Fair and peaceful campaigning?

[jstar]

I can see people voting for Prabowo simply as the opposition candidate. Let us be honest. Prabowo is an ultra nationalist candidate and Jokowi has made strides in opening up the country to foreigners like us. Prabowo is not going to get a lot of love around here, but I can see some of Jokowi's detractors points too. Even though Indonesia has grown economically under Jokowi, there are many voters that have seen better growth from other presidents. The growth has not been even across Indonesia.

I dislike that Prabowo is actively trying to undermine faith in government institutions, but I have to face the fact that he doesn't have to work that hard to do that in Indonesia.



Does anyone assume the vote is totally accurate? With the massive amount of local control and corruption and a weak central government, I assume there was some cheating by localized politicians across Indonesia. I don't think the campaigns could have stopped it even if they were not coordinating it.

I copied your post here to make a clean cut between the demonstration and the whole election process.

Of course the whole campaigning has been one big detraction. If you see the leadership of the Prabowo camp and their backgrounds and history, it was always very clear the representation of the ultra conservative Muslims by those two, is in fact a hoax. Why nobody wants to see that? Probably since it's the only chance of pushing their own agendas?

It is also rather obvious Prabowo sees himself as a new Suharto and in fact I don't even think he dislikes foreigners. Perhaps he would be much more open towards foreign investments than Jokowi could ever be. But one needs a discours, right? You need to tell what your potential voters want to hear.

Personally I don't think Jokowi has done such a great job. Corruption has been tackled with the huge amount of regents and governors arrested. But it's definitely not rooted out in any way. On infrastructure he's done so so. Now the next five years he could develop more of a je m'en fous mentality and really go for it.

And to end somewhat controversial; perhaps this country is not ready yet for full blown democracy? Perhaps like in Russia a despot is (still) needed? And wanted. (A desire for the good old days.)

 

[jstar]

The name of the lawyers to start the case at the constitutional court is known. There is one somewhat controversial name in there: Bambang Widjojanto.

First of all since he has an active position in the staff of DKI governor Anies. (Who told us he sees no problem whatsoever since it is every individual's right to participate in legal teams.) There he is responsible for the oversight of anti corruption.

That makes sense, since he had a rather active role in the KPK, and was even on SBY's shortlist at the time for a top function there. So you could argue he was seen as a Jokowi supporter.

His professsional history includes work for Papua, which is kind of astonishing if you consider his 'boss' who gave him the assignment. But (rather conveniently) in his curriculum vitae in the Indonesian language, that is omitted.

And the fact that he won a case once at that same MK where they are going today, concerning a 10% election fraud, will definitely have put him on the list.

.

 

[nd_eric_77]

The name of the lawyers to start the case at the constitutional court is known. There is one somewhat controversial name in there: Bambang Widjojanto.

First of all since he has an active position in the staff of DKI governor Anies. (Who told us he sees no problem whatsoever since it is every individual's right to participate in legal teams.) There he is responsible for the oversight of anti corruption.

That makes sense, since he had a rather active role in the KPK, and was even on SBY's shortlist at the time for a top function there. So you could argue he was seen as a Jokowi supporter.

His professsional history includes work for Papua, which is kind of astonishing if you consider his 'boss' who gave him the assignment. But (rather conveniently) in his curriculum vitae in the Indonesian language, that is omitted.

And the fact that he won a case once at that same MK where they are going today, concerning a 10% election fraud, will definitely have put him on the list.

.

I am admittedly cynical AF, but it makes me wonder what kind of dirt Prabowo has on him.

 

[jstar]

@jukung11 :
Does anyone assume the vote is totally accurate? With the massive amount of local control and corruption and a weak central government, I assume there was some cheating by localized politicians across Indonesia. I don't think the campaigns could have stopped it even if they were not coordinating it

.


@dafluff responded:
I don't think any election result has ever been "totally accurate". Did Jokowi use his incumbent advantage to the maximum? Yes.

However, we can say with extremely high confidence that he won the election, and that the victory margin of 55%-45% is accurate. Why?

1. Pre-election polling by many different independent pollsters has shown numbers close to this.
2. Quick count results also converge to this number. This is mathematically solid, because the 8 or so quick counts use different polling stations for samples. If there were a localized cheating, then the numbers would not converge.
3. Independent kawalpemilu.org, which crowd-sources and even uploads recapitulation forms also arrives at this number.
4. The voting process is incredibly transparent, and votes are cast, then counted and finished the same day. Anyone can observe the process from start to finish if they want.
5. The BPN camp hasn't been able to show any evidence of wrongdoing, and filed a complaint with Bawaslu with laughable online article links as evidence.
6. Neither can BPN show any data supporting their claim of winning by 62% or 54% or whatever number they claim that keeps changing.
7. I find it highly unlikely that a gov't that can barely manage issuing eKTPs suddenly has the sophistication of rigging 18 million votes undetected.
.

