A new era of world wide poverty

[harryopal1]

When one looks back at the period of industrialization as new machinery replaced vast numbers of people in the workplace it is clear that the benefits of increased efficiency and profit to factory owners coincided with a complete lack of preparation by most governments as poverty and unemployment created enormous social and humanitarian problems.

By all accounts it seems we are on the cusp of another major, worldwide social upheaval with the rapid developments of artificial intelligence and robotization again sweeping away employment but creating great profits for many businesses. Is anyone aware of any country that has seriously addressed the implications of this imminent workplace revolution? Without adequate planning we may be looking at another worldwide depression. Or am I just being unduly imaginative and pessimistic?

 

[ChrisTex]

From what I have been reading, there is going to be a recession either later this year or next year. Haven't see anything about a depression, but that isn't to say one won't happen. Plus, with AI and robotics, I think a lot of it is in the testing stage to see what happens.

One would hope there has been some sort of planning regarding it, but I doubt there has been. unless it has all been behind the scenes.
We have seen some it already in place with self check outs and at some airports and restrauents having some sort of R2D2 type robot cleaning/serving. Businesses will need to weigh in how much those things cost, shelf life, and for repairs. Also, how hackable are they to do damage? The Blacklist. S9.E13 in a way brings it to light.

 

[MamangDudul]

To make it simple, this is definitely gonna be trouble. Also a lot of taxes are going down the drain. Or do machines also have to pay taxes? Would maybe be an idea...

Anyway since a long time already I have the feeling that we are more and more close to drastic changes. The old world is going to be gone, for better or worse. Personally I fear it will get even more shitty than it already is. Of course people like Klaus Schwab and his friends from the WEF are telling us otherwise. That's just one example, though.

Iam pretty much a positive person but I don't have high hopes when we talk about the bigger picture. The shit will..or already hit the fan.

 

[snpark]

You see now in the Apple store the staff asking for tips after you've spent $2,000 on your "new" iPhone 26

 

[serious_fun]

Of course people like Klaus Schwab and his friends from the WEF are telling us otherwise.

I think that the WEF-fers are telling us exactly what the richest people who own/run the world are planning to do.

Gone are the days when a "Globalist Agenda" could be easily dismissed by referring to it as a conspiracy theory.

 

[R Cameron]

Andrew Yang ran for the US presidency in 2020 on a platform focused almost entirely on this issue. He wrote a book two years prior call The War On Normal People. He of course failed in the primary, but it put the concept of Universal Basic Income in the public awareness. There have been a number of UBI-type programs (some openly called experiments) around the world: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/19/21112570/universal-basic-income-ubi-map

Five years ago the primary automation talk was about all the factory workers and truck and taxi drivers who would be replaced, but one of the greatest surprises of the past 6-12 months is the realization that automation is for the white collar (accounting, programming, design) jobs much faster than it is the blue collar jobs.

 

[MamangDudul]

Andrew Yang ran for the US presidency in 2020 on a platform focused almost entirely on this issue. He wrote a book two years prior call The War On Normal People. He of course failed in the primary, but it put the concept of Universal Basic Income in the public awareness. There have been a number of UBI-type programs (some openly called experiments) around the world: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/2/19/21112570/universal-basic-income-ubi-map

Five years ago the primary automation talk was about all the factory workers and truck and taxi drivers who would be replaced, but one of the greatest surprises of the past 6-12 months is the realization that automation is for the white collar (accounting, programming, design) jobs much faster than it is the blue collar jobs.

Interesting.

Yeah, all this talk about UBI got more and more frequent and popular over the years.

I have a wild conspiracy theory, but yeah, combine UBI with the slow cancellation of paying cash and add a Chinese social point system (or something similar) and you have a lot more control over people.

Of course something like this would never happen..

 

[Samoerai]

Is anyone aware of any country that has seriously addressed the implications of this imminent workplace revolution? Without adequate planning we may be looking at another worldwide depression. Or am I just being unduly imaginative and pessimistic?

I think we have bigger problems than this. We, the world, are on 'tipping points' . Tipping points to sudden major changes due to climate change. Sudden large rises in sea level, extreme droughts, large forest fires, food shortages, etc. Here in Indonesia there will be - I predict - uprisings, like in 1998. The people will then blame certain groups for these problems. One should be prepared for that. Better be prepared 'yesterday' then tomorrow, because tipping points for changes are not gradually, but sudden changes to the extreme.

