DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

vocalneal

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A former work friend of mine died this week from pneumonia complicated by diabetes, or the other way around. Apparently it is the law/norm in Indonesia for a person to be cremated within 4 hours of death if they die of pneumonia related illness. So no funeral. He tested negative...
 

make_batik_great_again

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Comparing the average number of total deaths on a weekly / monthly base in past years with the 2020 numbers is indeed the most reliable way to have an idea of the additionnal mortality happening this year. Very likely caused by the Cvirus.
Probably the most reliable way. Although, of course, you need to consider other possible explanations for an increase or decrease of the number. Increase of the population in the last 12 months, small change in the demography. Also disasters like the flooding in the beginning of this year - might be that people feel more stressed because they lost their home or home is moldy now which both also could directly or indirectly lead to health problems and deaths.

Always difficult to compare absolute numbers if there are many reasons which could explain an increase/decrease...nevertheless, the virus probably explains the majority of the difference.
 

harryopal

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The human response to tragedy is so variable. Drama and gripping circumstances make some areas of tragedy much more compelling than others. China is having a day of mourning for the 3,300 who have died from Covid 19. On the other hand something like 5,300 Chinese are killed every month in traffic accidents.
 

dafluff

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Jakarta burials March 2019 vs 2020: 3,100 vs 4,400.
The number of infections and deaths in Jakarta has been significantly under-reported due to one of the world’s lowest rates of testing.

If we allow that half of the increase in deaths are due to Covid-19, that means 650 deaths. If we assume CFR to be 2% and time to death 10 days, that means ~32,000 cases in Jakarta 10 days ago.

1435
 

dafluff

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How about dengue fever season? This year is little bit stronger.
According to quoted article below, only around 250 dengue deaths until March 30, 2020 for all of Indonesia. Jakarta is not even in the top 3 highest cases.

 

centurion

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The article mentions official dengue deaths. Are there any unreported? Because the same article mentions 250 dead from dengue and 122 from coronavirus, just to compare apple to apples.
 

Bad_azz

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Jakarta burials March 2019 vs 2020: 3,100 vs 4,400.
The number of infections and deaths in Jakarta has been significantly under-reported due to one of the world’s lowest rates of testing.

If we allow that half of the increase in deaths are due to Covid-19, that means 650 deaths. If we assume CFR to be 2% and time to death 10 days, that means ~32,000 cases in Jakarta 10 days ago.

I think they would need to do that as a % of population and over a decade at least to show a credible number that could be considered as a study.
 

dafluff

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The article mentions official dengue deaths. Are there any unreported? Because the same article mentions 250 dead from dengue and 122 from coronavirus, just to compare apple to apples.
I think both numbers are probably under-reported. I'm willing to accept that perhaps as much as half of the increase in deaths are not due to Covid-19.

But high number of Covid-19 deaths is consistent with everything that we know about this virus, and the criminally insufficient response from the gov't so far.

Indonesia was a major destination for tourists from China (incl. Wuhan), South Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. It would be illogical to assume that Indonesia is somehow spared from the full wrath of the virus.
 

centurion

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Indonesia is blessed in disguise with a hot and humid climate with high UV all the time. There are not many deaths. Even 500 people in Jakarta is not much. Look at New York, the first case date was almost the same as Jakarta, and they have 3000 dead people and more than 100.000 officially confirmed cases. Malaysia has 57 deaths on 32 million population with a good health system.

Good insight would be some insider report from hospitals, but I have not heard rumours about dozens of thousands of pulmonary patients dying inside.
 

Helpful Herbert

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A large proportion of Indonesians avoid going to hospital. So I think funeral statistics are the best way to measure this, since they all take funerals very seriously.
 

centurion

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Also, large population goes to hospitals and that is why there are many private hospitals, and those with some money would overcrowd them. And there is a 3.000 beds government facility in Kemayoran, I believe coronavirus treatment is free.
 

tomtoba

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Also, large population goes to hospitals and that is why there are many private hospitals, and those with some money would overcrowd them. And there is a 3.000 beds government facility in Kemayoran, I believe coronavirus treatment is free.
Here in Sumatra, anybody with any money goes to Penang or KL, possibly singapore for serious health issues. They know the 'Rumah Sakit Umum' are no better than the magic men. But alas, theres no option now for leaving the country.
 

centurion

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Now the only option is an Indonesian hospital, one-way ticket. Everybody goes in and nobody out.
 

centurion

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Countries with BCG vaccinations programs have 10 times fewer infections (among them is Indonesia).


 
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harryopal

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The US Centers for Disease control estimated there were approximately 45 millions cases of the flu in the US during the 2017 - 2018 influenza season with 810,000 hospitalizations and 61,000 deaths.

They also estimated "between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year."

As far as I can make out testing for virus is unreliable and there are difficulties in determining which of the many strains is the critical agent. Getting a handle on the actual impact of the Covid - 19 strain is particularly difficult where there is a shortage of reliable recording of causes of deaths.

A kind of global hysteria is fanned by the nature of media which focuses on disaster and calamity. Authorities worldwide are eager to impress the public with actions that are being taken to protect them hence the rash of totally irrational and unproven measures such as mass spraying and bizarre authoritarian controls.

It is vaguely reminiscent of the Y2K 2000 computer bug. Many programs represented four-digit years with only the final two digits – making the year 2000 indistinguishable from 1900. And there were in fact many problems occurred around the world as the year turned over. Radiation overload and alarms went off in nuclear power plants in Japan, airline baggage collection systems in chaos, transport ticketing systems unable to cope and so on. But planes did not fall out of the sky and no major disasters although there were expectations of that happening..

The true nature of the damage to be caused by Covid -19 may take some years to assess. Obviously killer influenzas are dangerous but it is a bit like someone shouted out Fire and worldwide we all started charging for the exits. In the crush to escape we are to pay a huge price in economic damage and heaven knows the upheavals that may follow with lack of employment, money and food.

So maybe it is appropriate to panic a little bit.... but not too much.
 
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