Afghanistan situation.

[Balifrog]

It seems rather similar to Myanmar. The West spends ages pumping money in, trying to build a new country, and then the military comes in (with zero popular support, but control of the weapons) and takes over. In fact the Taliban does have support in the country, possibly up to 40% largely in the remoter areas, whereas the only people supporting the Myanmar junta are the army and their families (and not even all of them). Anyway both countries have to deal with their own issues now, a major one in both cases will be armed insurgency from various other minority groups.

Completely different situation.

 

[Balifrog]

Glad you specified "Western" lives. Wouldn't want to think you cared about non-Western lives.

I mean it more as chief of western states decided to send guys over there for 20 years with bad losses, to just change their mind and bail out without having achieves anything.
That is not acceptable.
Now I could speak about local civilians killed by the western forces, conveniently called "colateral damage" but I don't want to go in that field.
Concerning the death of the ANA, they fought (or were supposed to..) for their country.

 

[Balifrog]

but I have always felt a lot of skepticism about the possibility of imposing democracy there.

That was the first and biggest mistake. We are not in the colonial era anymore where we can send soldiers and missionaries to "convince" people in some country at the other side of the world to accept our view as the only good one.
The idea of "country building" was doomed to fail from day 1.
Local people in any country, don't want some strangers with bizarre customs, and walking around with guns coming tell them how to run their country.
The other points you mentioned are spot on as well.
Add to that the complete ignorance of the Americans military about local customs, history and religion, which doesn't help.

This is a very good BBC docu on the subject :


Part one about the British Empire disaster, part 2 the Soviet and American part.
At the very end of part 1 the old man resumes in one phrase very well the mind of the majority of Afghans, and why nobody will ever change the country. Except themselves.

 

[Hawk256]

The Afgan military had training and support from the US. They chose not to fight, it really is that simple. All the debates and reasons will not change that fact. Right or wrong if you aren't willing to fight for what you believe in, did you really deserve it in the first place? Peace is preferred but sometimes there are no other options. This was one of those times. Surrender and accept the consequences.

 

[Balifrog]

The Afgan military had training and support from the US. They chose not to fight, it really is that simple. All the debates and reasons will not change that fact. Right or wrong if you aren't willing to fight for what you believe in, did you really deserve it in the first place? Peace is preferred but sometimes there are no other options. This was one of those times. Surrender and accept the consequences.

The level of the ANA recrutes was very low, many illiterate. Poorly paid (when paid) and with no real structure behind them. Senior officers mostly corrupt, an unknown number of soldiers existing only on paper so that the officers can pocket their salary, etc....
Plenty info about all that. And the Allied troops in the field were sure aware of all this, but by the time the report arrives in Washington it has been "enhanced" to suit what the politicians wanted to hear.

On the other the elite troops (S.F. , commandos) seemed to be good and have fought hard, but abandoned by their hierarchies, not properly supplied, I understand that at a moment they have given up as well.
The way the US abandoned them overnight sure didn't help !

 

[Hawk256]

The level of the ANA recrutes was very low, many illiterate. Poorly paid (when paid) and with no real structure behind them. Senior officers mostly corrupt, an unknown number of soldiers existing only on paper so that the officers can pocket their salary, etc....
Plenty info about all that. And the Allied troops in the field were sure aware of all this, but by the time the report arrives in Washington it has been "enhanced" to suit what the politicians wanted to hear.

On the other the elite troops (S.F. , commandos) seemed to be good and have fought hard, but abandoned by their hierarchies, not properly supplied, I understand that at a moment they have given up as well.
The way the US abandoned them overnight sure didn't help !

Those are valid points but the US wouldn't have gained independence from Britain if it required a highly paid military. Soldiers throughout history have not been well paid if paid at all. If you are doing it for the money then you are just a mercenary, not fighting for beliefs or freedom. Supply lines and structure are part of an effective military. If it is broken at that level, then surrender might have been the best option.

Any peace or freedom that exists has been "paid" for by someone. Either with their blood and sweat or their life. The US was not going to prop up Afghanistan forever. Sooner or later it was inevitable. It just happened to be sooner. If a frog had wings, it wouldn't bump it's ass when it hopped but we know how that turned out. All the if's won't change the reality.

 

[Balifrog]

Those are valid points but the US wouldn't have gained independence from Britain if it required a highly paid military

Haha, I can't resist a little off topic... "Good France helped you"

Concerning Afghanistan, I just read a comment on another forum (aviation), concerning the overwhelming presence of males on that plane pic. "We should have trained / armed the women, at least they had something to fight for".
Not completely wrong.
Worked pretty well with the Kurds.

