Vaccine effectiveness and Herd Immunity

[Balifrog]

Then it's even more difficult for me to understand why Indonesia only has 6% vaccination rate, even for both doses. Assuming anywhere outside of Java is "rural and remote" (not true), and half of Java population are also "rural and remote" (not true), then we have 28.5% of Indonesia's population living in cities and accessible areas. I think Indonesia is doing a better job than administering vaccines only to 20% of the population NOT living in "rural and remote" areas (to get to 6% vaccination rate). But then again these are just top of my head estimates, maybe it is true that Indonesia has only reached 6% vaccination rate, but I'd say that it's not due to people living in remote areas (even if we assume all of them are afraid to be vaccinated), lack of vaccine or poor coordination.

Shrug... I sure hope it's not true that Indonesia has only reached 6% vaccination rate.

Still in bed, and on my mobile, so I am not going to do maths, but this website has some nice info on Indonesia's demographics and should allow you to fine tune your calculations.

Redirecting to: /countries/indonesia

Specially this part, on Java's main cities population

 

[HappyMan]

The village I frequent, which is on the main road between Bandung and Subang, has yet to see any vaccines, my unofficial sources say. There are plenty of people in the area who do live off of the main roads, accessible only via motorbike, but motorbikes do exist. Also, Indonesia has the RT/RW system, which should mean that they have a pretty good ability to reach their semi-rural citizens. If someone is living in an area that is truly inaccessible (you need travel there like you are in an Indiana Jones movie), then they probably aren't in a great need of the vaccine, are they?

 

[gemima]

Is there an explanation in why in Indonesia the population is only 6% vaccinated?

1. Is it of lack of vaccin doses?
Actually, I don't believe that, because according to the news there are more than105 million doses of Sinovac in the country and also 50 million doses of AstraZeneca.

2. Is it of poor coordination?
In Jakarta, I must say, the vaccins programs are well coordinated. Also, I ask around in Jakarta: taxi drivers, gojeks, employees ... everyone I talk to, says "saya sudah divaksin". So, the low 6% is due to low vaccinated population in the rural area's of Indonesia. Is that true? Is there anyone in the forum who can confirm this from their own experience? Are there vaccin centra out there in the desa's? Do people in the desa's have access to vaccins?

3. Is it because the majority of people in the rural are 'afraid' of vaccins?
Are people in the kampongs afraid of the vaccins? Takut? And therefore they do not want to be vaccinated? Is there anyone in the forum who can confirm this from their own experience?

Knowing this, means that we can address the problem more accurate. Right?

There is certainly a fair amount of vaxx hesitancy but I think the main issue here is the supply. For example:

Limited doses, high turnout throw North Sumatran vaccine event into disarray - National - The Jakarta Post

A vaccine drive held in Medan, North Sumatra, on Tuesday ended in chaos as people jostled to enter the venue after waiting for hours.

www.thejakartapost.com

In recent weeks I've seen many similar news stories.
Outside of Bali and Jakarta the supplies just arent enough at the moment.

 

[Ruserious]

Where did I said that ? On the contrary, I said multiple times the opposite !

Balifrog perhaps i have misunderstood. Good for you for supporting the vaccines but when i check through your post history it really reads as if you did not believe them and have changed your tune over time. It maybe that i am misunderstanding again but a lot of your earlier posts like this one certainly read like anti vax messages.

And it would be easy to say that in the last 10 years, said flu attacked the unvaccinated more than the vaccinated. But again, never a headline or a "scientific" study on it.....
Disclaimer : I never took the flu vaccine, and I am (miraculously) still alive !

So again sorry for misunderstanding but if you read a lot of your earlier messages they definitely came across as anti vax, even if you didnt out right say so.

 

[Ruserious]

Should have added this comment too.

And I survived a "very exotic" life in SEA since 30 y without vaccine (or condom), so I am not gonna change now.
But I have no problem with people doing it another way, just DON'T impose your views to me. To each his own.

You can see how this makes you come across as not believing in vaccines?

