How do you guys invest?

[Pak Tani]

I was buying gold starting from 1 million Rp/gr. Did pretty well.

Over the last 15 years an average price increase of 9.4% annually in Dollars.

 

[pantaiema]

View attachment 5550
Over the last 15 years an average price increase of 9.4% annually in Dollars.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation-hedge.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/020915/has-gold-been-good-investment-over-long-term.asp

Investopedia is basically seen as the “Wikipedia of investing.” This is just one example of how professionals often view gold as a hedge against inflation: “Gold is a popular inflation hedge because its price often rises as the dollar’s value declines.” In general, there’s a pretty broad consensus among investors and economists that gold tends to do well during inflationary periods, geopolitical uncertainty.

I am still using my brain, so why I prefer to listen to the consensus of the professionals rather than opinion from random people on the internet. Gold prices have kept rising soon after the COVID-19, mainly because inflation stayed high. Even though inflation has started trending down recently, but it still hasn’t really settled around the usual target of about 2%. On top of that, recent tensions involving Iran causes a geopolitical uncertainty and pushed fuel prices higher, which has raised concerns that inflation could pick up again.

But wait until inflation gets closer to that 2% range, the war is over in the future and see how the gold price react in the long term. But of course, there are always exceptions, and nobody can predict the future with certainty.

From the the table in post #721. What happened in 2013. Gold crashed primarily because the FED signalled it would begin tapering its massive economic stimulus (Quantitative Easing).

Gold price tumbles to three-year low

Price of gold falls below $1,200 – from highs of $1,895 in 2011 – as Federal Reserve's QE comments dampen fears of inflation

www.theguardian.com

 

[serious_fun]

Almost any investment become a good investment if you get it at very attractive price

Thanks for the great investment advice.

 

[snpark]

Thanks for the great investment advice.

He thought of that himself too without using AI

 

[pantaiema]

He thought of that himself too without using AI

"Investopedia is basically seen as the “Wikipedia of investing I am still using my brain, so why I prefer to listen to the consensus of the professionals rather than opinion from random people on the internet. "
This is the link where most of the information come from
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation-hedge.asp
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/020915/has-gold-been-good-investment-over-long-term.asp

People, including hedge funds, are using AI, investopedia, statistics, and probability to help them make better decisions. But the way they use these tools might be different from the way other people use them. At least they would not make this kind of mistake or mislead people when calculating the PBP and/or ROI, like the example posted by someone in this forum a few years ago about investing in a villa in Bali.

Still remember who wrote this (below)? Clue: this person is in this thread, and before moving to Indonesia, he claimed to have worked in financial services for many years.

Those who are looking for the best form investment in Bali this might be the one.
"

"

 

[Balifrog]

hose who are looking for the best form investment in Bali this might be the one.

In the street I live, over the last years at least 5 or 6 new villas. Most of them still vacant.
I know a guy who used to do the "house building /flipping", can't get rid of the last one finished a year ago.
A French guy finished a house adjacent to the resort I live about 2 years ago, he managed to rent it 6 months. Now available for sale since over a year.
In a 500m radius 8 years ago there were 2 or3 resorts, nos 5 or 6. But the number of tourists has not doubled...so they all have a low occupancy rate.

 

[jstar]

Never believe all these success stories on IG and YouTube etc.

Same with all these “We bought a chateau in France for €300K” series. The renovation is millions, they get subsidized, get sponsored by suppliers like crazy and get paid by your YouTube views and likes.

In places like Sanur and Seminyak etc it’s extremely important to be on the ‘right’ side of the large Bypass roads, so in the close to the sea area.

 

[Balifrog]

On the same subject....

The End of Easy Money in Bali—And Why That’s Actually Good News

As Bali’s property market matures, easy profits are giving way to an era shaped by structure, sustainability, and long-term thinking.

indonesiaexpat.id

 

[pantaiema]

On the same subject....

The End of Easy Money in Bali—And Why That’s Actually Good News

As Bali’s property market matures, easy profits are giving way to an era shaped by structure, sustainability, and long-term thinking.

indonesiaexpat.id

But if you’ve been investing in property in Bali for 5years+ and reached break-even within two years (as mentioned in post #725), then this is different matter, since the past few years have been pure profit, right?

Also, the article was written by 'Seven Stones Indonesia', a company / agent that helps foreigners set up businesses and relocate to Indonesia. So when they talk about a five-year payback period, they may have an incentive to overstate the opportunity in order to attract clients to set up villa rental business and use their services.

 

[centurion]

But if you’ve been investing in property in Bali for 5years+ and reached break-even within two years (as mentioned in post #725), then this is different matter, since the past few years have been pure profit, right?

Also, the article was written by 'Seven Stones Indonesia', a company / agent that helps foreigners set up businesses and relocate to Indonesia. So when they talk about a five-year payback period, they may have an incentive to overstate the opportunity in order to attract clients to set up villa rental business and use their services.

correct

 

[snpark]

But if you’ve been investing in property in Bali for 5years+ and reached break-even within two years (as mentioned in post #725), then this is different matter, since the past few years have been pure profit, right?

