DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

Bad_azz

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Indeed. I am starting to wonder when travel in and out of Indonesia will be possible again without restrictions like vaccine requirements, quarantine or tests:
  • by 31 December 2021
  • by 31 December 2022
  • by 31 December 2025
  • by 31 December 2030
  • never
I think once implemented that they are here to stay, its a rare govt that implements temporary bureaucracy.
What do they have to lose by keeping this control measure in place?
They all play on the fears of the masses so that the masses are concordant with control measures- politics 101, & has been for eons.
 

dafluff

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It is an interesting statistical quirk that the Sinovac shots are more effective at preventing ICU admission than at preventing death.

Example: Unvaccinated group A has 10,000 people, Vaccinated group B has 10,000 people. Both groups are roughly the same composition.

Then, 1,000 of group A get sick, as do 330 of group B. This is 67% effective in preventing symptoms.

100 people from A but only 11 people from B end up in ICU, so 89% in preventing ICU admission.

Then 20 from group A in ICU die, as do 4 in group B, which is 80% in preventing death.

As a percentage of the ICU group, more people died in group B, but as a nominal quantity, they are lower. It kinda makes sense too: if you still end up in ICU after being fully vaccinated, there is a chance that your immune system may be compromised, etc, which worsens your outlook.

In general, the vaccinated population in Chile skews older as naturally they were prioritized for vaccination. About 20% of their population has received 2 shots.
 

dafluff

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What do they have to lose by keeping this control measure in place?

Reduction in competitiveness, business travel, and tourism compared to other countries that do not require such measures, provided the situation is safe to do so.
 

Bad_azz

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Reduction in competitiveness, business travel, and tourism compared to other countries that do not require such measures, provided the situation is safe to do so.
Do you honestly think that? The opposite could be said re business travel & tourism- people might prefer to go to places that have stricter measures in place for security.
Think about Yellow fever injections & other compulsory vaccines many places have them & restrict travel in & out of the area if one isn't vaccinated.
I just don't think it is a big deal, they will do whatever they choose to do no matter the country.
Mere plebs will have no say in it... this isn't a rpg. It is real life & the politicians often shaft the public they are supposed to be representing. The often do so in a couple of steps, - leak out the thing that will cause unrest well ahead of schedule, people revolt/protest/rebel/moan... it all goes quiet again politicians slide the measures into place, quietly, because they can because they already 'informed' us they were going to do so.
I have seen this played out so many times- 1 notable time was the fuel rises in the UK, back in the 90s- fuel was rationed, people protested, people went quiet, fuel prices were even higher than the govt had proposed a couple of months later.
 

Bad_azz

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Do you honestly think that? The opposite could be said re business travel & tourism- people might prefer to go to places that have stricter measures in place for security.
Think about Yellow fever injections & other compulsory vaccines many places have them & restrict travel in & out of the area if one isn't vaccinated.
I just don't think it is a big deal, they will do whatever they choose to do no matter the country.
Mere plebs will have no say in it... this isn't a rpg. It is real life & the politicians often shaft the public they are supposed to be representing. The often do so in a couple of steps, - leak out the thing that will cause unrest well ahead of schedule, people revolt/protest/rebel/moan... it all goes quiet again politicians slide the measures into place, quietly, because they can because they already 'informed' us they were going to do so.
I have seen this played out so many times- 1 notable time was the fuel rises in the UK, back in the 90s- fuel was rationed, people protested, people went quiet, fuel prices were even higher than the govt had proposed a couple of months later.
Gosh I sound so cynical & jaded.
I guess its time for me to take an interest in knitting or something equally innocuous :D
 

dafluff

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Do you honestly think that? The opposite could be said re business travel & tourism- people might prefer to go to places that have stricter measures in place for security.
Think about Yellow fever injections & other compulsory vaccines many places have them & restrict travel in & out of the area if one isn't vaccinated.
I just don't think it is a big deal, they will do whatever they choose to do no matter the country.
Mere plebs will have no say in it... this isn't a rpg. It is real life & the politicians often shaft the public they are supposed to be representing. The often do so in a couple of steps, - leak out the thing that will cause unrest well ahead of schedule, people revolt/protest/rebel/moan... it all goes quiet again politicians slide the measures into place, quietly, because they can because they already 'informed' us they were going to do so.
I have seen this played out so many times- 1 notable time was the fuel rises in the UK, back in the 90s- fuel was rationed, people protested, people went quiet, fuel prices were even higher than the govt had proposed a couple of months later.

I think so. Indonesia is DESPERATE to re-open to normalcy. Hopefully, when they do so, it is actually safe to do so.
 

scouser59

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Indonesia may open for tourism at some point ,but will tourists be allowed to travel here by their home countries ,I doubt it .
Lets face it corona is hardly under control here ,inoculations are at a very low level , and generally sinovac with a very low efficacy .

Let us not speak about any future virulent mutations which may appear .
 

Helpful Herbert

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I checked the vaccination requirements for entering Iceland for tourists. It is interesting that they only recognise 4 vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, Astra Zeneca. They do not recognise Chinese or Russian vaccines. Also the vaccine certificate has to have a certified translation into English. There isn't a time limit on how long ago the vaccination was.

