DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

R Cameron

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 19, 2016
Messages
804
Not sure whether this is true positive or false positive, Now, she has to self quarantined for 10 days.
Hopefully another test can be done ASAP.
PCR tests have a low false positive rate, however, there are 3 possibilities all quite possible: (1) She was just infected a few days ago and is pre-symptomatic, (2) She was infected about 10-14 days ago, remained asymptomatic, but may still be contagious for a few more days, or (3) She was infected a couple weeks ago, is no longer contagious, but is still shedding dead virus which is detected by the PCR test.

I hope it was one of the latter two, but unfortunately it may occur that she is shedding dead virus for an extended period of time and can not get a negative PCR test for several weeks, I believe in some cases even months.
 

Wisnu

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2016
Messages
458
All the best for her quick recovery - if it was a PCR test it's unlikely to be a false positive (but they can occur..human error can happen). I'm assuming she is young and as you say an athlete (and a woman) so all things in her favor to recover quick.
probably, we're little bit panic
Yes, it was RT PCR. Indeed, she's young, 21 years old - student athlete.
Can only expect her to recover soon then can travel here. More than a year we have not met her
Her elder sister in London (travel tomorrow) will get her PCR test in few hours. Hopefully negative so she can visit us. Wish her luck.
 

Wisnu

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2016
Messages
458
PCR tests have a low false positive rate, however, there are 3 possibilities all quite possible: (1) She was just infected a few days ago and is pre-symptomatic, (2) She was infected about 10-14 days ago, remained asymptomatic, but may still be contagious for a few more days, or (3) She was infected a couple weeks ago, is no longer contagious, but is still shedding dead virus which is detected by the PCR test.

I hope it was one of the latter two, but unfortunately it may occur that she is shedding dead virus for an extended period of time and can not get a negative PCR test for several weeks, I believe in some cases even months.
We don't know yet. She's sharing house with her other two friends. Both of them back to their hometown four days ago. Since then, no close contact with other people. She is recovering from knee surgery, no tournament and or practice session. I guess, she get infected when attending the Thanksgiving dinner at her friend family almost two weeks ago
If this the case, hopefully the dead virus is undetected on the next PCR test.
 

dafluff

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 13, 2016
Messages
3,942

We could be getting...the most efficient covid-19 vaccine. A big claim for interim result, but it would be great if it is true!

“Our clinical trial team found, within one month, that the interim data shows up to 97% for its efficacy,” said a spokesman for Bio Farma.

Based on this quote, it is very likely that someone is confusing immunogenicity with efficacy here.

Immunogenicity is the ability of a foreign substance (vaccine) to provoke an immune response. It can indeed be tested for within a month. Another clue is that the quoted 97% rate is exactly the same as Sinovac's immunogenicity results for their phase 1/2 trials.

Efficacy (how many get infected vs a control group) takes longer to determine. Usually until a meaningful number of people in the control group are infected naturally. This is why phase 3 trials take a long time to complete.

As far as I know there are no phase 3 efficacy results from Sinovac published yet.
 

dannyboy

Active Member
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
58
“Our clinical trial team found, within one month, that the interim data shows up to 97% for its efficacy,” said a spokesman for Bio Farma.

Based on this quote, it is very likely that someone is confusing immunogenicity with efficacy here.

Immunogenicity is the ability of a foreign substance (vaccine) to provoke an immune response. It can indeed be tested for within a month. Another clue is that the quoted 97% rate is exactly the same as Sinovac's immunogenicity results for their phase 1/2 trials.

Efficacy (how many get infected vs a control group) takes longer to determine. Usually until a meaningful number of people in the control group are infected naturally. This is why phase 3 trials take a long time to complete.

As far as I know there are no phase 3 efficacy results from Sinovac published yet.
Yep, you are right, they have recently clarified it...:D

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ate-is-seroconversion-rate-in-indonesia-trial
 

harryopal

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2016
Messages
1,021
Just watching a news clip in Jakarta of a woman entering a government education building which has temperature testing before entering. The result showed 34.2 C so theoretically she was suffering from hypothermia. That would seem to suggest someone who was actually 38.2 C and possibly effected by Covid would just walk into the building showing their temperature as around 36 C.
 

harryopal

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2016
Messages
1,021
Clearly the issue of mass Covid 19 vaccination programs is one that carries a lot of heat. To be an anti vaccinator is akin to being seen as a flat earther. That said I see that 51% of citizens in the US do not want to be vaccinated. As one who experienced a bad small pox vaccination I confess to not being keen on vaccination programs.

Here is a sober link to disquieting information about the charge forward to mass vaccinations. It also questions the spraying programs. I now wait for bricks to start flying my way.