Also, the article was written by 'Seven Stones Indonesia', a company / agent that helps foreigners set up businesses and relocate to Indonesia. So when they talk about a five-year payback period, they may have an incentive to overstate the opportunity in order to attract clients to set up villa rental business and use their services.

You're just so jealous aren't you. And love to misquote.

 

[pantaiema]

You're just so jealous aren't you. And love to misquote.

So still remember who wrote that ??
About the misquote ?? Well, that’s the image in the “direct quotation”, isn’t it?
And for someone who worked in financial services for many years, failing to include all costs when calculating an investment’s break-even point or payback period (PBP) is, in itself, a kind of irregularity and problem when calculating the return of an investment.

 

[snpark]

Sorry I didn't know you were privy to all the confidential details of my investment with my Indonesia partner.

What exactly is your problem apart from you don't like me.

What's so hard to imagine investing in something and getting all your money back in a year? And then all the monthly profit after that being reinvested going on to pay the costs of the second guesthouse construction.

I don't understand the jealousy and hatred or why you assume I'm lying even about my successful career in the Middle East and Asia for over 30 years

Anyway whatever. I'm very happy with my financial position thankyou

 

[snpark]

Just remember during and after COVID that rents were able to be quadrupled

A room that was 3jt during COVID is now 12jt a month. And sold out fully booked and paid for a year up front. The apartments now are 20jt + pm and both rented for a year paid up front.

If you are clever and good at interior design the basic cost of construction for a guest house is cheap. You don't need any furniture. You can make it all from concrete minimalistic style.

But I'm sure you know all that being a property expert in Bali. All I know is I invested with my Indonesian friend and got all my money back after a year. End of story. Nothing to prove or show off.

Thankyou for your interest in my personal affairs. Let me know if you want a signed head shot for your Mum

 

[snpark]

 

[snpark]

 

[Balifrog]

View attachment 5586

A picture of those rooms would allow to judge price vs prestation ?

 

[jstar]

Prestation is not only measured by rental prices but also by occupancy.

I can ask whatever I want for a house. But if nobody buys it…

 

[snpark]

Well the point is that the market has driven the prices up so much that my partner is now able to charge and get almost 4 times the rent as a few years ago, actually probably it was 18months time span, now still fully booked with a waitlist and on the 4th unit. So everyone happy. I guess bule happy to pay $600+ for a room (clean and nice, laundry, pool, wifi etc) in Canggu and write their blogs, actually probably have the tenants still Indonesians, perhaps the girls have a couple of gadun each getting $100-$200 a month from sayang, daddy, Jurgen, Pierre etc it adds up enough to cover their rent and their jobs ahem cough cough marketing in a club so their social is all paid too.

The apartment is the one that amazed me, 50sqm apartment for 22jt a month and my 3 bed in Kuningan 2.5 times bigger is 15jt only. That is how mahal Bali is now.

Anyway back on topic.

How do guys invest. Depends on your risk return aversion I guess. Some swear by bitcoin, yes the price went from $1000 to $20000 or whatever but I've yet to meet anyone who actually owns a whole one, when you ask these people how much BC they actually have, its a tiny fraction. So they sit in front of a screen "trading" all day to make a few hundred $ a year if the price goes up?

I guess a bit like the gold traders, buying and selling all day or robot trading. Sure double your money in a week and watch it wipe out when suddenly everyone profit-takes and it dips 500pts when you expect a bull and got a big fat bear.

People are always greedy, that is the problem. I know someone addicted to online gambling, I always told her just take 10-20jt every time, at very least you have your stake, don't start with 10jt and be angry at 80jt when you lost it all.

Sorry ranting again lol. Getting old like a cranky old man, turned into Victor Meldew or Larry Seinfeld. Or Karl Pilkington and the OK Wall of China

 

[pantaiema]

If you are a potential investor and someone claims the ROI is 100% or that the payback period is only two years, while solely showing you the price list of the room, would any sensible investor want to believe that or be willing to invest their money in that sector? Also currently the local government actively redefine the zoning for rental purposes.

Keep in mind that most people in the market are already quoting a five-year PBP, which itself may be already an optimistic assumption.
"People talked about returns in a way that felt almost casual. “It pays itself back in five years,” someone would say over coffee in Berawa."

This guy might be presenting a far more realistic investment assessment. I am fully aware you should not believe anyone posting article, but note that he has no incentive to either overstate or understate the investment figures, since he is not selling the product/service or flaunting his investment success. He claimed to have work in financial service and strong financial background. But people with some knowledge on investing and know Bali province could check his assessment.

Is Buying A Villa In Bali (Actually) A Good Investment? | Johnny Africa

Bali is a place that captures the imagination like few other destinations on earth. Its emerald rice terraces, pristine beaches, cliffside cafes, and boutique

johnnyafrica.com