 

[dafluff]

The problem was that only 1 side was fighting for what they believed in, which was the Taliban. The other side were mercenaries and or a small minority who did not have a chance without foreign backing. That US intelligence did not see this is hilariously bad, or they drank their own Kool-Aid believing that everyone wants democracy and the American Way of Life(TM). This outcome was preordained the first day US troops entered Afghanistan. The only thing that the Biden Administration should have done better is an orderly withdrawal and giving asylum to anyone who jeopardized their life by assisting the US.

The rest of the world gets to once again learn that if you ally with the US, you can expect to be left high and dry at a moment's notice. It doesn't matter what party the President is from. Trump screwed over the Kurds in Syria, Biden is more or less doing the same to Afghan allies.

The "good news" is that so far the 2021 Taliban is much more sophisticated than the 2001 Taliban. It has already established ties with China and Russia, and so far has limited atrocities in recently reconquered areas. I am hopeful that they end up being closer to Saudi Arabia rather than ISIS, in terms of respecting human rights.

 

[Balifrog]

Biden is more or less doing the same to Afghan allies.

Agreed with you post, but remember it was Trump who started / signed the peace talks with the Talibans, and set a withdrawal deadline on May 31 .
And yes Biden and the military could have organized the withdrawal a bit better, instead of bailing out at night.
Keeping Bagram airbase a bit longer would have allowed to have 2 airports from which to evacuate people.

 

[Balifrog]

Meanwhile the Talibans seems to enjoy the fun of city life ....

(Hoping the links work)

 

[R Cameron]

or they drank their own Kool-Aid believing that everyone wants democracy and the American Way of Life(TM).

I just checked Google Maps and it seems Kabul doesn't even have a McDonald's or Starbucks, so of course they didn't have anything to fight for!

 

[Dharma Police]

Terrible sight, especially the people holding on to the wheels of the plane as it took off. The plan was to slowly pull the troops out, I don't know what Biden was thinking. Then again, I don't know what any president is thinking, because a serious cognitive dissonance sets in whenever the issue of foreign policy vs. national security comes up.

"Bring the troops home!" is a sentiment I agree with, but not like this. The civilians of Afghanistan got bamboozled.

 

[Nimbus]

Obama started the talks with the Taliban (secretly), then the next president screwed it up. Biden desperately wants to end this fruitless money drain, but he executed it poorly. I feel for the Afghans, and I’m thankful that I wasn’t born as one of them.

As for all the young people fleeing, if I understand it correctly they can only get on the plane if they worked for Americans, mostly interpreters embedded with U.S. military units. As U.S. collaborators they are sought by the Taliban, probably not for a cordial handshake. Thousands of interpreters have been trying to get to USA as promised, but the previous administration slow-walked the visa process for obvious reasons.

As I said before, Bush and his Neocons got America into this mess, and everybody else was just trying to (borrowing military jargon) unfuck it, some do poorer than others. Invading Afghanistan was questionable, but invading Iraq was unjustifiable. The divided resource and attention doomed any hope of building Afghanistan. It was nothing more than 2 decades of whack-a-mole. All they did was shoot at any Taliban who popped out.

At the end of the day Afghans are so divided and lacking unified resolve that only Americans and the Taliban can hold them together. America has had her fill, so unfortunately for the Afghans it’s the Taliban’s turn.

 

[Balifrog]

The rest of the world gets to once again learn that if you ally with the US, you can expect to be left high and dry at a moment's notice.

Yep, and it seems somebody noticed that as well ....

What could Taiwan learn from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan?

Circumstances differ, but some observers say US will ultimately follow its own interest, as Afghanistan falls to Taliban weeks after American troops pull out.

www.scmp.com

"What could Taiwan learn from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan?​

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised concerns in Taiwan
that Washington may one day abandon the self-ruled island in its defence against Beijing’s threats, potentially resulting in parallels with the Kabul regime and the Saigon government in 1975.

Observers said that although the United States pulling its troops out of Afghanistan and Vietnam should not be compared to its security commitment to Taiwan, the island’s government may need to think more deeply about whether to put its eggs in the US basket and continue its China-bashing policy"

 

[Balifrog]

Something I only learned a few weeks ago.
Not surprising the Chinese have an eye on Afghanistan !

