DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[Banana72]

I had to finally quit some whatsapp groups...i figure i would just depend on my logic of the usual logic like 'wash my hands....don't share utensils with others...don't touch my face or pick my nose after touching door handles, etc. Too much distraction from constant forwarded articles, pictures of people buying ramen noodles...argument about which one is hoax which picture isn't, etc. life hopefully would be a bit calmer without the whatsapp groups for now...

 

[dafluff]

Overheard at the warung:

As regular citizens it is normal for us to be concerned and vigilant. For people in government, I guess they assume everything will be fine, but then again they're already used to "washing their hands".



Note: The joke translates well, because both in Indonesian and English to wash one's hands (cuci tangan), means to absolve oneself of responsibility for something.

 

[Dave70]

Because Facemask do nothing.

In Singapore, the government is advising healthy people NOT to wear face mask, only the sick should be wearing it. And you go to the bank, pasted on the door "Please wear mask if you are sick". And inside the bank, all the tellers are wearing mask. So you wonder, are they all sick?

Actually, wearing the mask is to avoid the sick from transmitting the virus. But the problem is, some of the sick do not know they are infected until symptoms appear. In other words, they think they are healthy but they are already carrying the virus.

In Hong Kong, try walking the street without mask and people will literally shout at you.

 

[dafluff]

I don't watch Indonesian TV because it is the lowest form of media, but apparently this is how one of them reported on Coronavirus:

 

[make_batik_great_again]

I don't watch Indonesian TV because it is the lowest form of media, but apparently this is how one of them reported on Coronavirus:



View attachment 1287

Maybe just some sort of new fashion style and coincidence that she tried that now in times of corona

 

[nd_eric_77]

Lately, it seems that our trusty Jakarta Post is going "all COVID all the time". It does seem embarrassing that Singapore has reported three cases of people who appear to have contracted the virus while traveling in Indonesia.
My suspicion is that the vast majority of cases are underreported due to most infections being minor or even asymptomatic. If that is the case, then the death rate is significantly lower than it currently would appear to be.

 

[Helpful Herbert]

Also it mostly affects old people 70+ (in terms of who would need hospital admission), and in Indonesia half of the people don't make it to that age anyway.

 

[Bad_azz]

I don't watch Indonesian TV because it is the lowest form of media, but apparently this is how one of them reported on Coronavirus:



View attachment 1287

Yes that is true, I saw that, hubby was watching it & I happened to look up & see her, my first comment to him was wtaf??! I then proceeded to laugh every time her lil naive face popped up.

 

[Wisnu]

That's why not without reason many people call them TV o'on

 

[Nimbus]

Here’s an idea that will blow your mind: the face mask is less about preventing airborne virus, it’s about preventing your fingers from touching your face. It is very hard to not touch your face, because it’s so natural.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/05/coronavirus-officials-touch-faces/

 

[BPNBound]

Some kinda good news

Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing happen to have lower CFRs. In South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

 

[nd_eric_77]

Jakarta area schools are starting to prepare for extended closures. One in Kebon Jeruk is closing for two weeks and shifting to e-learning due to a student's relative having taken ill with suspected Covid. Multiple schools - four that I know of - are issuing travel restrictions (some including the threat of unpaid leave for any teachers who get quarantined due to travel to affected countries).
For what it's worth, I find the threat of unpaid leave to be counterproductive because it incentivizes people to come to work when they are sick and even lie about their travel histories. That said, given the flight cancellations, it would take a fair amount of effort to even get to any of the hard-hit countries.

 

[dafluff]

Some kinda good news

Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing happen to have lower CFRs. In South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

The death rate is impossible to assess right now. There are too many factors. It will increase once hospitals are overwhelmed, and patients who would have survived under normal conditions die due to lack of care. Also it could take over a month from hospitalization to death, so any numbers from Korea are very preliminary.

Some rather sobering extrapolations I read yesterday: If the death rate is 1% (for comparison, the death rate in Wuhan is around 4%, and in S.Korea its 0.5%), and the time it takes to die is about 4 weeks, then if you have 1 person die today, there were 100 people infected 4 weeks ago. The number of people infected doubles approximately every 6.5 days, so extrapolating from the above, then from that 1 person dying today, you can estimate that 1600 people have it today.

Of course the parameters do change, and once numbers are high enough, the doubling slows down (no one else to infect). Quarantine also slows down the doubling, of course. This is why efforts to identify and quarantine people is important. I'm starting to think that the Chinese heavy handed approach to isolate their citizens was probably warranted.

 

[dafluff]

Indonesia is going to restrict travel from COVID-19 affected regions in Iran, Italy and South Korea beginning Sunday, March 8th.

Travelers who have been in the following areas in the last 14 days are banned from entry:

• Iran: Tehran, Qom and the Province of Gilan
• Italy: Lombardi, Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Marche and Piedmont
• S. Korea: Daegu and Province of Gyeongsangbuk-do.

All visitors from the above countries (regardless of area), will need to present valid health certificate from their official health authority.

However, there is no way for Indonesian immigration to check whether people were actually in any those regions, so this requires voluntary reporting.

 

[dafluff]

Finally, on a more hopeful note, there may be an additional plausible explanation as to why Indonesia is not experiencing an outbreak. Basically, a daily low dose of Vitamin D (as you would get from the sun by just living in a tropical country), has been shown to reduce respiratory infections by up to half. This also explains why they go away in summer months.

 

[nd_eric_77]

Finally, on a more hopeful note, there may be an additional plausible explanation as to why Indonesia is not experiencing an outbreak. Basically, a daily low dose of Vitamin D (as you would get from the sun by just living in a tropical country), has been shown to reduce respiratory infections by up to half. This also explains why they go away in summer months.

This is also consistent with the seasonality of flu-type viruses; longer days = more sunlight = more vitamin D; seasonal flu typically peters out around late April / early May.

 

[gemima]

Also it mostly affects old people 70+ (in terms of who would need hospital admission), and in Indonesia half of the people don't make it to that age anyway.

I know so many 50 year olds here who seem to be about as healthy as 70 year olds back in Europe. Years of poor nutrition/ lack of exercise/ air pollution and smoking (mainly in men) really do catch up and I really hope this doesn't spread widely here. In Lombardy right now the hospitals are being overrun with cases and some will die for lack of a respirator.

 

[BPNBound]

More good news

 

[harryopal1]

Some kinda good news

Some of the countries that have done more widespread testing happen to have lower CFRs. In South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they’ve picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That’s a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

If the Corona virus really swept through Indonesia and if only half the population were infected that would still mean, with a fatality rate of 0.5%, about 650,000 deaths. But then I never was much good at maths so someone can correct me

 

[nd_eric_77]

If the Corona virus really swept through Indonesia and if only half the population were infected that would still mean, with a fatality rate of 0.5%, about 650,000 deaths. But then I never was much good at maths so someone can correct me

260m /2 = 130m
0.5% of 130 m = 650k.
Your numbers appear accurate. Terrifying, but accurate.