Afghanistan situation.

[Balifrog]

I’m just getting more and more skeptical about democracy imposed through foreign military intervention.

"Military intervention to impose democracy"
That's is a contradiction and doomed to fail in nearly all cases. Even going back to the Crusades.

 

[fastpitch17]

Seems like the former administration had a larger share of the blame than I previously thought.

Pompeo Is Lying About Afghanistan

slate.com

As for the why it happened as it did the former administration played the major roll in what happened in Afghanistan and the take over by the Talaban. It just came out by a Pence aid that all attempts to get Afghaniesn out during the previous administation was met with anti immigrant/anti Muslim arguments from Steven Miller who Trump put full faith into.

Biden who inherited a complete mess with no plan in place to withdraw easily, has his hands full. Of course, even as some State Department personnel and Embassy Personnel in Afghanistan informed the president that his timeline may be shortened, he went with those saying there was more time. Would it have made a difference if he announced an evacuation sooner? Probably not.

People are calling Biden's actions a complete failure. Based on information that is out there, maybe so but unlike all these armchair experts I will refrain from making that decision until this all wraps up. I have no idea of or have access to all the information that is not being released. I guess like so many I could sit back and guess but seriously, where does that get anyone? The trump goons will continue to find fault no matter what but to me, it will be the final outcome in regards to what happenes with Afghans qualified to leave and any American Citizens still there.

People are squaking about all the Afghans that should come out. Yeah, maybe they should but my question is, how many are actually qualified to do so? If they worked directly for the foreign Governments then yes, they should. If they worked for the Afghan government, yes they should. Journalist, by all means. The UK just turned away some fleeing because they worked for contractors and not hired by the government. This goes to what I stated previously that these companies need to step up and assist their employees and not put the burdens on their respected governments. Get out who qualifies and then if you got room, get the younger women out. Right now, anyone and everyone seems to want to get out. That is not the mission of foreign governments. Assets first. Governments owe them that.

What is not getting the reporting it deserves is how China is already getting into Afghanistan. Maybe they are trying to be the ones to now control the poppy fields, who knows but we know they will be up to no good.

 

[harryopal1]

A concern from here is not about trying to impose democracy so much as to have some means to temper the more extreme measures of summary executions, torture, denial of basic human rights and the total oppression of women. Afghanistan is not an island. International trade will require interaction with other countries. Sanctions seem to offer an appropriate means of having some influence of a beneficial nature

 

[Balifrog]

What is not getting the reporting it deserves is how China is already getting into Afghanistan. Maybe they are trying to be the ones to now control the poppy fields, who knows but we know they will be up to no good.

Bolt : Why do you think that ?
China has till now never militarily invaded any country, or tried to overthrow governments unlike the US.
They just want to do business. Also China makes long term plans (10, 20, 30 years), Xi Ping is not worried about elections, and there is no change of policy every 4 or 5 years.

Another point not often mentioned is that what is happening at the moment is a brain drain of people, many of them educated or trained and who are the most needed to reconstruct the country.

Concerning the "late" evacuation starting date, note that France started evacuation people in May.
Now I do realize that, had the US done that it would have been taken as a signal that US knew the battle was lost and the consequences would have been panic, loss of face, credibility etc....


Google translate from Le Monde :

"Paris grants asylum to Afghans who have worked for France
The decision to evacuate 600 people, Afghan staff and their families, is causing a stir among NGOs and its European partners.
On Monday 10 May, France launched a vast operation enabling a hundred Afghans who have worked for France and their families to obtain asylum on French soil. In total, more than six hundred people are already affected by this measure, which responds to a very pessimistic analysis of the country's future, while the ongoing withdrawal of US forces puts the Taliban insurgents in a position of strength vis-à-vis the Kabul regime. This decision, taken without the knowledge of the Afghan authorities, is, however, creating a stir with European partners who have not been consulted and, for some, dispute its validity. Similarly, NGOs fear that this could jeopardise their activities.
On Monday, the first beneficiaries – including French teachers and their relatives – flew to Paris. Three to four other departures are planned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which finances the operation: it offers visas, pays for air tickets, pays each a small stipend, takes care of accommodation and accompanies asylum procedures with the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra).
While the government had to make three efforts to bring to France the Afghan translators who had served alongside the French soldiers sent to Afghanistan between 2008 and the end of 2012, this time the selection criteria were extended to as many people as possible. This is even if the reality of the danger involved is not clearly established. "

 

[harryopal1]

......
China has till now never militarily invaded any country, or tried to overthrow governments unlike the US.
They just want to do business. .....

Tibetans and Vietnamese might not agree.

 

[Balifrog]

Tibetans and Vietnamese might not agree.

Tibet is a controversial one...
VN, the Americans are a bit in a awkward position to judge ?
And the Chinese didn't invade, they helped .....

