Fair and peaceful campaigning?

[sumyunggai]

I am not sure if anyone checked the overseas results, but the Yemen results are interesting - Jokowi 28, Prabowo 605.

Anyone would think they were training for something over there....

 

[nd_eric_77]

My comment (Clinton won the popular vote, but look who is President; Jokowi won the popular vote, but look who is . . . . . . Oh never mind.) was made in jest, but thanks for the scholarly, as well as completely unnecessary, analogy. Perhaps you would care now to explain the Indonesian election process to Indonesians?

You do realize that this is a public thread and not your DMs, right? Did you happen to consider that while a commentary on the US presidential election system might be unnecessary for you personally, other people reading this public thread might not have your level of knowledge?

 

[waarmstrong]

Thanks for you civic minded effort; I think its just wonderful that there are members altruistically motivated to enlighten the clueless digital audience.

 

[nd_eric_77]

I do not presume an entire forum's familiarity with the Electoral College any more than I would expect an Australian to assume I have any familiarity with Australia's method of selecting a prime minister. Nor do I get pissy about people posting anodyne comparisons in political threads, but to each his/her own.

 

[waarmstrong]

. . . Nor do I get pissy . . . .

Until now, anyway.

 

[Dave70]

The difference is already 12,8%....

From the start, the Quick Count was lacking in excitement, the Real Count is also the same. Imagine this as a horse race, Jokowi’s horse is leading from the start. I'm thinking there can be some seesaw moment if, for example, results from West Sumatra come in, then Prabowo’s horse will be in the lead. Then results from Bali, Jokowi’s horse is in the lead again. But this did not happen. Perhaps it depends which province’s result is being tabulated first.

 

[jstar]

I am not sure if anyone checked the overseas results, but the Yemen results are interesting - Jokowi 28, Prabowo 605.

I liked Jokowi's answer that he still would eat Padang food when they confronted him with the 16% in West Sumatra.

That low percentage was the origin of another controversy btw; the Prabowo camp referred to a law that the winner should have at least 17% in all provinces. But oops, that only seems to apply when there are three candidates. [edit: mixup see next two posts]

 

[Dave70]

btw; the Prabowo camp referred to a law that the winner should have at least 17% in all provinces. But oops, that only seems to apply when there are three candidates.

I understand the law says 17 provinces or more than half of Indonesia's 33 provinces.

 

[nd_eric_77]

I understand the law says 17 provinces or more than half of Indonesia's 33 provinces.

There seems to be some confusion on this part of the 2017 law; according to this document https://web.archive.org/web/2018082...2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf , it appears that the winner must win a majority of the total votes and at least 20% of votes in 17 or more provinces. If the Quick Count results are anything close to accurate, Jokowi passed both requirements by a comfortable margin. The only province in which he received under 20% of the QC votes was Sumatera Barat; Prabowo appears to be under 20% in Bali and Sulawesi Utara.

 

[jstar]

I understand the law says 17 provinces or more than half of Indonesia's 33 provinces.

it appears that the winner must win a majority of the total votes and at least 20% of votes in 17 or more provinces.

Professor Yusril Mahendra stated that according to Mahkamah Konstitusi (MK) 50/PUU-XII/2014, these conditions don't have to be met since there are only two candidates...only the winner of the vote count applies.

 

[sumyunggai]

There seems to be some confusion on this part of the 2017 law; according to this document https://web.archive.org/web/2018082...2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf , it appears that the winner must win a majority of the total votes and at least 20% of votes in 17 or more provinces. If the Quick Count results are anything close to accurate, Jokowi passed both requirements by a comfortable margin. The only province in which he received under 20% of the QC votes was Sumatera Barat; Prabowo appears to be under 20% in Bali and Sulawesi Utara.

Jokowi did not reach 20% in Aceh, either.

 

[jstar]

As expected, the voice that the elections were not fair and that the results have been manipulated, becomes louder and louder. And as so often, the street thugs are conveniently used to convey the message.

We could be very lucky the final counting and publishing of the results takes place during Ramadan.

 

[jstar]

Now this can be completely unrelated, but it does remind me a bit of the '98 when there was a similar modus operandi:

For the 1 May festivities, there were multiple gatherings. Now in Bandung the workers, as in many other places, wore black. After it became violent, they arrested 625 people and it became obvious those 'workers' were in fact kids! Now an investigation has started to find the instigators and determine their motives.

