DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[R Cameron]

@Balifrog I fully agree. Total deaths compared to past data will be our most accurate count, especially in less developed countries that have less reliable testing data for a variety of medical, economic, government, and social reasons.

Increase in total death charted against average temperature and/or average daylight hours over the past few months would make a very interesting graph. It would likely show that heat slows down the virus (on surfaces and in the air) and may show indirectly that vitamin D helps outcomes as discussed above.

I have found total death data difficult to find though (by country, by Indonesian province, by US state).

 

[R Cameron]

Countries beating Covid-19 — EndCoronavirus.org

See which countries are winning, nearly there, or need action, when it comes to COVID-19.

www.endcoronavirus.org

An interesting website showing which countries have steep drop off in cases, versus those that are level or increasing.

 

[Balifrog]

@Balifrog I fully agree. Total deaths compared to past data will be our most accurate count, especially in less developed countries that have less reliable testing data for a variety of medical, economic, government, and social reasons.

Increase in total death charted against average temperature and/or average daylight hours over the past few months would make a very interesting graph. It would likely show that heat slows down the virus (on surfaces and in the air) and may show indirectly that vitamin D helps outcomes as discussed above.

I have found total death data difficult to find though (by country, by Indonesian province, by US state).

French INSEE has very detailed charts,specially updated weekly during this crisis :

Nombre de décès quotidiens par département | Insee

www.insee.fr

They also compare the numbers with the same periods (week/months) of previous years.

The U.K.'s O.N.S. has some as well, but less detailed :

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the latest weeks.

www.ons.gov.uk

Note that both are National Statistics organisations and reliable for the global deaths.
Both have the data available to download in Excel form for anybody who wants to have a deeper look.

I suppose every 1st world country has the equivalent organisation, and the GLOBAL death numbers from those are IMO the only ones to use.

 

[Wisnu]

Total funeral in Jakarta from 2010 until todate.

Dinas Pertamanan dan Hutan Kota Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Dinas Pertamanan dan Hutan Kota Provinsi DKI Jakarta

pertamananpemakaman.jakarta.go.id

 

[harryopal1]

So, what do we conclude from those graphs?

 

[R Cameron]

There appears to have been about 40% more burials in Jakarta in March/April this year than most previous years, and about 30% more than the prior highest ever (March 2016). This adds up to about 3000 additional deaths in Jakarta, while the official Covid deaths for the whole of Indonesia is just under 1000.

 

[dannyboy]

Impossible to do RELIABLE comparisons IMO :
Data collection is dubious in many countries
Labelling of deaths as Covid related is dubious in many countries
Even among the 1st class western countries the definition on what constitutes death due to C19 is not harmonized. Even EU countries all count differently (see Belgium apparently horrific numbers, mainly due to the counting method).
Only the "excess" global deaths compared to the same periods in the past years are reliable indicators.

even with this, you got to take into account that the partial/full lockdown implemented would decrease the number of non-covid related deaths. This means that the 'excess' death is something more than just the difference between the two averages.

 

[Balifrog]

even with this, you got to take into account that the partial/full lockdown implemented would decrease the number of non-covid related deaths. This means that the 'excess' death is something more than just the difference between the two averages.

On my above link :

Evolution (variation) per age sector, and sex of cumulated deaths for the period 01/03 to 20/04 - 2020 vs 2019

You can clearly see the age risk with a big evolution is 65+, and men are more at risk than women. Again the man / woman thing should be compared with the demographics in this age range.
Note also the negative variationfor the 0-24 age range. For the 25-49 age range a slightly negative for females and slightly positive for males.
Interesting info, but to be analyzed deeper. Traffic accident deaths reduction sure has an impact, but they are under 10/day in France, work accident maybe a few, and crime VERY few.



Note from the INSEE concerning the age range (translated by Google)

“Before age 65, mortality is very close in 2019 and 2020 (7% more deaths in the period in 2020 compared to 2019) with however different trends by age group and gender: mortality decreases by 18% among those under 25 years of age, particularly among young men (-24%), probably due to containment measures that can affect other causes of death, including accidental death; and 49 and increases by 12% between the age of 50 and 64 (slightly more for women than for men).

Second, the increase in the number of deaths is all the greater as age increases: it is 22% between 65 and 74 years, 31% between 75 and 84 years and 33% beyond. For each of these age groups, the increase is much greater for men than for women. Over the age of 65, the increase in mortality is 33% for men compared to 28% for women.”

 

[dafluff]

There appears to have been about 40% more burials in Jakarta in March/April this year than most previous years, and about 30% more than the prior highest ever (March 2016). This adds up to about 3000 additional deaths in Jakarta, while the official Covid deaths for the whole of Indonesia is just under 1000.