This could be a kind of "us and them" situation, with the developing world who use the less popular vaccines excluded over time from travelling to richer countries.
I also wonder how mutations will be dealt with, if one turns up that is proven to evade certain vaccines. It could get very complicated to police that.
 

yantiharun1

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I checked the vaccination requirements for entering Iceland for tourists. It is interesting that they only recognise 4 vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, Astra Zeneca. They do not recognise Chinese or Russian vaccines. Also the vaccine certificate has to have a certified translation into English. There isn't a time limit on how long ago the vaccination was.

This could be a kind of "us and them" situation, with the developing world who use the less popular vaccines excluded over time from travelling to richer countries.
I also wonder how mutations will be dealt with, if one turns up that is proven to evade certain vaccines. It could get very complicated to police that.
The Sinovac vaccine certificate is in Indonesian, although it has a bar code if that makes any difference.
 

dafluff

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I checked the vaccination requirements for entering Iceland for tourists. It is interesting that they only recognise 4 vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, Astra Zeneca. They do not recognise Chinese or Russian vaccines. Also the vaccine certificate has to have a certified translation into English. There isn't a time limit on how long ago the vaccination was.

This could be a kind of "us and them" situation, with the developing world who use the less popular vaccines excluded over time from travelling to richer countries.
I also wonder how mutations will be dealt with, if one turns up that is proven to evade certain vaccines. It could get very complicated to police that.

The best "strategy" still remains to get whatever vaccine is available. Then later when vaccine supplies have caught up, you can boost with another brand if you want.

Many countries now play vaccine politics, and some have correctly pointed out that Chinese and Russian vaccine researchers were not very forthcoming with the data. But we now have real-life epidemic data for Sinovac from Chile, which is encouraging. Also with maybe 50 million doses delivered, it is also clearly safe.
 

dafluff

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Let me elaborate a bit on why I think the Sinovac data from Chile is encouraging. Some have pointed out that the efficacy is not as high as the mRNA vaccines, or that it is not 100% at preventing death/severe cases. But that is comparing apples to oranges.

The Chile data is collected from a very different demographic than the trial data of the mRNA vaccines:

1. It has a much larger sample size.
2. It skews much more towards older people (and other high-risk categories) since those were the priority for vaccination in Chile. The Pfizer vaccine drops to 58% efficacy for people 70+ years old, for example. Moderna drops to 86% efficacy for people 65+.
3. It was collected in February and March after the P1 variant has been spreading in neighboring Brazil. The initial efficacy data we use for Pfizer and Moderna are based on clinical trials from Sept/Oct last year, before Brazil (P1) variant and South African variant were mutated.

Finally, if you are in Indonesia, there is a good chance you will not have access to Pfizer/Moderna or any other vaccine that requires (deep) freezing for a long time, if ever. The cold chain here struggles to handle Paddle Pops, never mind vaccines that require -25C or lower.
 

nd_eric_77

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The best "strategy" still remains to get whatever vaccine is available. Then later when vaccine supplies have caught up, you can boost with another brand if you want.

Many countries now play vaccine politics, and some have correctly pointed out that Chinese and Russian vaccine researchers were not very forthcoming with the data. But we now have real-life epidemic data for Sinovac from Chile, which is encouraging. Also with maybe 50 million doses delivered, it is also clearly safe.
This is my strategy in a nutshell. Having gotten both Sinovac shots, I will most likely get the J&J shot in the US in June. It will probably be a good immune booster and will be considered acceptable for countries who are skeptical of Sinovac with regards to tourists.
 

fastpitch17

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Got our 2nd Sinovac shots yesterday. 24 hours now, no adverse effects besides sore arms. Let's face it, maybe Sinovac doesn't measure up in effectivness for not catching covid as some if the others but has cone our by a few qualified experts as being as good as the others in making it so you do not get as ill as one normally does. We didn't get tge shots thinking they would ensure not getting covid. None of tge vaccines can really iffer that. We got them in case we do happen to come in contact with it.

The thing to worry about is if they ever get the Indonesian developed vaccine out. I would suggest everyone get vaccinated before that happens so you do not have to get that one.
 

Helpful Herbert

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So after 4 months or so of vaccinations, the total number of people who have received both doses is officially 6,029,941 (about 2.2% of the country). At that rate, to get to 80% herd immunity will take ......... 12 years:wall: (by which time the immunity would have worn off anyway)
 

dafluff

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More data on vaccine effectiveness, including Sinovac in Chile.

Chiled.jpg


 

ChrisTex

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Just back from Ciputra at Lotte Ave and having my second vaccine. This time went quicker as there wasn't many people there. It seemed like I was playing musical chairs as everything from the registration to getting the jab went rather quickly. The longest part of the process was the 30 minute observation. It took less than a hour from the time we arrived to the time we left.

On a side note, the two teachers who I was with the first time, were able to get their second jab as well. One of them who didn't get a sms found out it was due to someone putting the wrong phone number in.
 

nd_eric_77

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On a side note, the two teachers who I was with the first time, were able to get their second jab as well. One of them who didn't get a sms found out it was due to someone putting the wrong phone number in.
This is becoming a recurring theme!
 

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