DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

South Korea has drive through testing for "the virus" now:
 
nd_eric_77 said:
260m /2 = 130m
0.5% of 130 m = 650k.
Your numbers appear accurate. Terrifying, but accurate.
Click to expand...

Still, 50% of the population infected is a very dramatic, and hopefully unrealistic, assumption.

Some days ago, I read that Indonesia's government plans to test more people than before the first two cases were announced. Since there have not been any further cases since then, I wonder if they really test more people. Somebody here found numbers of tested people during the last few days?
 
nd_eric_77 said:
260m /2 = 130m
0.5% of 130 m = 650k.
Your numbers appear accurate. Terrifying, but accurate.
Click to expand...

If the infection rate in Indonesia mimics that in S Korea, the death rate is going to be WAY higher than 0.5%. It will easily exceed the 4% in Wuhan.

Yesterday in a press release by the Bali health department, Bali as a whole has 3 hospitals with a combined total of 34 hospital bed for infectious diseases, only 4 of which are in negative pressure rooms. In a worst case scenario, they are prepared to convert two hospitals entirely for COVID-19 care, with a total of 300 beds. Bali is probably in the upper quartile of provinces in Indonesia in terms of medical care.

I hope the sunshine and vitamin D thing is actually true...
 
dafluff said:
If the infection rate in Indonesia mimics that in S Korea, the death rate is going to be WAY higher than 0.5%. It will easily exceed the 4% in Wuhan.

Yesterday in a press release by the Bali health department, Bali as a whole has 3 hospitals with a combined total of 34 hospital bed for infectious diseases, only 4 of which are in negative pressure rooms. In a worst case scenario, they are prepared to convert two hospitals entirely for COVID-19 care, with a total of 300 beds. Bali is probably in the upper quartile of provinces in Indonesia in terms of medical care.

I hope the sunshine and vitamin D thing is actually true...
Click to expand...
I still think the untested & asymptomatic numbers are skewing the results to make the illness appear significantly more deadly than it really is. Given the limited availability of test kits, there are likely a huge number of carriers who will never get included in the "official" mortality rate. It will be interesting to see how the passengers from the cruise ship turn out. Nearly all of them had at least some level of exposure to the virus, so their survival rate could provide a sort of natural experiment to see the severity of the virus.
 
nd_eric_77 said:
Nearly all of them had at least some level of exposure to the virus, so their survival rate could provide a sort of natural experiment to see the severity of the virus
Click to expand...

On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent. Unlike the data from China and elsewhere, where sorting out why a patient died is extremely difficult, we can assume that these are excess fatalities—they wouldn’t have occurred but for SARS-CoV-2. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died. If the numbers from reports out of China had held, the expected number of deaths in those under 70 should have been around four.

The data from the Diamond Princess suggest an eightfold lower mortality amongst patients older than 70 and threefold lower mortality in patients over 80 compared to what was reported in China initially. But even those numbers, 1.1 percent and 4.9 percent respectively, are concerning. But there’s another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that while cruise passengers can be assumed to be healthy enough to travel, they actually tend to reflect the general population, and many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises. So, the numbers from this ship may be reasonable estimates.

SLate
 
Euler Hermes, the largest credit insurer in the world, states that the economies most affected by the Corona virus, are Taiwan, South Korea and The Netherlands. These are followed by Hungary and Indonesia (China is not taken into account as the 'cause').

The sectors that are hit the hardest are chemicals, transport, automotive, textiles and electronics. Euler Hermes estimates that because of the Corona virus $320 billion is lost every quarter in trade of goods and services worldwide. This quarterly trade loss is comparable to the impact of an entire year of trade war between the US and China.
 
Dengue fever also has a low death rate (around 1-5%), better with early care. It is endemic in quite a few tropical countries, there is no vaccination and not much to do to cure it except rest, drink water etc. Admittedly it cannot be transferred to colder (rich) countries, but still I don't see it causing any economic disruption at all, certainly not a shutdown of the global economy, or even the economies of infected countries. Bad as the coronavirus is, it's looking like the effects of stopping economic activity may be worse. Interesting times.
 
⬆️ Bit of dry coughing and running nose, 37.6 and 37.7°

Luckily a bit more privacy now. In that Depok kompleks even GoJek didn't want to go anymore.
 
nd_eric_77 said:
I still think the untested & asymptomatic numbers are skewing the results to make the illness appear significantly more deadly than it really is. Given the limited availability of test kits, there are likely a huge number of carriers who will never get included in the "official" mortality rate. It will be interesting to see how the passengers from the cruise ship turn out. Nearly all of them had at least some level of exposure to the virus, so their survival rate could provide a sort of natural experiment to see the severity of the virus.
Click to expand...

There also appears to be 2 distinct strains of the virus, one being more virulent than the other (see attached video). Without knowing what percentage of people are affected by one or the other, it's not possible to pin point a death rate at this time.

 
Interesting article I found in Twitter.
Shared by Dr Dena Grayson who it says is an expert on ebola and pandemic threats, so i assume it isn't a hoax or fake news or anything.
www.news.com.au

Coronavirus ‘like a combination of SARS and AIDS’

Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.
www.news.com.au www.news.com.au
 
Just been reading a couple of articles about health issues in the US. Thank heavens Australia has Medicare which in the US would be seen as socialistic or communistic and taking away your freedoms..... the freedom to die without adequate and affordable medical care if you are poor.

The first article explains that in the USA, research for new drugs carried out by the big pharmaceutical companies is paid for by taxpayers but the drugs are owned then by the companies who can charge what they like to make serious profit.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/02...il&utm_term=0_e00a5122d3-4e4f8d3913-131792749

And this one is about costs for some Americans who were repatriated from
Wuhan back to the US but then had to pay for it. And the huge costs associated with testing for Corona.

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/28/american-evacuated-wuhan-us-billed-flight-mandatory-quarantine/

How on earth will this work out if the disease does take hold in the US?
 
harryopal said:
Just been reading a couple of articles about health issues in the US. Thank heavens Australia has Medicare which in the US would be seen as socialistic or communistic and taking away your freedoms..... the freedom to die without adequate and affordable medical care if you are poor.

The first article explains that in the USA, research for new drugs carried out by the big pharmaceutical companies is paid for by taxpayers but the drugs are owned then by the companies who can charge what they like to make serious profit.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/02...il&utm_term=0_e00a5122d3-4e4f8d3913-131792749

And this one is about costs for some Americans who were repatriated from
Wuhan back to the US but then had to pay for it. And the huge costs associated with testing for Corona.

https://theintercept.com/2020/02/28/american-evacuated-wuhan-us-billed-flight-mandatory-quarantine/

How on earth will this work out if the disease does take hold in the US?
Click to expand...
Well, to some people certain freedoms are worth dying for.

sarcasm
 
jstar said:
Euler Hermes, the largest credit insurer in the world, states that the economies most affected by the Corona virus, are Taiwan, South Korea and The Netherlands. These are followed by Hungary and Indonesia (China is not taken into account as the 'cause').
Click to expand...

Exchange rate already suffered because investors hesitate and people flee into the so called safe harbours (compared to euro 1:14,800 to above 1:16,000). Question is how far away are we from the lowest point!?
 
AC0BEA06-2C8D-4894-9CC7-DE29A016EFE8.jpeg
 
So, we thought we had a plastic waste problem. It seems people are being encouraged to throw away their masks after use. (Is it not feasible to wash them with antiseptic soap?) We are now to have millions of masks to be disposed of... where and how?
 
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