China in the Vietnam War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

"China, in particular, also played an important role in the Vietnam wars during 1950~1975. China helped Vietnam against French forces during the First Indochina War and later helped North Vietnam unite the nation by fighting South Vietnam and the United States in the Vietnam War. However, with the failure of the North Vietnamese and Chinese negotiations in 1968, the PRC began to withdraw support for the sake of preparing for a clash with the Soviets. Chinese influence over North Vietnam diminished from that point.[1]:ix–x"

 

[harryopal1]

It is not a matter of American judgement. Historically China has been an invading force over many centuries and invaded Vietnam in 1979. As you say, invasion of Tibet is controversial as China argues it is part of China. I am not sure that most Tibetans see it that way.

 

[Balifrog]

It is not a matter of American judgement. Historically China has been an invading force over many centuries and invaded Vietnam in 1979. As you say, invasion of Tibet is controversial as China argues it is part of China. I am not sure that most Tibetans see it that way.

At the beach for.lunch, so I have better things to do than dig up history....
But if I dont end up drunk, I'll answer later.
Meanwhile, Google and Wiki are your friends !

Surprised you didn't include the Korean War in your argumentation ?

 

[harryopal1]

That reminds me of a film about the Korean war in the 50s. An American officer, played by Frank Lovejoy is surveying the field after a battle and there are dead Chinese soldiers. "Chinese. What are they doing here?" And from the cinema audience, "Selling dim sims,"

Ironic I suppose as it might have been asked, "Americans. What are they doing here?" And the response might have been, "Selling Coca-Cola." Korea is a bit closer to China than the USA,

 

[fastpitch17]

A concern from here is not about trying to impose democracy so much as to have some means to temper the more extreme measures of summary executions, torture, denial of basic human rights and the total oppression of women. Afghanistan is not an island. International trade will require interaction with other countries. Sanctions seem to offer an appropriate means of having some influence of a beneficial nature

I doubt China cares a rats ass if extreme measures are tempered or not. China is after control of the world with one not paid back debt after another. China would fit in well in the middle of chaos.

 

[Balifrog]

I have started to read the latest SIGAR report on "reconstructing Afghanistan".

Very interesting read, surprising it was allowed to go public as it explains (over 140 pages) how the USA state agencies f*cked up during nearly 20 years, and ignored multiples warnings from people in the field.
Note that this report concerns the "reconstruction / aid / democratization" efforts and not the military actions.
Military just follows orders and government plans, they are not there to judge them.
Although on the training of the ANA and ANP they raised many, many times their concerns.

File is too large to upload it seems, but you can find it here.

Just the "Executive Summary" at the start of the report will give you a good resume.
Should be interesting for US citizen to see where you tax money was thrown at ?

https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/lessonslearned/SIGAR-21-46-LL.pdf

Extracts :
LESSON 2 The U.S. government consistently underestimated the amount of time required to rebuild Afghanistan, and created unrealistic timelines and expectations that prioritized spending quickly. These choices increased corruption and reduced the effectiveness of programs

“Corruption is not just a problem for the system of governance in Afghanistan; it is the system of governance.” —Rangin Spanta, former Afghan national security advisor

The United States’ determination to draw down clashed with realities on the ground. The Taliban remained resilient, and the insurgency became emboldened by the drawdown of U.S. and coalition military forces. In 2013, General Joseph Dunford stated, “The gains that we have made to date are not going to be sustainable without continued international commitment. . . . We are not where we need to be yet.” Less than a year later, in March 2014, he warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that, upon coalition troops’ withdrawal, “the Afghan security forces will begin to deteriorate.” He added that “the only debate is the pace of that deterioration.”20

Last phrase pronounced in 2014, and in 2021 nothing had improved.....

Personal opinion : The ANA military were doomed to fail, mainly due to no motivation, but also as they had been working as simple infantry and all their logistics, medevac, air support was done by the US ARMY.
Once the US (army + contractors) left, they had no chance. Don't forget that for 1 combatant in the field you need 4, 5 or 6 in the rear to support / supply / medical / transport / equipment maintenance etc....

Not even speaking about the maintenance of the equipment, which was mainly done by US contractors.

 

[harryopal1]

VS Naipaul in his book Among the Believers noted the tendency for Islamic countries to neglect infrastructure where the main priority was to have their people be good Muslims and the notion with that achieved these country would then function beautifully . The Taliban commitment to ensuring all under their control act as good Muslims using beatings and terror as methods of coercion does not augur well for development of a governing system that will give adequate attention to infrastructure.

The Taliban organized women's march bearing slogans such as "We do not want co-education" that encourages the unharnessing of the potential of Afghan women says much about the mysogynist , Medieval thinking. Why waste time on ephemeral things such as infrastructure when the people need to be trained into correct religious adherence. When that is achieved there will really be paradise on earth...... but don't hold your breath.

 

[atlantis]

And the Chinese didn't invade, they helped .....

Harryopal wasn't referring to the involvement of China in the VN war, but to events post 1975, the one we sometimes call in French "la troisieme guerre d'Indochine".
In 1979, thinking that VN was weak enough after decades of war, China invaded the northern provinces of Cao bang and Lang Son but had to deal with more resistance than expected and suffered unexpected casualties.
After a few weeks they retreated trying to save face by saying that the "punitive" action was ended. China didn't appreciate that the VN forces put down Polpot and the Red Khmers and decided the invasion in retaliation, mixed with allegations that the Chinese community residing in VN was maltreated and the occupation by VN of some the Spratley islands.
Beside Tibet and VN, one could have named India too among the countries which had to deal with Chinese military invasion of some of its territory. In 1962 China invaded the North Eastern part of India and till now relations between India and China are still very tense along the borders.
As much has I believe that a blank statement with no further elaboration that "we know they will be up to no good" is controversial, saying that Chinese "has till now never militarily invaded any country" is a very odd rewriting of History.