 

[jstar]

Amien Rais will have to do some explaining on the 'Eggi' case today. (You got to love that name.)

There was a petition started to have opa Rais picked up for inflammatory language. 59.000 signatures so far.

On petitions: 460.000 so far on not approving the FPI license.

Tandatangani Petisi

Stop ijin FPI

www.change.org

 

[jstar]

@dafluff responded:
I don't think any election result has ever been "totally accurate". Did Jokowi use his incumbent advantage to the maximum? Yes.

However, we can say with extremely high confidence that he won the election, and that the victory margin of 55%-45% is accurate. Why?

1. Pre-election polling by many different independent pollsters has shown numbers close to this.
2. Quick count results also converge to this number. This is mathematically solid, because the 8 or so quick counts use different polling stations for samples. If there were a localized cheating, then the numbers would not converge.
3. Independent kawalpemilu.org, which crowd-sources and even uploads recapitulation forms also arrives at this number.
4. The voting process is incredibly transparent, and votes are cast, then counted and finished the same day. Anyone can observe the process from start to finish if they want.
5. The BPN camp hasn't been able to show any evidence of wrongdoing, and filed a complaint with Bawaslu with laughable online article links as evidence.
6. Neither can BPN show any data supporting their claim of winning by 62% or 54% or whatever number they claim that keeps changing.
7. I find it highly unlikely that a gov't that can barely manage issuing eKTPs suddenly has the sophistication of rigging 18 million votes undetected.
.

But now we know why all these people died in the counting process; they want to get rid of the evidence!
.

 

[dafluff]

Amien Rais will have to do some explaining on the 'Eggi' case today. (You got to love that name.)

There was a petition started to have opa Rais picked up for inflammatory language. 59.000 signatures so far.

On petitions: 460.000 so far on not approving the FPI license.

Tandatangani Petisi

Stop ijin FPI

www.change.org

Amin Rasis has definitely met the threshold of inciting violence with his call to bypass the courts and taking to the streets. It remains to be seen if he is well connected enough to be "untouchable".

I predict that when this is said and done, there will be a slow purge of Prabowo followers, as they are investigated for various misdeeds. Some of those who "play ball" will survive the purge, others will see charges of things like pornography, drug use and corruption. Similar to what has happened to alumni 212.

 

[dafluff]

But now we know why all these people died in the counting process; they want to get rid of the evidence!
.

Yeah....no.

I know you're joking, but some people have made this argument. It is patently ridiculous.

1. There were around 3 million election workers. We expect a certain percentage of them to die at any given day.
2. Election was not "any given day", it was a rather strenuous day with lack of sleep/rest/food for many as they were trying to finish their duties.
3. There were around 600 deaths reported. Lets say that represents 600 poling stations, each accounting for about 200 votes, that is still only 120,000 votes....a far cry from the 18 million Prabs lost by.

 

[jstar]

Not sure about the opening up of the country to foreigners part. I heard it is much more difficult to get work permits these days, most of the oil companies were driven out, same starting to happen to Freeport

Now don't forget that both candidates included this in their programs; to do more 'ourselves' and to outsource less. So then the profits of all steps to a finished product would stay in the country.

It also depends on the type of industry (cars, finance, ...):
In construction for instance (infrastructure and development) there definitely is a big increase in foreign involvement. See the developers for toll roads, railways and apartment and housing projects. There esp. the Japanese and Chinese involvement has been huge.

For the reclamation, the Dutch engineers and dredging were heavily involved. Before our governor practically kicked them out. (The countries' and DKI's administration definitely have different visions.)
.

 

[jstar]

At the MK

You can see Bambang and Prabowo’s brother

 

[jstar]

Prabowo himself was not present. He visited the house of the ustaz Arifin Ilham who passed away recently.

He was rather popular. You might remember him from the video clips in which he propagated polygamy, with his three angels. (It got a lot of press and even satirical versions.) He wasn’t that old yet, not even 50. (And no, speculate on why he passed away I will not do here.)

 

[jstar]

Some images and videos go viral, they show police violence against a civilian. The word on the street was that it is a person called Harun Rasyid.

But the Metro Jaya Regional Police General Criminal Investigation revealed that the person in the video turned out to be one of the rioters........... named Andri Bibir.