 

[harryopal1]

How encouraging. While Indonesia is committed to a new capital in Kalimantan I am not sure what government has in mind for the majority of people living in Jakarta who will not be going to Kalimantan. I am not sure what the expectations are for further descent of the city and the consequent increased levels of flooding. Already there are areas where it seems they will flood with any downfall of rain. Any ideas as to how this is meant to pan out and what contingency plans there are to deal with this?

 

[Helpful Herbert]

I think we have bigger problems than this. We, the world, are on 'tipping points' . Tipping points to sudden major changes due to climate change. Sudden large rises in sea level, extreme droughts, large forest fires, food shortages, etc. Here in Indonesia there will be - I predict - uprisings, like in 1998. The people will then blame certain groups for these problems. One should be prepared for that. Better be prepared 'yesterday' then tomorrow, because tipping points for changes are not gradually, but sudden changes to the extreme.

Uprisings because of what? We get enough demos anyway. When does a demo turn into an uprising and what could cause it? I would actually say a military coup is more likely than an people's uprising (and even then it is very unlikely).

 

[Samoerai]

.. the city and the consequent increased levels of flooding. Already there are areas where it seems they will flood with any downfall of rain. Any ideas as to how this is meant to pan out and what contingency plans there are to deal with this?

Jakarta lies on soft layers of sand and clay. If you pump out more groundwater than naturally flows in, the water pressure will decrease and the clay layers in particular will collapse. Large parts of Jakarta have thus fallen below sea level.
The city is a bathtub. Rivers run through it, but they can no longer discharge their own water into the sea because the sea level is too high. So the water has to be pumped out. Not the sea, but the city is now the drain, which entails enormous pollution.
In 2019, the Indonesian government decided to build a new capital on the island of Kalimantan. Life in Jakarta had become too unsafe because of the rising water. So, this decision is a BIG sign for people to move out of Jakarta. But, as you know ... people are ... like ostriches, sticking their heads in the sand. Don't want to deal with the emerging danger.

 

[Samoerai]

the emerging danger

This danger is emerging. Not if, but when ...

And if you ask people 'when?' then they will answer 'Sometime in the next 20 years and then I'll see what to do'. That is 'linear thinking'. It is difficult for people to think in exponential extrapolation.

Example: If I pour a drop of water into a pool and then double the number of drops every second. What happens, one second later when the pool is half full, one seconde before 12 o'clock?

Answer: at 12 o'clock the pool will be full.

My point here is. All seems calm, one second before 12 o'clock. The swimming pool is just half full. The next second the pool is flooded. That's the 'tipping point' I mentioned the post before.

 

[harryopal1]

".....

It is difficult for people to think in exponential extrapolation....."

Fair crack of the whip. "... exponential extrapolation....."? Please remember that many of the forum members, like myself, are only semi literate, can barely remember their 12 times table and struggle to work out what milliards and trillions of Rupiah mean as to how much I would have to pay in dollars. (Not that I am ever likely to spend a milliard, trillion or billiards - although I do remember a bit about billiards from my wayward youth) and I certainly have no understanding of algebra.

"exponential extrapolation....." I had to use Bard AI to for that one.

"Exponential extrapolation is a mathematical technique used to predict future values of a variable based on its past values. It is based on the assumption that the variable is growing or shrinking at an exponential rate. This means that the variable is increasing or decreasing by a constant percentage over time." etc.

 

[Samoerai]

Fair crack of the whip. "... exponential extrapolation....."? Please remember that many of the forum members, like myself, are only semi literate, can barely remember their 12 times table and struggle to work out what milliards and trillions of Rupiah mean as to how much I would have to pay in dollars. (Not that I am ever likely to spend a milliard, trillion or billiards - although I do remember a bit about billiards from my wayward youth) and I certainly have no understanding of algebra.

"exponential extrapolation....." I had to use Bard AI to for that one.

"Exponential extrapolation is a mathematical technique used to predict future values of a variable based on its past values. It is based on the assumption that the variable is growing or shrinking at an exponential rate. This means that the variable is increasing or decreasing by a constant percentage over time." etc.
View attachment 3118

I understand ... exponential growth is like we experienced with Covid-19 pandemic. All seems calm in the first couple of months ... and then ... like in Italy ... all hospitals are flooded with sick people in the next month.