 

[dafluff]

As much has I believe that a blank statement with no further elaboration that "we know they will be up to no good" is controversial, saying that Chinese "has till now never militarily invaded any country" is a very odd rewriting of History.

Not to forget the Yuan Dynasty invasion of Java in 1292-1293.

 

[Balifrog]

Not to forget the Yuan Dynasty invasion of Java in 1292-1293.

That's maybe going back a little far ....

 

[Nimbus]

Harryopal wasn't referring to the involvement of China in the VN war, but to events post 1975, the one we sometimes call in French "la troisieme guerre d'Indochine".
In 1979, thinking that VN was weak enough after decades of war, China invaded the northern provinces of Cao bang and Lang Son but had to deal with more resistance than expected and suffered unexpected casualties.
After a few weeks they retreated trying to save face by saying that the "punitive" action was ended. China didn't appreciate that the VN forces put down Polpot and the Red Khmers and decided the invasion in retaliation, mixed with allegations that the Chinese community residing in VN was maltreated and the occupation by VN of some the Spratley islands.
Beside Tibet and VN, one could have named India too among the countries which had to deal with Chinese military invasion of some of its territory. In 1962 China invaded the North Eastern part of India and till now relations between India and China are still very tense along the borders.
As much has I believe that a blank statement with no further elaboration that "we know they will be up to no good" is controversial, saying that Chinese "has till now never militarily invaded any country" is a very odd rewriting of History.

China would love to have a strong presence in Afghanistan, because it would give her a land connection to Pakistan, then to the Arabian sea. Can you say oil pipeline? Like China, Pakistan went to war with India. The fact that the Taliban was largely financed and supported by Pakistan surely helps.

 

[Bad_azz]

China would love to have a strong presence in Afghanistan, because it would give her a land connection to Pakistan, then to the Arabian sea. Can you say oil pipeline? Like China, Pakistan went to war with India. The fact that the Taliban was largely financed and supported by Pakistan surely helps.

This was exactly what I was showing hubby on the map a couple of weeks (or whenever) back when it was published about China & the Taliban in cahoots.

 

[Balifrog]

China would love to have a strong presence in Afghanistan, because it would give her a land connection to Pakistan, then to the Arabian sea. Can you say oil pipeline? Like China, Pakistan went to war with India. The fact that the Taliban was largely financed and supported by Pakistan surely helps.

This was exactly what I was showing hubby on the map a couple of weeks (or whenever) back when it was published about China & the Taliban in cahoots.

IMHO, China is more interested in a pipe line connection with Iran.
Iran exports a lot of crude oil to China, and by sea (as they do at the moment) it is a long and expensive way. See map

China Is Buying Record Amounts of Iranian Oil

China is moving closer to Iran than ever before, but the partnership still has limits.

thediplomat.com

Analysis: Iran slips record volume of oil into China, reaches out to Asian clients for trade resumption

(This March 8 story corrects unit in chart 3 to metric tonnes/month (not bpd))

www.reuters.com

For Afghanistan is would be a nice income as they would charge a "transit fee" (Same as Ukraine is doing for gas from Russia to Germany)

But building this would take several years, although China can do things very fast when they want.

Edit : Note that China already possesses a military base and port in Pakistan :

A New China Military Base in Pakistan?

Reports about Beijing trying to acquire another facility there could have significant consequences for the region.

thediplomat.com

China is Building a Military Base in Pakistan

China is building an offshore naval base for warships near a strategic Pakistani port.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Dave70]

Not to forget the Yuan Dynasty invasion of Java in 1292-1293.

I clicked on the link you provided and the title of the page is "Mongol invasion of Java".

Anyway, Mongols were not considered "Chinese" at that time. Remember Genghis Khan? Kublai Khan of the Yuan Dynasty is his grandson. Today, Mongols in China constitute less than half of 1% (about 6 million) of China's total population. Those in China are now considered Chinese as they hold Chinese nationality. They are also recognized as one of China's 56 ethnic groups.

 

[Balifrog]

I clicked on the link you provided and the title of the page is "Mongol invasion of Java".

Anyway, Mongols were not considered "Chinese" at that time. Remember Genghis Khan? Kublai Khan of the Yuan Dynasty is his grandson. Today, Mongols in China constitute less than half of 1% (about 6 million) of China's total population. Those in China are now considered Chinese as they hold Chinese nationality. They are also recognized as one of China's 56 ethnic groups.

And even in those days they were already blamed for spreading deadly diseases....

Mongol invasions and conquests - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

"Historians regard the Mongol devastation as one of the deadliest episodes in history.[1][2] In addition, Mongol expeditions may have spread the bubonic plague across much of Eurasia, helping to spark the Black Death of the 14th century."