First jab done

dafluff

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...meaning the chance to have adverse effects is 1:1.000.000.
The chance to die in an airplane accident is 1:5.000.000-1:10.000.000, and you would always choose Garuda over Lion Air, everything else equal.
What are the chances of being in an airplane accident if you don't get on an airplane?
 

centurion

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"...everything else equal."
The metaphor means: if you have a choice of several vaccines and some have adverse effects, will choose the one without adverse effects.
 

nd_eric_77

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...meaning the chance to have adverse effects is 1:1.000.000.
The chance to die in an airplane accident is 1:5.000.000-1:10.000.000, and you would always choose Garuda over Lion Air, everything else equal.
I will be in the US for two weeks. I can either get half-vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, or I can get fully vaccinated with J & J (assuming the "pause" is lifted by then). Of note regarding the number of clotting reactions, none of them have been in men. Y-chromosome to the rescue! (joking, in case it is not obvious)
 

dafluff

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"...everything else equal."
The metaphor means: if you have a choice of several vaccines and some have adverse effects, will choose the one without adverse effects.

But you are still making a false analogy. You don't take vaccines because you feel like it. You take it because the alternative is worse. Also, vaccines are scarce.

So to be correct, your analogy should be, your chance of being in an accident is 1:5,000,000 flying Lion, 1:10,000,000 flying Garuda, but 1:500,000 if you don't fly at all, and there are limited flights. So logically, you would take the first available flight.
 

centurion

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But you are still making a false analogy. You don't take vaccines because you feel like it. You take it because the alternative is worse. Also, vaccines are scarce.

So to be correct, your analogy should be, your chance of being in an accident is 1:5,000,000 flying Lion, 1:10,000,000 flying Garuda, but 1:500,000 if you don't fly at all, and there are limited flights. So logically, you would take the first available flight.
In the US there are enough vaccines and JJ is a US vaccine. So If I am in the US and I had to choose between JJ and others, will choose others. If I am in Indonesia as I am, I cannot choose anything as there are no vaccines.

And btw, blood clothes were at the women in their late 30s-40s meaning the odds of getting clots are (if true) probably 10 - 20 times higher than 1:1.000.000 in that population.

News used an analogy about having chances of getting killed in a car accident and getting blood clots. I just applied that to the airline industry. Of course, if you do not go into a car, there will be no accident.
And good luck flying Lion.
 

dafluff

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And btw, blood clothes were at the women in their late 30s-40s meaning the odds of getting clots are (if true) probably 10 - 20 times higher than 1:1.000.000 in that population.
And much lower outside that population.
 

gemima

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I will be in the US for two weeks. I can either get half-vaccinated with Pfizer or Moderna, or I can get fully vaccinated with J & J (assuming the "pause" is lifted by then). Of note regarding the number of clotting reactions, none of them have been in men. Y-chromosome to the rescue! (joking, in case it is not obvious)
That would depend on who they rolled out the 7 million J&J doses to already.
The AZ issues seem to be mostly women possibly due to the early vaccination of healthcare workers who are overwhelmingly female. But I have no idea who got the first J&J shots!
 

gemima

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In the US there are enough vaccines and JJ is a US vaccine. So If I am in the US and I had to choose between JJ and others, will choose others. If I am in Indonesia as I am, I cannot choose anything as there are no vaccines.

And btw, blood clothes were at the women in their late 30s-40s meaning the odds of getting clots are (if true) probably 10 - 20 times higher than 1:1.000.000 in that population.

News used an analogy about having chances of getting killed in a car accident and getting blood clots. I just applied that to the airline industry. Of course, if you do not go into a car, there will be no accident.
And good luck flying Lion.
I would happily take a J&J/ AZ right now (and I'm a woman in my 30s) BUT I actually agree with the precautionary principle in the vaccine rollout.
Vaccines in at-risk groups clearly have a benefit but the fact is that on average younger people will be fine if they catch covid; they are being vaccinated to protect society as a whole - to reach herd immunity and to protect the unusual young ones who do get very sick from it.

The blood clots in the J&J and AZ cases are incredibly rare and unusual but very deadly (hopefully with a bit of research now during the pause they can figure out how to spot it before someone dies/ figure out who is really at risk - there are signs they are figuring it out, last week someone was successfully treated for this).
If you are forcing younger people to have the vaccine (for example if you work in healthcare you HAVE to take it - some countries will make it compulsory - travel will probably make it compulsory too) then you are basically saying that 1 in 1 million (or whatever the stat is) will die and that's okay, making the judgment that it's worth the risk. There are a few families already where a young woman has died - where if they had not got the vaccine they would probably be alive now. This is awful for those families (and the individual who is dead now).

It's a difficult balance to make and I think the public health specialists are better informed than us keyboard warriors online.

I am pro-vaccine in case anyone reads this and thinks I'm against those vaccines! I just think a lot of people miss the nuance in this.
 

dafluff

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So if you self-identify as a woman in the late 30s-late 40s would you take JJ or Pfizer?

