DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[jstar]

Italy's decision of a total shutdown of all business including food stores seems rather unwise. If anything is going to create a sense of panic then closing foodstores is bound to do it. And if other countries move that way then it seems obvious we will get more panic buying NOW as people become scared that they may be caught without food in the house.

On the funny side of things after the panic buying of toilet paper clearing out supermarket shelves in Australia and then police saying no need to panic, it seems some people have gone back to supermarkets with their toilet rolls and asked if they can return them. Woolworths has decided, "No refunds."

It seems the US measure is to avoid the Italian situation. This is all very nice in theory:

but as we could see in Italy, there is not even enough bed and quarantine capacity for even a very low amount of patients. 11 beds in a big hospital is a bit of a joke of course (see also what China did).

.

 

[gemima]

Just speculating, but maybe Trump is expecting Boris Johnson to implement some sort of lockdown of travel between the UK and the EU? The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would be a challenge in that case (well, it is going to be a challenge to Brexit regardless of COVID19, but that is a topic for a different thread).

UK & Ireland are permitted to fly to the US (Trump forgot to include ROI in his speech). Seems his speech had a few errors in it!

 

[Dave70]

I find it difficult to trust the number of "negative" results coming from the patients tested here.

Agree, that's what I'm trying to say. But we have to be careful what we say or how we say it here. Sometimes I feel much safer to express myself in China... as long as it's not "interfering" in their internal affairs.

 

[Dave70]

Did somebody just made a killing on selling face mask last week? In Pasar Pramuka, an "Operasi Pasar Masker" was held and 1 million masks were sold. The price Rp.125.000 per box of 50pcs. Late last year, I bought a good brand "Sensi" Surgical Face Mask for about Rp.20.000 per box. If their margin is Rp.100.000 per box, that means, their profit for that one day alone is 2 billion rupiah. Operasi Pasar is supposed to be "non-profit", if they made a lot of money, that's obscene.

 

[dafluff]

Singapore has a population of about 6 million with 178 cases. Indonesia has a population of about 264 million with 34 cases. So Indonesia is 44 times bigger than Singapore, and if we multiply 178 x 44 = 7,832 cases in Indonesia. Is this large number possible at all?

Possible? If anything it's an underestimated...

 

[centurion]

Maybe there is something in the claim that the virus is not spreading at high temperatures so easily. Most of the reported cases in Indonesia are imported ones. Brazil, a country with a similar climate had the first case on 25th February and till 11 March had 69.

Singapore has a lot of transit travelers, so probably cases are also imported.

 

[jstar]

It seems 127 people from Iran/South Korea/Italy are refused entry in Indonesia as of 6 March. This is the total for all (air)ports.

Just got checked with one of these small temperature measurement devices that they aim at your forehead. It took four times to get a reading, and then it said 34° With some other people it only showed 'LOW'. Great system.

They told me you wouldn't be allowed at 38° or higher.

 

[jstar]

Maybe there is something in the claim that the virus is not spreading at high temperatures so easily. Most of the reported cases in Indonesia are imported ones. Brazil, a country with a similar climate had the first case on 25th February and till 11 March had 69.

Singapore has a lot of transit travelers, so probably cases are also imported.

I heard it was the same in Puerto Rico, a very comparable climate.

Singapore could also be explained since they almost live there constantly in a (colder) air conditioned environment.

 

[gemima]

I heard it was the same in Puerto Rico, a very comparable climate.

Singapore could also be explained since they almost live there constantly in a (colder) air conditioned environment.

I really hope this is the case - but I just don't think they are testing enough here to have any clarity on it.

 

[jstar]

I think there are many more cases here also. But if -as in Italy- there would be hundreds of elderly people dying of pneumonia, they couldn't keep that covered up, could they?

 

[Helpful Herbert]

If you look at Thailand, they were in third place about a month or two ago, but there have been hardly any new cases since. Even Singapore, they have extensive testing, lots of Chinese visitors earlier, and still not reached 200. I just don't think transmission is very easy in hot and humid climates. If it was, we would be seeing hundreds or thousands dying of respiratory diseases in Indonesia already (rather than only a few, mainly foreigners).

 

[dafluff]

Maybe there is something in the claim that the virus is not spreading at high temperatures so easily. Most of the reported cases in Indonesia are imported ones. Brazil, a country with a similar climate had the first case on 25th February and till 11 March had 69.

Singapore has a lot of transit travelers, so probably cases are also imported.

Maybe...who can say anything about Indonesia's numbers though...There are cases where person shows up with all symptoms at a hospital, and they couldn't diagnose COVID-19, only to be diagnosed in Singapore.