 

[nd_eric_77]

Now this can be completely unrelated, but it does remind me a bit of the '98 when there was a similar modus operandi:

For the 1 May festivities, there were multiple gatherings. Now in Bandung the workers, as in many other places, wore black. After it became violent, they arrested 625 people and it became obvious those 'workers' were in fact kids! Now an investigation has started to find the instigators and determine their motives.

Watch the currency markets. Big money forex traders have a financial incentive to anticipate political unrest, and the currency markets often react before it happens. In the 4 weeks leading up to the riots of May 1998, the IDR went from 2000 / usd to 8000 / usd (eventually reaching a low of 16000 / usd). Similar currency collapses happened in the Arab Spring countries. Another predictor of political unrest is food shortages; as long as Indonesia's economy is doing well and people are (relatively) well-fed, it is unlikely that we will have unrest at a coup / revolutionary level.

 

[nd_eric_77]

When the Quickcount clearly showed that 01 was the winner, 02 said to "wait for the real count"... Then Prabowo declared himself the winner based on some mythical polling showing him to have won 62% of the vote... Now that the Real Count is trending towards the same outcome of the Quickcount, guess what everyone's favorite exiled "cleric", Rizieq Habib is saying... "Yusuf Martak: Habib Rizieq Sarankan BPN Desak KPU Hentikan Real Count" (Yusuf Martak: Habib Rizieq Suggests BPN Urge KPU to Stop Real Count). Source.
By the way, here is a live link to the Real Count in progress:
https://pemilu2019.kpu.go.id/#/ppwp/hitung-suara

As Thursday, 2 May at noon, Jokowi has a lead of over 11 million votes with 61.4% of the votes counted. I am pretty excited overall, as it may become mathematically impossible for Prabowo to win by the time the count reaches 89% (or sooner).

 

[waarmstrong]

Notwithstanding all the self-serving speculation and outright fabrications, the outcome was clear to most from the quick count forward. Forex and securities market speculators betting on a difficult , disruptive transition from Jokowi 1 to Jokowi 2, may end up loosing money. At least I hope so.

 

[jstar]

We are heading towards the 13% difference.

And it seems Ahmad Dhani is not elected; his 35.000 votes were not enough.

 

[Nimbus]

And it seems Ahmad Dhani is not elected; his 35.000 votes were not enough.

Good. I can't stand the guy.

 

[Dave70]

Soon Indonesia will have a new vice-president, whoever the next president will be. Could be the conservative Muslim cleric, or the successful businessman. Dahlan Iskan happen to know both of them well. Below excerpt from his article “Tafsir Wapres untuk Nasib Sendiri” https://www.disway.id/r/175/tafsir-wapres-untuk-nasib-sendiri. Maybe a little late but good read nonetheless (if you understand Indonesian).

Di NU Kyai Ma'ruf dikenal sebagai ulama garis lurus. Prinsipnya: 'tidak' atau 'ya'. Tidak ada prinsip 'atau'.

Itu berbeda dengan ulama NU lainnya. Seperti Kyai Aqil Siradj. Yang berprinsip: di antara 'ya' atau 'tidak' ada kemungkinan 'atau'.

Saya pernah menerbitkan koran di Mekah. Ketika masih muda dulu. Saya minta dibantu dua mahasiswa S3. Yang asal Indonesia. Sebagai redaktur tamu. Yang lebih paham situasi Arab Saudi.

Yang satu: mahasiswa S3 asal Lombok. Namanya: Suwardi Al Ampenani.

Yang satu lagi: mahasiswa S3 asal Cirebon. Namanya: Said Aqil Siradj.

Setelah bermingu-minggu bergaul kami pun tahu. Keduanya ternyata berbeda sikap. Dalam hal keagamaan.

Kami tidak akan bertanya pada Suardi tentang boleh atau tidak menghidupkan tv di kantor kami. Kami sudah tahu jawabnya: tidak boleh. Haram.

Maka kami menanyakan itu kepada Said Aqil Siradj. Kami sudah tahu jawabnya. Boleh.
Seperti itu pula bedanya antara Said Aqil Siradj dengan Ma'ruf Amin.

Maka ada guyonan di kalangan NU. Kalau mau bertanya yang tidak boleh tidak boleh bertanyalah ke Kyai Ma'ruf Amin. Kalau mau bertanya yang boleh-boleh bertanyalah ke Kyai Said Aqil Siradj.

Itu pula sebabnya Kyai Ma'ruf Amin di kubu 212. Sedang Kyai Said Aqil Siradj di luarnya.

 

[jstar]

Looking at the probable winner, I wonder how long the VP will still endure (in that position).