 

Nimbus

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 17, 2016
Messages
1,483
Clearly the issue of mass Covid 19 vaccination programs is one that carries a lot of heat. To be an anti vaccinator is akin to being seen as a flat earther. That said I see that 51% of citizens in the US do not want to be vaccinated. As one who experienced a bad small pox vaccination I confess to not being keen on vaccination programs.

Here is a sober link to disquieting information about the charge forward to mass vaccinations. It also questions the spraying programs. I now wait for bricks to start flying my way.


These folks voted Trump in 4 years ago. That should tell you about the quality of their judgment.
 

harryopal

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2016
Messages
1,021
Well, I didn't argue that this is proof or justification for my own reservations about vaccines but it does suggest that after the vaccine revolution there will be a lot of anti vaccinators to be sent to the camps or thrown with Covid victims into the pits.
 

Nimbus

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 17, 2016
Messages
1,483
Well, I didn't argue that this is proof or justification for my own reservations about vaccines but it does suggest that after the vaccine revolution there will be a lot of anti vaccinators to be sent to the camps or thrown with Covid victims into the pits.
Vaccines are like taxes, they are inconvenient and occasionally harmful at the personal level, but they’re necessary for the survival of the community. I have no problem treating anti vaxxers like tax dodgers.
 

ChrisTex

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
671
My objection with the vaccines currently is it feels like it is just being thrown against the wall and seeing if it sticks.
 

HappyMan

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 17, 2016
Messages
454
I would take a vaccine tomorrow and enjoy going to the mall the next day. And, I hate the damned mall. As it is, I wanted to go shopping for a few odds and ends while I was in town today, but decided against it, on account of not wanting to take my boy out in a red zone. This has lead to me spending an extra night in town, so I can buy friggin cream-cheese for a birthday cake. Covid is the most inconvenient thing I can think of, and as an American, I'm trained to despise needless inconvenience.
 

Nimbus

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 17, 2016
Messages
1,483
My objection with the vaccines currently is it feels like it is just being thrown against the wall and seeing if it sticks.
USA is now losing the same number of people as 9/11 every single day. Thousands of people are literally dying while they’re trying to perfect it. At some point perfection becomes the enemy of “good enough”.
 

Puspawarna

Moderator
Moderator
Cager
Joined
Jul 15, 2016
Messages
2,622
My objection with the vaccines currently is it feels like it is just being thrown against the wall and seeing if it sticks.
The science behind the development of the COVID vaccines is extremely rigorous and depends on an advanced understanding of the proteins that make up the exterior of the virus. Your characterization is absolutely incorrect.

It worries me that people (not you, necessarily) are willing to go with their feelings on matters like these. There are other choices: best of all, educate yourself. If that's not an option, think about whether the experts seem credible. Have you read the profiles of the BioNTech people? Do you think they are untrustworthy for some reason? Would you trust someone like Jenny McCarthy (not saying you do) over them?
 

harryopal

Well-Known Member
Charter Member
Joined
Aug 4, 2016
Messages
1,021
This is a comment regarding RNA vaccines from a study made by the University of Cambridge.

"There is still a lot of work to be done before mRNA vaccines can become standard treatments, in the meantime, we need a better understanding of their potential side effects, and more evidence of their long term efficacy."

In general the study indicates exciting and promising possibilities with this approach to developing new vaccines. However, at the moment with this rush to get things moving I don't think it is irrational to have reservations about being quick to line up.

Meanwhile Peru has just suspended use of a Chinese vaccine after serious adverse effects.


Here is a link to the University of Cambridge report.
 

gemima

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Jul 25, 2016
Messages
258
Meanwhile Peru has just suspended use of a Chinese vaccine after serious adverse effects.

Just a short comment on this - the neurological condition is likely Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) which is a known side effect of all vaccines and most importantly all viral infections. Indeed your risk of coming down with GBS is higher if you have an infection over getting a vaccine. It's an auto-immune disorder where your immune system attacks the myelin that insulates your nerve cells in the body (not the brain).
My dad had it quite severely 10 years ago after having the flu (he now wishes he'd taken the flu vaccine that year). It left him completely paralyzed in hospital for a month. To this day he hasn't recovered full sensation in his feet and can't walk normally (suffers from drop foot). It took a very healthy man in his 60s and changed his life overnight. I'm still bitter about the way it changed his life, thankfully he is better at dealing with these emotions than I am.
I'm only mentioning this because I hope people don't avoid the vaccine to avoid GBS. You're more likely to get it from a viral infection than a vaccine.
 

Follow Us

Latest Expat Indo Articles

Latest Activity

New posts Latest threads

Latest Tweets by Expat Indo

Online Now

Newest Members

Forum Statistics

Threads
4,723
Messages
72,163
Members
2,071
Latest member
poco - poco
Top Bottom