 

[dafluff]

Shrug... I sure hope it's not true that Indonesia has only reached 6% vaccination rate.

We don't have to guess what the vaccination number is, because Kemkes publishes the data here:

https://vaksin.kemkes.go.id/#/vaccines

As of today, ~22m people have received 2 doses, which is about 8% of the 270m total population in Indonesia.

As to why it is so low, it is mostly a distribution problem, although there were periods where vaccine supplies ran low, mainly due to bottling rates at Biofarma. The main issue is that 270m people is a lot, and even achieving 1m shots/day consistently is a huge task. Even at that rate, it would take over 1.3 years to administer 500m shots, and so far Indonesia has nowhere near the 1m/day mark consistently. Remember, this assumes non-stop work, every day, including weekends and holidays.

 

[Samoerai]

There is certainly a fair amount of vaxx hesitancy but I think the main issue here is the supply. For example:

Limited doses, high turnout throw North Sumatran vaccine event into disarray - National - The Jakarta Post

A vaccine drive held in Medan, North Sumatra, on Tuesday ended in chaos as people jostled to enter the venue after waiting for hours.

www.thejakartapost.com

In recent weeks I've seen many similar news stories.
Outside of Bali and Jakarta the supplies just arent enough at the moment.

Thanks for the link. Good to know. As far as I know the Indonesian Government has been delivered 125 million doses of Sinovac and 50 million of Astrazeneca. Up until now. Still not enough for herd immunity. The government is still busy securing more doses, e.g. 130 million Novavax (from USA) and 100 million doses Pfizer. But, unclear if the government has succeeded in making the deals. The distribution of the doses, that have been delivered, is being prioritized by riks zoning, as far as I know. But the details of this risk zoning, is unclear to me.

 

[gemima]

Should have added this comment too.



You can see how this makes you come across as not believing in vaccines?

In my discussions with Balifrog I feel he just opposes them being forced onto him from a personal freedoms point of view and he's been quite balanced in the discussions about the risks/ benefits of vaccines. Seems like most of his family members have had them (and his wife) so as non-vaxxed people go I wouldn't call him anti-vax.

 

[Samoerai]

We don't have to guess what the vaccination number is, because Kemkes publishes the data here:

https://vaksin.kemkes.go.id/#/vaccines

As of today, ~22m people have received 2 doses, which is about 8% of the 270m total population in Indonesia.

As to why it is so low, it is mostly a distribution problem, although there were periods where vaccine supplies ran low, mainly due to bottling rates at Biofarma. The main issue is that 270m people is a lot, and even achieving 1m shots/day consistently is a huge task. Even at that rate, it would take over 1.3 years to administer 500m shots, and so far Indonesia has nowhere near the 1m/day mark consistently. Remember, this assumes non-stop work, every day, including weekends and holidays.

Thanks for the link and your analysis of (the government goal) of 1 million shots per day. Indeed, 2 x 1 shot, means 2 x 270 million shots (taking into account that children also need the vaccin). Therefore 540 days or 1,47 years. Indeed, it still takes a long time and under the condition that the doses are plenty available. Yes, very good analysis, thanks! You mention also, problems of bottling rates at PT. Biofarma. Is that still an issue? Do they just bottle? Is there also an issue of problems with stocks of hypodermic needles? Or trained nurses?

 

[Helpful Herbert]

In total 71m vaccine shots have been given as of today. Around 440m are needed (80% of the population * 2 doses each).[note: they are not aiming for 100% coverage, so they don't need to give 540m]. They currently do almost 1m/day. So it should take around 13 more months (Sept 2022) to get to 80% herd immunity (quicker if they can do more than 1m/day).

 

[Balifrog]

Balifrog perhaps i have misunderstood. Good for you for supporting the vaccines but when i check through your post history it really reads as if you did not believe them and have changed your tune over time. It maybe that i am misunderstanding again but a lot of your earlier posts like this one certainly read like anti vax messages.



So again sorry for misunderstanding but if you read a lot of your earlier messages they definitely came across as anti vax, even if you didnt out right say so.

