they were never against other vaccinations that didn’t affect Trump) is the very same group against government managed medicine. Their party has been working very hard to dismantle ‘Obamacare’, which is the first attempt at subsidizing healthcare for everyone. They invented the term ‘socialized medicine’ to denigrate universal healthcare, to obscure the fact that USA is the only member of NATO without government managed healthcare. Yeah, what a bunch of socialists.

Obesity has been an issue for ages and will remain so for longer. It doesn’t change the fact that 90-95% of people clogging the hospitals are not vaccinated. It takes two injections (or one with J&J vaccine) to solve this issue, and people want to focus on obesity that requires change in lifestyle and often change in income? Get real. This is just one of the many excuses and distractions by anti vaxxers. I actually heard the obesity argument from a Trump supporter a while back. It was disingenuous because these people were the very first to protest New York City when it attempted to ban soda drink cups larger than half a liter.

 

[Balifrog]

Adding regular beds is not easy but doable with enough money, so that’s not the problem. Doubling the number of doctors and nurses in months is simply impossible. Most hospitals in USA are relying on travelling nurses today, because they can’t find enough locally on a permanent basis.

The group of people against Covid vaccination (they were never against other vaccinations that didn’t affect Trump) is the very same group against government managed medicine. Their party has been working very hard to dismantle ‘Obamacare’, which is the first attempt at subsidizing healthcare for everyone. They invented the term ‘socialized medicine’ to denigrate universal healthcare, to obscure the fact that USA is the only member of NATO without government managed healthcare. Yeah, what a bunch of socialists.

Obesity has been an issue for ages and will remain so for longer. It doesn’t change the fact that 90-95% of people clogging the hospitals are not vaccinated. It takes two injections (or one with J&J vaccine) to solve this issue, and people want to focus on obesity that requires change in lifestyle and often change in income? Get real. This is just one of the many excuses and distractions by anti vaxxers. I actually heard the obesity argument from a Trump supporter a while back. It was disingenuous because these people were the very first to protest New York City when it attempted to ban soda drink cups larger than half a liter.

OK, usual American answer...bring it back to politics.

 

[Nimbus]

OK, usual American answer...bring it back to politics.

Ok, usual Balifrog answer, ignorant laugh with no informative content. I live in America, so I know the situation here. My knowledge doesn’t just come from reading internet articles.

 

[Balifrog]

An interesting report from the New England Journal of Medicine ( I suppose our forum expert are familiar with this medical journal, one of the world's top ones)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2112981

Extract (but I recommend you read the whole report) :

". From March 1 to July 31, 2021, a total of 227 UCSDH health care workers tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse-transcriptase–quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-qPCR) assay of nasal swabs; 130 of the 227 workers (57.3%) were fully vaccinated. Symptoms were present in 109 of the 130 fully vaccinated workers (83.8%) and in 80 of the 90 unvaccinated workers (88.9%). (The remaining 7 workers were only partially vaccinated.) No deaths were reported in either group; one unvaccinated person was hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2–related symptoms"

This confirms what I have always stated :

• The vaccine is NOT the universal, miracle solution
• The vaccine effectiveness is probably not more than 6 months after the 2nd jab.
• The vaccine does NOT protect you from catching the virus and testing positive, it protects you (in most cases) from getting critically ill.

So, the last point confirms IMO that the various apps, health passports now requested in many countries to enter various premises is complete B.S. as a vaccinated person can easily be positive and pass it on to any other person.

Plenty other interesting points in this report.

PS : The above link is directly to the pdf report, if it doesn't work try this one :

https://www.nejm.org/search?q=Resurgence%20of%20sars%20cov%202%20infection%20among%20highly%20vaccinated%20health%20system%20workforce

 

[Dave70]

Something interesting from Norway https://www.visitnorway.com/plan-your-trip/coronavirus-and-travelling-to-norway/

• All travellers from European and other approved (purple-rated) countries who are fully vaccinated or who have documentation confirming that they have been infected with COVID-19 during the last six months, and who have valid, digital documentation of this, do not need to quarantine or undergo testing.

Does it mean getting infected is as good as getting the vaccine (as far as immunity is concerned)?

 

[nd_eric_77]

Something interesting from Norway https://www.visitnorway.com/plan-your-trip/coronavirus-and-travelling-to-norway/

• All travellers from European and other approved (purple-rated) countries who are fully vaccinated or who have documentation confirming that they have been infected with COVID-19 during the last six months, and who have valid, digital documentation of this, do not need to quarantine or undergo testing.

Does it mean getting infected is as good as getting the vaccine (as far as immunity is concerned)?

Yes. I do not know why it is such a controversial idea, but surviving an infection from an actual virus will likely generate as much or more of an immune response as an attenuated virus vaccine (eg: Sinovac) would.

 

[Balifrog]

Something interesting from Norway https://www.visitnorway.com/plan-your-trip/coronavirus-and-travelling-to-norway/

• All travellers from European and other approved (purple-rated) countries who are fully vaccinated or who have documentation confirming that they have been infected with COVID-19 during the last six months, and who have valid, digital documentation of this, do not need to quarantine or undergo testing.

Does it mean getting infected is as good as getting the vaccine (as far as immunity is concerned)?

Even better according to certain sources.
But some other sources (reliable) mention people having been infected and ill 2 times.
Probably depends a lot of ones immunity system and the presence / absence of existing comorbidities ?
But here also, note the limit "last 6 months" .....

 

[ChrisTex]

So, the last point confirms IMO that the various apps, health passports now requested in many countries to enter various premises is complete B.S. as a vaccinated person can easily be positive and pass it on to any other person.

Scare tactics, way to gain control while slowly stripping people of their right without them knowing/making it look like it is for the better good of society/the end times for different religions.

 

[R Cameron]

This confirms what I have always stated :

• The vaccine is NOT the universal, miracle solution

True. No serious vaccine proponent has ever said it is. Though it is, by far, the best intervention we have.

• The vaccine effectiveness is probably not more than 6 months after the 2nd jab.

False. Antibodies wane, but memory T cells and B cells remain, likely for many years. Protection against infection with Pfizer vaccination was reduced from around 90% to around 47-67% at 5-6 months, while protection against severed disease was slightly reduced but remained in the 90% range.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02183-8/fulltext#

• The vaccine does NOT protect you from catching the virus and testing positive, it protects you (in most cases) from getting critically ill.

False. It does indeed protect you from catching the virus, 5-8x reduction in various analysis.

So, the last point confirms IMO that the various apps, health passports now requested in many countries to enter various premises is complete B.S. as a vaccinated person can easily be positive and pass it on to any other person.

Your assessment of "complete B.S." is an opinion, but it is one founded in a false assertion, above. Vaccinated people are far less likely to become infected, and when they are infected they have a high viral load for fewer days. Not only are vaccinated travelers far less risk to become sources of spread, but they are far, far less risk to become a burden upon the health care system of the country they are visiting. If I were responsible for making a country's immigration policy I would absolutely require Covid vaccination for those reasons. Although I would allow a past PCR positive Covid diagnosis to be recognized as a vaccination, which only some countries are doing.