Someone pointed out that the increase may also have been due to movement restrictions, but not necessarily Covid-19; meaning people that normally would have been taken out to Jabar/Banten to be buried are now buried in Jakarta proper.

Another, possibly better, indicator is burials with Covid-19 protocols, which since March 2nd there are about 1,800. Now of course not all those are Covid-19 deaths, but then not all Covid-19 deaths are burials, so it probably comes out a wash.

 

[R Cameron]

Someone pointed out that the increase may also have been due to movement restrictions, but not necessarily Covid-19; meaning people that normally would have been taken out to Jabar/Banten to be buried are now buried in Jakarta proper.

Yes, I wonder about that, getting national statistics, or the whole of Java, would be helpful. Also, perhaps reporting of burials in previous years was less rigorous and many happened without documentation.

Regardless, I'm convinced of two things; one, that Indonesia's official numbers are far below reality, and two, that (worldwide) we won't get good numbers for a year or more.

 

[harryopal1]

This post about the US response to the Corona virus makes for a rather startling summary. Well, worth a look.

 

[nardo]

Yes I just saw a vitamin D link..https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-vitamin-d-role-covid-mortality.amp

 

[dafluff]

Lots of pictures floating around on Twitter about the crowd at Sarinah's McDonald's in Jakarta yesterday. The store, which was McDonald's first outlet in Indonesia, is closing down for good.

But hardly a reason to go have a candle light vigil for it...I don't get it. This stuff would've been stupid even before Covid19...

 

[Jaime C]

At least I see a lot of masks. I don’t like big crowds at the best of times.

 

[vocalneal]

I guess if Sarinah's McDonald's is your local one then yes lament its closing. I used to have Breakfast Wrap at McD's in Karawang almost everyday while sitting watching the world go by.
Still miss it now. McD's in Thailand is mostly mall based, doesn't have Breakfast Wrap or outdoor seating.

 

[Balifrog]

I guess if Sarinah's McDonald's is your local one then yes lament its closing. I used to have Breakfast Wrap at McD's in Karawang almost everyday while sitting watching the world go by.
Still miss it now. McD's in Thailand is mostly mall based, doesn't have Breakfast Wrap or outdoor seating.

Missing Mc Do ?
My God ....... They could all close, KFC and similar as well as far I am concerned.
Would probably improve the world's eating habits as well as health.

 

[Helpful Herbert]

One of the big advantages of this lockdown and moving out from Jakarta to our kampung is that the kids no longer get McD and KFC delivery, they get kampung chicken and kampung rice, which must be healthier.

 

[centurion]

Evidence becoming quite compelling that vitamin D is protecting against Covid 19, according to prof Manson from Harvard University. Go and get sun!

 

[harryopal1]

It seems worldwide Covid has found us short when it comes to our great "scientific advances" which make us so superior to our forebears. We plough onwards desperately with vaccine research while some medical scientists warn some vaccines can damage our lungs and leave us worse off.
We set up for massive quick screening with blood tests which it seems are very unreliable.
Mass spraying of dubious benefits.
Rush into using anti malarial drugs which can have major deleterious effects.
Isolate people in ships and hospitals with air conditioning that seem likely to expose all the isolated to the virus.
In the absence of certain measures it seems we will try anything. A church offering members prayer and bleach to be imbibed..
We may emerge with a little humility or take the rather more satisfying path of pointing fingers and finding blame as in "bloody Chinese" insults, assaults and demands of China paying compensation.
There may be light at the end of the tunnel.... but which tunnel.
Ahh well, the Australian football league may ... perhaps... might be... subject to developments,,,, resume the Aussie rules season mid June. Hooray. I pray for that and feel it would be better than blood tests, spraying, dangerous medicines and dubious vaccines.
So what are the non believers in Australian rules football looking at to lift their spirits?

 

[Nimbus]

The McDonald’s at Sarinah Thamrin was iconic, because it was the first one in Indonesia. I remember it opened when I was in high school, and it was a big deal. The feeling was that we (Indonesia) had arrived. We weren’t a backwater anymore, we had a McD’s!

This was before Jakarta had a mall every other kilometer, so Sarinah was still considered upper class shopping. It was even more special because it was one of the very few places with 24 hour operation. After everything was closed, we could always go there for a night cap. Back then we still had one day weekend, so it was a popular hang out place on Saturday evening all the way into Sunday morning.

My generation will remember it fondly as an icon from a bygone era. I understand people wanting to see it for the last time, to say goodbye to their youth.