With all due respect, for me there is a BIG difference between being "no vaxer" and "anti vaxer".
A no vaxer is simply not interested in taking it, for whatever reason. Maybe he doesn't believe in it, he doest care, religious issue etc.... But he is not trying to convince others of his ideas/opinions, he is more like "up to each own"
An anti-vaxer will not take it for whatever reasons (same as above) but he will try to persuade others that they should not take it. BIG difference.

A bit like in religion an atheist vs a religious zealot.
The atheist wiln simplh say "I dont believe in this", a zealot will say "i believe in one, it is the only one, and anybody who doesn't think like me is wrong".

Note : There are millions of Covid regulation / pro vaccin zealots around since some time....
Not speaking about here, but more globally.

 

[Balifrog]

Should have added this comment too.



You can see how this makes you come across as not believing in vaccines?

Again mate, this doesn't make me an ANTI vaxer.

 

[Balifrog]

In my discussions with Balifrog I feel he just opposes them being forced onto him from a personal freedoms point of view and he's been quite balanced in the discussions about the risks/ benefits of vaccines. Seems like most of his family members have had them (and his wife) so as non-vaxxed people go I wouldn't call him anti-vax.

Spot on !

 

[Samoerai]

In total 71m vaccine shots have been given as of today. Around 440m are needed (80% of the population * 2 doses each).[note: they are not aiming for 100% coverage, so they don't need to give 540m]. They currently do almost 1m/day. So it should take around 13 more months (Sept 2022) to get to 80% herd immunity (quicker if they can do more than 1m/day).

Yes, the target of the Indonesian government is 208 million people vaccinated. Yet, with a low efficacy of Sinovac (50%) it takes more than 80% coverage of the population. I guess the government will change that percentage in the future. Furthermore there is the issue of 3th, so called booster, shot.

 

[Balifrog]

Hopefully one of those many studies / trials works, and will allow to treat the Covid virus like any other bad flu ?
But it will take time to go through all the trials / approvals processes.
IF it works, and IF it is not shot down by big pharma..... They don't like cheap existing drugs repositioning as there is little money to be made.

France's Institut Pasteur. I recently saw a documentary on this story but in French / German only.

French institute aims to start human trials of ‘promising’ Covid-19 drug this winter

The Pasteur Institute in the northern French city of Lille has confirmed the discovery of a “very promising” drug in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, without naming it. FRANCE 24 spoke to…

www.google.com

And a recent one in the US :

Common Medication Used to Reduce Cholesterol Levels May Reduce COVID-19 Severity

Using anonymized medical records from a national registry, UC San Diego researchers confirm earlier findings that statins may substantially minimize adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

health.ucsd.edu

Statins Reduce Risk of COVID-19 Death

Experts say statins may help with COVID-19 because they lower blood pressure, reduce inflammation, and keep in check other underlying conditions

www.healthline.com

Cholesterol drugs reduce coronavirus by 70% - report​

[06/08/2021] 22:40:00
A drug, originally meant for treating cholesterol, with fenofibrate and fenofibric acid was found to reduce the coronavirus infection in human cells by nearly 70%, a team of British and Italian researchers revealed on Friday in a publication for the Frontiers in Pharmacology journal.
"Our data indicates that fenofibrate may have the potential to reduce the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and also virus spread. Given that fenofibrate is an oral drug which is very cheap and available worldwide, together with its extensive history of clinical use and its good safety profile, our data has global implications," said Dr. Elisa Vicenzi, co-author of the report.
The researchers called for additional clinical trials among hospitalized COVID-19 patients to explore the potential of the drug as a treatment against the virus and emerging variants.

 

[Nimbus]

Hopefully one of those many studies / trials works, and will allow to treat the Covid virus like any other bad flu ?
But it will take time to go through all the trials / approvals processes.
IF it works, and IF it is not shot down by big pharma..... They don't like cheap existing drugs repositioning as there is little money to be made.