The Taliban now controls one of the world’s biggest lithium deposits

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan complicates America's competition with China on clean energy.

qz.com

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

But this is a far stretched, it takes 5 to 7 ears to bring a mine from exploration / planning to production in a developed country with proper infrastructure, so in a place like Afghanistan..... Although, beware if the Chinese really get serious about this they can do amazing things in very short time.

 

[fastpitch17]

20 some years, 4 US Presidents. Time to get out, it just isn't working. The US and the Coalition forces knew the Talaban were at the gates. They knew the money being thrown at the nation was being siphoned off to politicians, local businesses, and foreign businesses including US ones. They knew that while they could train and equip a military, they couldn't train commitment or courage. They knew the sitting government was only interested in themselves and just worked towards handouts from others. Yes, it was time to go but how the US did it leaves a lot of bad taste in my mouth.

Trump's deal with the Talaban while not allowing the Afgan gov a seat at the table stunk to high heaven. He gave the Talaban whatever they wanted including the release if the prisoners Afghanistan held. This includes the ones now leading the Talaban and who will be their president. Any simple minded person knew the Talaban could never be trusted. That agreement opened the door for the Talaban to take control of Afghanistan today.

Biden's administration messed up the entire exit strategy. Waited too long. Sure, the Talaban were running over the nation in an easy fashion with no government personnel apposing them as well as laying down the arms of the military. Still, more could have been done to get these people out. Many, including US citizens are stuck outside the airport with no corridor available to get to the airport. The US Pentagon says they can only protect people at the boundary of the airport. The US knew the Talaban were martching but even though they thought it would take longer that it did, they drug their feet to round these people up. That lack of processing is now going to cause a lot if death in Afghanistan.

For those that think this is just like Vietnam, it is not. I was involved with that and this isn't the same. The evacuation in Vietnam was put together in a matter of a couple days and tens if thousands of people were rescued. Afganistan had months to plan.

The Indonesian VP states he expects no bloodshed from the Talaban in Afganistan. Not sure where he is getting his information but I think he will be found to be very incorrect. This is the Talaban. They are waiting for the US to exit. The US still has airpower near by but once they are out, it's no longer an option. They have waited 20 years and know another few weeks brings them great success. Then, you will see the real Talaban.

The Talaban have already been putting in place their laws. Women are not to leave their houses without a male escort. News reporters that expect to be accepted must have full face and hand coverings. You will see the end to female education. There have already been reports from out side Kabul that Talaban have ordered daughters taken to marry their fighters. The world is watching Kabul while the Talaban instill their rules in other parts of the nation that there is no reporting from. The Talaban has in the oast rounded up thise that have worked with who they consider enemies and herded them into soccer stadiums for mass killings. I don't see why anyone would expect anything else from them.

The Al Qaeda will be moving in shortly along with ISIS. This will become a terrorist planning area like has never been seen. Of course, China got in their right away. Figures. Probably want to supply the poppy supervision.

Afganistan. There is no good news.

 

[fastpitch17]

As for the evacuations. Many of these interpreters worked for NGOs and private firms. The US is attempting to get them out but one has to ask, where are the NGOs and private firms.

 

[Balifrog]

For those that think this is just like Vietnam, it is not. I was involved with that and this isn't the same. The evacuation in Vietnam was put together in a matter of a couple days and tens if thousands of people were rescued. Afganistan had months to plan

Different environment, Saigon is only a short helicopter hop from Vungtau Bay where aircraft carrier(s ?) were waiting.

Operation Frequent Wind - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I was 22 at the time and French Navy, we followed the news quite closely.

 

[Balifrog]

No US bashing, but this is typical USA arrogance.
WTH, after 20 years with zero result, a nightly "escape" leaving a bloody mess behind, the W.H. dares to come up with this kind of shit .....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teletrader.com/amp/news/details/56217836

"White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki stated on Tuesday that the Taliban will face the "full force and weight" of the United States military if their promise to provide safe passage for civilians to Kabul's airport is not kept. Psaki refused to comment further on the potential plans but assured reporters that the Taliban is well aware of the operational capacity that the US army has."

The Talibs must be laughing their ass of !

 

[R Cameron]

@Balifrog It's arrogant for the US to think they can win hearts and minds to democracy with an occupying force and puppet government. It's not arrogant for the US to think they can retaliate effectively with an extreme show of force.

They have had a peace deal that has been (mostly) kept for 18 months, the Taliban is completely aware how foolish it would be to break that now, Psaki's comment was made for American media consumption, not for communicating a message to Taliban leadership.