I won't speak for a group of people that I am not part of, obviously. However, the point that I was trying to make is that if indeed the vaccine is more dangerous in one group of people, and much less so in another group, then these should be focused on the latter group, while other vaccines used for the former.

Maybe the US has enough vaccines, with about 40% having received their first dose, and a good portion of the rest are probably anti-Vaxers, in which case they should send those vaccines elsewhere.
 

fastpitch17

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I won't speak for a group of people that I am not part of, obviously. However, the point that I was trying to make is that if indeed the vaccine is more dangerous in one group of people, and much less so in another group, then these should be focused on the latter group, while other vaccines used for the former.

Maybe the US has enough vaccines, with about 40% having received their first dose, and a good portion of the rest are probably anti-Vaxers, in which case they should send those vaccines elsewhere.
I doubt that will happen anytime soon. While there are certainly people that are still getting the first dose being that it was just opened up for all ages in every state, they still feel they can reach many of the anti-vaxers. So, they will sit on a lot and may, just may give some up. Those getting their 2nd dose in the next few weeks should bring the total population to over 50%. They want 70 really bad since that is the heard immunity number they need.
 

HappyMan

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I follow the new science. I learned. I am a better person now.
Good for you, mate. Guess I'm ignorant enough not to know what I am ignorant of. You could be joking or serious and I'd have no clue.

Just to be clear, I'm indifferent to people choosing pronouns. I'm much more concerned about assholes who go out of their way to give ““pronoun choosers“ shit. How could all those guys I used to know who loved to tell each other to "man the fuck up" be so scared of a person with long hair and testes? Why can't they "man the fuck up" and move on with thier day instead of harassing Frances? It's a friggin conundrum.

On the other hand, science is science. It would be problematic if someone didn't understand that medicine is more concerned with the y in your chromosome than the one you use to spell Billie.

Last time I went back to the states (better part of a decade ago) my brother told me off for becoming a rude bastard. I failed to notice that there was a lady behind me in line at the elevator and so didn't let her on first (not elderly or pregnant or even a full elevator). I also failed to hold the building door for the lady ten feet behind me when we left. I probably would have done those things in the distant past, but I was really surprised to be told I had failed to do them. It just wasn't even on my radar. I don't like the idea of being a jerk on accident.
 

centurion

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Good for you, mate. Guess I'm ignorant enough not to know what I am ignorant of. You could be joking or serious and I'd have no clue.

Just to be clear, I'm indifferent to people choosing pronouns. I'm much more concerned about assholes who go out of their way to give ““pronoun choosers“ shit. How could all those guys I used to know who loved to tell each other to "man the fuck up" be so scared of a person with long hair and testes? Why can't they "man the fuck up" and move on with thier day instead of harassing Frances? It's a friggin conundrum.

On the other hand, science is science. It would be problematic if someone didn't understand that medicine is more concerned with the y in your chromosome than the one you use to spell Billie.

Last time I went back to the states (better part of a decade ago) my brother told me off for becoming a rude bastard. I failed to notice that there was a lady behind me in line at the elevator and so didn't let her on first (not elderly or pregnant or even a full elevator). I also failed to hold the building door for the lady ten feet behind me when we left. I probably would have done those things in the distant past, but I was really surprised to be told I had failed to do them. It just wasn't even on my radar. I don't like the idea of being a jerk on accident.
When I found out that humans with 9-inch penises could be actually women, I understood how deep my ignorance was. Just trying to adapt.
 

yantiharun1

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When I got my Sinovac, the recommendation was 2 weeks. Then, they started texting everyone and saying to wait another two weeks. The data entry person had misread my handwriting, hence they had the wrong handphone number for me, and then when I sent a WhatsApp message to the Puskesmas, the representative told me to come in on my original appointment date. Hence, my two Sinovac shots were on the 15th and 29th of March.
All that said, when I visit family in the US in June, I hope to get a J&J jab as a "booster" since I do not have a high level of trust in the transparency of the development process for the Sinovac shots. Also, the WHO does not recognize Sinovac yet, hence it may not be useful when countries start opening up to vaccinated travelers.
Do you still need to be quarantined to enter US even after you've had the vaccine and PCR?
 

Jaime C

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My wife has had pretty a strong reaction to her second Pfizer shot.

A day after the shot, she had pretty bad body pain, then running a fever over 102f.

On day two after feeling a bit better in the morning, mid afternoon she got serious chills, and uncontrolled shaking, high fever (103f+), and was even hyperventilating for a bit.

Pretty scary. We called our insurance nurses line, and just got a recommendation to keep resting, increase the dosage of Ibuprofen, etc. Her temperature started coming down. Her shaking lasted for a bit under an hour.

She seems much better now.

Strangely, I had the exact same symptoms in early January, 2020 while Ibu was in Indonesia during Christmas school break.
 

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