Then there is apparently still only one lab in Indonesia that can actually do the test. The lady who died in Bali yesterday did not get the COVID-19 diagnosis until after 7 days have passed, and test had to be done in Jakarta.

 

[gemima]

I think there are many more cases here also. But if -as in Italy- there would be hundreds of elderly people dying of pneumonia, they couldn't keep that covered up, could they?

Yes indeed - but it generally takes 14 days until people reach the point where they end up dying so it is possible that we are just behind the Italy curve (10 days ago things there were still "relatively" normal). However I really really hope that there is something in the warm climate limiting the spread!

 

[Helpful Herbert]

I know coronavirus is not flu, but still they are viruses going through the air ..


CDC research:
You may be safer from the flu in a humid room than in a dry one, according to a new study from researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
To simulate flu transmission in a health care setting, the researchers used "coughing" and "breathing" mannequins that were placed about 6 feet apart. Flu virus particles were released during a "cough," and devices throughout the room and near each "breathing" mannequin's mouth captured the particles. The particles were then collected and tested for their ability to infect human cells.
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.
High humidity was just as detrimental to small flu particles as large ones. That's important because small flu particles tend to hang in the air for a longer time, while large particles fall to the ground, Noti said.

 

[gemima]

I know coronavirus is not flu, but still they are viruses going through the air ..


CDC research:
You may be safer from the flu in a humid room than in a dry one, according to a new study from researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
To simulate flu transmission in a health care setting, the researchers used "coughing" and "breathing" mannequins that were placed about 6 feet apart. Flu virus particles were released during a "cough," and devices throughout the room and near each "breathing" mannequin's mouth captured the particles. The particles were then collected and tested for their ability to infect human cells.
At humidity levels of 23 percent, 70 to 77 percent of the flu virus particles were still able to cause an infection an hour after the coughing simulation. But when humidity levels were raised to 43 percent, just 14 percent of the virus particles had the ability to infect. Most of the flu particles became inactive 15 minutes after they were released into the humid air. "The virus just falls apart," at high humidity levels, said study researcher John Noti, of the CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.
High humidity was just as detrimental to small flu particles as large ones. That's important because small flu particles tend to hang in the air for a longer time, while large particles fall to the ground, Noti said.

I really hope this is the case but some of the research indicates it is not true for COVID-19:
http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~msan..._et_al_2020_Absolute_Humidity_R0_COVID-19.pdf
Its not an exhaustive body of research though so definitely not proving anything

 

[dafluff]

Meanwhile, six international schools in Jakarta have closed down (ACG School, Mentari School, Cikal, Beacon Academy, Taipe School and JIS), and I just heard in Bali that Bali International School and Canggu School are shutting down.

Most of the kids in those schools are "lucky" in that they can easily afford to social distance. The problem is with the millions of other school kids in Indonesia.

 

[fastpitch17]

I wonder trump's reaction if the EU announced no flights to or from the USA?

 

[centurion]

Maybe...who can say anything about Indonesia's numbers though...There are cases where person shows up with all symptoms at a hospital, and they couldn't diagnose COVID-19, only to be diagnosed in Singapore.

Then there is apparently still only one lab in Indonesia that can actually do the test. The lady who died in Bali yesterday did not get the COVID-19 diagnosis until after 7 days have passed, and test had to be done in Jakarta.

Indeed, but all these diagnosed are mostly mid-up or rich guys traveling around. Brazil now has 2-3 more times reported, probably because of a better health system or research.

Indonesians, as they are addicted to social media, would spread info about sick people with coronavirus by themselves anyway...

We will see in couple of days or a week are we on the right spot of the world now.

 

[dafluff]

Three more cases in Singapore imported by Indonesians seeking medical care. One is a family member of a previous case (man who checked into hospital in Indonesia March 3rd, but the hospital couldn't detect it). The other 2 are probably husband and wife.

For every rich Indonesian who can self diagnose, and then take off to Singapore to get proper diagnosis, you have to wonder just how big that iceberg is underneath.

 

[centurion]

Three more cases in Singapore imported by Indonesians seeking medical care. One is a family member of a previous case (man who checked into hospital in Indonesia March 3rd, but the hospital couldn't detect it). The other 2 are probably husband and wife.

For every rich Indonesian who can self diagnose, and then take off to Singapore to get proper diagnosis, you have to wonder just how big that iceberg is underneath.



View attachment 1302View attachment 1303

These are 4 persons only. Italy has more than 6000 cases and almost 1000 dead, and Italy is the 8th economy in the world. The epidemic started 2 weeks ago.