The Criminal Investigation Agency of the police said it was conducting an examination of BPN member Mustofa Nahraward. (BPN means the Prabowo-Sandiaga team.) This early morning he was picked up at his house in South Jakarta for the criminal act of spreading hate speech and/or false reporting via social media (in this case Twitter).

So Mustofa was named a suspect and was then arrested by the police for uploading a 31-second video. Which was related to the action that led to the death of a child named Harun. The video was declared a hoax by the police.

On his personal Twitter account, Mustofa wrote a text, grieving for a 15-year-old teenager named Harun who lived in West Jakarta. Mustofa claimed that Harun was tortured in the Al-Huda Mosque Complex at Tanah Abang.

Mustofa's wife is worried (the poor guy is somewhat obese diabetic and doesn't feel well, and that in the fasting period!) and contacted the Prabowo team for legal assistance.
.

 

[jstar]

Just an example of what is going around:

 

[jstar]

At the MK
You can see Bambang and Prabowo’s brother

So the demands are rather straightforward: Disqualify Jokowi and have Prabowo made President, or complete re-elections.

DPR members stated that Bambang better have some very strong witnesses that don't need to be bought. (That's a reference to his earlier MK case, later it became clear that many of the witnesses were paid off.)
.

 

[dafluff]

So the demands are rather straightforward: Disqualify Jokowi and have Prabowo made President, or complete re-elections.

DPR members stated that Bambang better have some very strong witnesses that don't need to be bought. (That's a reference to his earlier MK case, later it became clear that many of the witnesses were paid off.)
.

One of the "proofs" of massive and structured fraud that the Prabs camp has offered is an online news article regarding the inauguration of the Jakarta MRT. They said that Jokowi's inauguration of the project amounts to vote buying.

Other "proofs" include some Twitter and Instagram accounts. One of these accounts claims that every Polres (regency level police office) has 100 officers tasked to be "buzzers" (social media influencers).

This is like bad parody. They're lucky there is no law against wasting MK's time apparently.

Berita Peresmian MRT Jadi Bukti Prabowo ke MK, Bara Hasibuan: Nonsense!

Pemberitaan soal peresmian MRT oleh Jokowi jadi bukti yang diajukan tim hukum Prabowo ke MK. Waketum PAN Bara Hasibuan menyebut bukti itu tidak masuk akal.

news.detik.com

Selain Link Berita, Prabowo Sodorkan Akun Twitter dan Instagram Ini

Prabowo menggugat hasil Pilpres 2019 yang memenangkan capres dan cawapres Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin. Akun Twitter dan Instagram disinggung.

news.detik.com

 

[El_Goretto]

#GakTahuMalu

 

[jstar]

.
I remember Fadli Zon spitting out Bambang in 2015 in the case of false witnesses since he considered him as pro Jokowi. Now it's his best friend.

Talking about Fadli, he took it upon himself to speak for the parents of Harun, the boy who was killed. According to Fadli (important!) the father told him that police and government asked him not to file a complaint, not to request an autopsie and leave the whole case alone.
.

 

[waarmstrong]

I suppose anything is possible when you factor in the level of corruption throughout the Indonesian judiciary, but all the noise and splash coming from the Prabowo camp seems to me akin to the trapped air escaping from a sinking ship. It presents a short lived spectacle quickly dissipated and soon forgotten

 

[R Cameron]

all the noise and splash coming from the Prabowo camp seems to me akin to the trapped air escaping from a sinking ship. It presents a short lived spectacle quickly dissipated and soon forgotten

I've been assuming that's the case, I hope we're right.

I haven't heard much from Jokowi in all this, I assume he is not concerned, like a parent waiting for their child to finish their tantrum.

 

[dafluff]

A report, that reads a bit like a thriller, from Kompas:

Claims there are 3 separate groups intend on causing chaos on May 22. First group is paid premans, second are snipers, and third are radicals. They said CCTV footage shows them arriving from Tanah Abang commuter line station, coming from Banten, arriving at 10pm. They receive some envelopes then continue on to Petamburan and Bawaslu building.

At 2 am, an ambulance with more people distribute envelopes. People who receive the envelopes then move on towards Bawaslu.

Meanwhile another group is armed with assault rifles and silencers. National police commander, Tito Karniavan, shows off an M4 with a silencer that they confiscated from a retired Army general. They claim it was supposed to be used to create martyrs and fan public anger.

Operasi Rahasia di Balik Rusuh 22 Mei

Ada operasi rahasia pengerahan massa di balik peristiwa kerusuhan 22 Mei. Aiman mendapatkan bukti-bukti eksklusif.

nasional.kompas.com