4/11, 25/11 and 2/12 anti-Ahok demonstrations

[fastpitch17]

Ahok and Aines are staying fairly close right now. If it stays that way, there will be a runoff election.

 

[fastpitch17]

If he won the JKT election? i don't think he really have a chance to be honest.

I also think that SBY knows that he would have no chance to have his 38 years old son accepted by a coalition of political party as a capres or cawapres in two years. Surely he wanted to launch him in the political arena, but i think that he is blinded by the love for his son. He was able to get his politically inexperienced son accepted for the Pilkada DKI because the strongmen of the PPP, PAN and PKB are not much interested by the job for themselves. Presidential election is another matter however.

Honestly I can't remember having read a serious iIndonesian political analyst attributing to SBY a will to have his son competing in the next presidential election. He is still a toddler comparing to any of the would be candidate.

Sure, he wanted to launch him into a political career but the Jakarta governorship was the wrong way to do so. A total humiliation at the election could hurt him in the future too. SBY just made a silly selfish move putting his inexperienced son in there.

 

[Davita]

Yeh! FP is right it is currently close...I was using an average of three polling analysts and the difference is only some 5-6% in favor of Ahok but the pollsters are forecasting Ahok with a big final lead of some 58%.

I'm watching MetroTV and will post if any drama ensues.

 

[fastpitch17]

If Ahok gets a big push and hits 50% in the end it's over. I just don't see that happening but then again, anything is possible.

 

[El_Goretto]

Shared by @RapplerID:

"real quick count". Hope it's not just wishful thinking.

 

[Daniel50]

My wife said not to underestimate peoples strong view of religion here. Some really believe they should not vote for someone of a different religion. She wishes ahok could have controlled his tongue a bit better. Hopefully, he wins then we can get on to the next plot to bring him down.

 

[El_Goretto]

For those with access to reddit, this thread looks like a better source for live quick counts.

 

[El_Goretto]

From Reddit above. Updated at 4pm:

The bolded survery institutes are registered with persepi.

 

[Saudade]

I have a friend who just send me a whassap saying he voted to Ahok, he lives in Europe and traveled all the way from Europe just to vote Ahok today, he arrived yesterday and go back to Europe on Monday. He hopes he win totally and not need to come back to vote again.

 

[El_Goretto]

Updated at 4.30pm (source):

 

[El_Goretto]

People denied voting at TPS 89: https://www.facebook.com/yuni.cung/videos/10206229326971822/

 

[fastpitch17]

People denied voting at TPS 89: https://www.facebook.com/yuni.cung/videos/10206229326971822/

Very interesting. People were on FB last week complaining that a lot of people's name have been removed and were try to get registered.

 

[fastpitch17]

Ahok wins FPI base camp.

https://en.tempo.co/read/news/2017/02/15/057846829/Ahok-Wins-at-FPIs-Base-Polling-Station

 

[Davita]

With over 95% of votes counted in looks very much like a run-off election in May.

At least with Agus out of the way maybe the FPI money-stream will dry up and some of that behind the scenes manipulation will vanish. I'm not sure the Anies/Sandy team are very interested in FPI support but the election will still look like 'religion versus pragmatism'.

Edit: I read somewhere that the next round will be on April 19th.

 

[fastpitch17]

With over 95% of votes counted in looks very much like a run-off election in May.

At least with Agus out of the way maybe the FPI money-stream will dry up and some of that behind the scenes manipulation will vanish. I'm not sure the Anies/Sandy team are very interested in FPI support but the election will still look like 'religion versus pragmatism'.

I think they very much want the FPI support. It was Anies that appeared with the FPI leadership previously. Before May you will see a lot of FPI activity I think but not like before with possibly the removal of SBY cash. Then again. SBY is all in flutters and wants to make the current administration look bad, so who knows. No matter, there will be a lot said about religion between now and then. I think Ahok's trial will be finished by then too.

 

[fastpitch17]

A run off between Ahok and Anies would be a precursor to the presidential election in 2019. It will Jokow's party against Prabowo's party basically and you can bet, all stops will be pulled. This run off could get ugly, and entertaining. The world will for sure be watching.

 

[Davita]

Rumour has it that Ahok called Trump and asked for advice on how to win the run-off election.

Trump replied "Call Putin! He'll fix it...look what he did for me. He's one of the good guys and you'll be able to make Jakarta great, unless someone wishes to assassinate.....that's a problem I haven't figured out yet."...:lol:.

 

[Davita]

The Jakarta election and Ahok's legal problems are getting International attention.
I've just watched a documentary on Al Jazeera called 'Inside Story' on this subject...here's the link but I also think it will be repeated throughout the day on Al Jazeera (Inside Story)......
http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes...donesia-tolerant-country-170215203511532.html

edit: repeat at 2:30pm and again 00:30am both Jakarta time.

 

[tokektokek]

Well, it is a huge disappointment that Ahok did not win outright. I am absolutely amazed that people were voting for the fanatic, I would love to find some of these people and ask why. But then again, considering there are actually people who went out and voted for Trump to be a President, nothing is surprising anymore.

There are already reports of intimidation and people being unable to vote. The fact this is all being allowed to go on is a huge worry, much more tighter security is needed, and a much stronger, zero tolerance hand brought down on loser groups like the FPI etc.

 

[fastpitch17]

Anies camp people are saying the Democrats say they will support him. The democrats say they have said no such thing yet. Who's talking to who I wonder. Dems are not going to join the PDI-P candidate with the current SBY political wrangling and he probably won't be lining up to support Prabowo's boy either. The political voices are saying SBY brought down his sons campaign but SBY is like Trump in that he would never admit being a negative and he will never admit defeat.

On a good note. Aman Dhani went down in flames in Bekasi.