France's Institut Pasteur. I recently saw a documentary on this story but in French / German only.

French institute aims to start human trials of ‘promising’ Covid-19 drug this winter

The Pasteur Institute in the northern French city of Lille has confirmed the discovery of a “very promising” drug in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, without naming it. FRANCE 24 spoke to…

www.google.com

And a recent one in the US :

Common Medication Used to Reduce Cholesterol Levels May Reduce COVID-19 Severity

Using anonymized medical records from a national registry, UC San Diego researchers confirm earlier findings that statins may substantially minimize adverse outcomes from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

health.ucsd.edu

Statins Reduce Risk of COVID-19 Death

Experts say statins may help with COVID-19 because they lower blood pressure, reduce inflammation, and keep in check other underlying conditions

www.healthline.com

Cholesterol drugs reduce coronavirus by 70% - report​

[06/08/2021] 22:40:00
A drug, originally meant for treating cholesterol, with fenofibrate and fenofibric acid was found to reduce the coronavirus infection in human cells by nearly 70%, a team of British and Italian researchers revealed on Friday in a publication for the Frontiers in Pharmacology journal.
"Our data indicates that fenofibrate may have the potential to reduce the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and also virus spread. Given that fenofibrate is an oral drug which is very cheap and available worldwide, together with its extensive history of clinical use and its good safety profile, our data has global implications," said Dr. Elisa Vicenzi, co-author of the report.
The researchers called for additional clinical trials among hospitalized COVID-19 patients to explore the potential of the drug as a treatment against the virus and emerging variants.

Quoted directly from one of the articles:

“Daniels said it appears most of the benefit is among patients with good medical reasons to be taking statins, such as a history of cardiovascular disease or high blood pressure.”

Hypertension (high blood pressure) is one of the known comorbidities of Covid. If you have hypertension, you already have a higher chance of dying from Coronavirus. It seems that statins help reduce your blood pressure and the severity of the viral disease.

In any case, it’s not a substitute for the vaccines. Before you suggest that vaccines are expensive, it’s better to show some numbers. Moderna and Pfizer vaccines cost less than $30 each. A month dose of generic statins costs more than that, while name brand versions can be as high as $350.

 

[Hawk256]

"Achieving herd immunity is "not a possibility" with the Delta variant, Sir Andrew Pollard said." Looks like the herd immunity hope is over.

The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus

Sir Andrew Pollard said the highly transmissible Delta variant has shattered hopes of reaching herd immunity.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Nimbus]

"Achieving herd immunity is "not a possibility" with the Delta variant, Sir Andrew Pollard said." Looks like the herd immunity hope is over.

The developer of the AstraZeneca shot says the Delta variant has made herd immunity impossible because vaccinated people can still transmit the virus

Sir Andrew Pollard said the highly transmissible Delta variant has shattered hopes of reaching herd immunity.

www.yahoo.com

So it’s gonna be like the flu. The virus mutates so often that a new vaccine needs to be developed every year.

It also means that anti vaxxers will constantly be attacked by new variants. If they’re not susceptible to the first variant, they can still fall to subsequent ones. Eventually most of them will. Darwin effect at an accelerated pace in mass scale.

 

[Hawk256]

So it’s gonna be like the flu. The virus mutates so often that a new vaccine needs to be developed every year.

It also means that anti vaxxers will constantly be attacked by new variants. If they’re not susceptible to the first variant, they can still fall to subsequent ones. Eventually most of them will. Darwin effect at an accelerated pace in mass scale.

I guess it's good news for the vaccine manufacturers. They get to sell a new product every year or 6 months for a massive profit. If you miss your yearly or 6 month "booster" (which seems more likely) do you become an anti vaxxer?

 

[Dharma Police]

I guess it's good news for the vaccine manufacturers. They get to sell a new product every year or 6 months for a massive profit. If you miss your yearly or 6 month "booster" (which seems more likely) do you become an anti vaxxer?

I know a guy who's in the medical supply business. He was racing Porsches in Sentul before all this, I bet he's getting into Ferraris now.