 

[Pak Tani]

When one looks back at the period of industrialization as new machinery replaced vast numbers of people in the workplace it is clear that the benefits of increased efficiency and profit to factory owners coincided with a complete lack of preparation by most governments as poverty and unemployment created enormous social and humanitarian problems.

But look at us now, less poverty than ever before, efficient large-scale production driving prices of products down to the extent that 'poor people' can buy a smartphone. Famine is caused mainly by war and logistics not by a lack of production. Obesity is a bigger problem than lack of food.
I think we are doing alright with all this new machinery. Who knows what AI can further improve?
Maybe I am just being optimistic.
I see no evidence for the sea level to rise suddenly. It rises slowly and it will keep doing so as polar caps are melting. With an increase in the global temperature there will be more extreme weather, so more spells of drought and storms. This will likely cause more flooding and forest fires. However, with the continuously improving state of technology, we are able to protect against (warn people beforehand) and mitigate these problems. Rivers can be deepened, dikes can be built and landscapes can be altered in some instances to prevent catastrophes. I see challenges but there are solutions for many of these problems.
Except for bathtub city Jakarta, haha.

 

[harryopal1]

But look at us now, less poverty than ever before, efficient large-scale production driving prices of products down to the extent that 'poor people' can buy a smartphone. Famine is caused mainly by war and logistics not by a lack of production. Obesity is a bigger problem than lack of food.
I think we are doing alright with all this new machinery. Who knows what AI can further improve?
Maybe I am just being optimistic.
I see no evidence for the sea level to rise suddenly. It rises slowly and it will keep doing so as polar caps are melting. With an increase in the global temperature there will be more extreme weather, so more spells of drought and storms. This will likely cause more flooding and forest fires. However, with the continuously improving state of technology, we are able to protect against (warn people beforehand) and mitigate these problems. Rivers can be deepened, dikes can be built and landscapes can be altered in some instances to prevent catastrophes. I see challenges but there are solutions for many of these problems.
Except for bathtub city Jakarta, haha.

Worldwide we have the capacity to deal with most of the problems that technological and social upheavals might throw up but few countries work in a coherent manner. The timeless competition and struggle between vested interests and the power of lobbying groups tends to negate altruistic socialist programs that logic might suggests as necessary to alleviate the position of people suddenly rendered unemployed and perhaps unemployable. In the best of all possible worlds, yes, nothing to worry about. But most of us don't live in the best of all possible worlds. We are surrounded by greed, avarice, corruption and wealthy and privileged people who certainly do not want to surrender any of their advantages to help undeserving poor.

 

[Helpful Herbert]

I remember an article 15 years ago saying that Jakarta traffic would be completely gridlocked by 2014. (that was based on extrapolation). Whereas if I compare, now in 2023, there seems to be less traffic in Jakarta than there was 10 years ago. I wouldn't say there are more floods either.

 

[Bob]

This danger is emerging. Not if, but when ...

And if you ask people 'when?' then they will answer 'Sometime in the next 20 years and then I'll see what to do'. That is 'linear thinking'. It is difficult for people to think in exponential extrapolation.

Example: If I pour a drop of water into a pool and then double the number of drops every second. What happens, one second later when the pool is half full, one seconde before 12 o'clock?

Answer: at 12 o'clock the pool will be full.

My point here is. All seems calm, one second before 12 o'clock. The swimming pool is just half full. The next second the pool is flooded. That's the 'tipping point' I mentioned the post before.

What environmental problem is worsening exponentially?
In your example of water in the pool, it wouldn't go from half full to full in a second.

 

[harryopal1]

Samoerai's maths are correct even if the physics are improbable.

 

[harryopal1]

It is like the story of the man who saves the life of a king who then offers to fufil any wish the man might make. The man places a grain of rice before the king and says, please double that and then repeat the procedure 50 times. The King is amazed and readily agrees. The man is then to receive - 1 = 1,125,899,906,842,624 grains of wheat, equivalent to 24,821,836,931 tons. The king cannot fufil his promise and has to surrender his kingdom.