DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[R Cameron]

This would apply to the Sinovac vaccines and the other Chinese ones being used here.

Effectiveness of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Chile​

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107715?query=infectious-disease

That's a great dataset, drawing from 10 million people. Here is my summary of their findings:

	Partially Vaccinated	Fully Vaccinated	Age 60+ Fully Vaxxed
Prevention of disease	15.5%	65.9%	66.6%
Prevention of hospitalization	37.4%	87.5%	85.3%
Prevention of ICU admission	44.7%	90.3%	89.2%
Prevention of death	45.7%	86.3%	86.5%

 

[El_Goretto]

This would apply to the Sinovac vaccines and the other Chinese ones being used here.

Effectiveness of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Chile​

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2107715?query=infectious-disease

I couldn't find any mention of against which variant the effectiveness was measured. Any idea?

 

[El_Goretto]

I couldn't find any mention of against which variant the effectiveness was measured. Any idea?

Nvm, found it in @dafluff's quote in the other thread. Seems there is little difference in effectiveness between alpha and delta variants.

 

[dafluff]

Nvm, found it in @dafluff's quote in the other thread. Seems there is little difference in effectiveness between alpha and delta variants.

The Sinovac Chile study doesn't mention variants, however, since most of the data was obtained before Delta became widespread, I think mostly Delta was not included in those numbers.

 

[fastpitch17]

Move over Delta but don't go away.

Should the Lambda Variant Worry You? Not if You’re Vaccinated​

Should the Lambda Variant Worry You? Not if You're Vaccinated.

Even as the world deals with damage from the Delta version of Covid-19, the Lambda variant has raised concern with its resistance to antibodies.

www.barrons.com

Guess we all get to update our greek alphabet long forgotten.

 

[Hawk256]

What terrible mortality rates. Vaccinated or not the numbers are way too high and I think we are all aware the COVID death rates here are probably underreported.

"The mortality rate of those who were not vaccinated was 15.5 percent compared with 4.1 percent for those who had received two shots of either the Sinovac or AstraZeneca vaccine, according to data from state hospitals and almost 68,000 patients in Jakarta from May to July."

COVID deaths more than three times higher for the unvaccinated in Indonesia - National - The Jakarta Post

The mortality rate of those who were not vaccinated was 15.5 percent compared with 4.1 percent for those who had received two shots of either the Sinovac or AstraZeneca vaccine, according to data from state hospitals and almost 68,000 patients in Jakarta from May to July.

www.thejakartapost.com

 

[R Cameron]

What terrible mortality rates. Vaccinated or not the numbers are way too high and I think we are all aware the COVID death rates here are probably underreported.

"The mortality rate of those who were not vaccinated was 15.5 percent compared with 4.1 percent for those who had received two shots of either the Sinovac or AstraZeneca vaccine, according to data from state hospitals and almost 68,000 patients in Jakarta from May to July."

It's very important to recognize that those percentages are the deaths among hospitalized patients, not among positive cases. The vaccines greatly reduce the risk of both hospitalization and death, so of those 68,000 patients and the current vaccination rates, it's likely only about 1000 were fully vaccinated (so 41 deaths), and about 67,000 were unvaccinated (10,000+ deaths).

The article continues:

Separately, data from the town of Banyuwangi In East Java, showed that 93 percent of COVID patients who died from March to July were not vaccinated, while 6 percent had received a first dose, and 1 percent had been fully vaccinated. Sinovac and AstraZeneca vaccines were also the vaccines predominately administered in that area.

That is great news for the vaccines.

 

[Balifrog]

The mortality rate of those who were not vaccinated was 15.5 percent

Which is rather coherent with mortality rate in the US before the mass vaccination started (2020).

COVID-19 Hospital Data - In-hospital mortality among confirmed COVID-19 encounters by week

Tabulated data show the percentage of confirmed COVID-19 encounters in which an in-hospital death occurred. Data are presented for each setting (inpatient and ED) and for each week, by age and sex. Additionally, data show the percentage of in-hospital deaths among confirmed COVID-19 discharges...

www.cdc.gov

 

[Hawk256]

It's very important to recognize that those percentages are the deaths among hospitalized patients, not among positive cases.

I guess I didn't realize that once you are hospitalized, your chances of dying increase that much.

 

[fastpitch17]

I guess I didn't realize that once you are hospitalized, your chances of dying increase that much.

Hospitals if they have any room available are only taking the most severe cases. That is why deaths are what they are with the hospitalized. Anything less patients are sent home to take care of themselves or go home on their own because they can not find an available room. Some are even dying in the ambulance going from hospital to hospital trying to find a room. Then, if they die at home and those numbers seem to be a lot, they are not counted in the official reportings.

 

[fastpitch17]

Wife's sister died of Covid, er, diabetes, last night. Was in a hospital for 4 days. Was 9th on the list to move to an ICU but when passed was at number 3. Family was not allowed in the room with her so a lot of video back and forth. Last day could see the rapid decline and it was easily seen the end was near.

Hospital prepared the body and then in the middle of the night they allowed the family to take the body and bury her next to her husband. The hospital did not insist that she be burried in the specified covid cemetery.

Already the family are letting people know that she died if diabetes, not covid. No one she has come in contact with, including her family have been vaccinated or tested. She had people in and out of her home regularly. One daughter in law that tried to look after her when she first got sick is now sick. Just a touch of the flu is what we were told. I have been going crazy telling them they all at least need to be tested. Thick skulls.

Like I said in a previous post, they are dropping like flys here and not being reported as covid. As long as all this family cover up continues, it will remain that way.

 

[Balifrog]

Already the family are letting people know that she died if diabetes, not covid. No one she has come in contact with, including her family have been vaccinated or tested. She had people in and out of her home regularly. One daughter in law that tried to look after her when she first got sick is now sick. Just a touch of the flu is what we were told. I have been going crazy telling them they all at least need to be tested. Thick skulls.

Like I said in a previous post, they are dropping like flys here and not being reported as covid. As long as all this family cover up continues, it will remain that way.

Personally I rather agree with that method...

• No need to create panic and dramatic headlines
• Even if they did testing and tracking of all contacts, they would soon end up with millions of positives, without having the means to isolate them, let alone to medically follow up on them. Again, no need to create additional panic.
• Yes, people will die.
• It would be interesting to have "global deaths" number compared to previous years, I am sure it is recorded somewhere (this is not Yemen..) but not sure it is public ?

P.S. : calling family members "thick skulls" is not very nice....
Most of those people did not have the chance to have a nice western education till 18 or more. My Miss left school at 12. Try to imagine the level of schooling in the 70's / 80's in a remote rural school ....

 

[dafluff]

Unfortunately, the Covid situation in Indonesia is now what many of us were afraid it would be. I'm not sure that this was ever evitable. Once it hits all the villages, there is no longer any tracing or isolation possible. There are just too many people, spread over too much geography. There will be many deaths, and God knows how many of them were preventable.

In the meantime, more evidence shows that Covid is a cardiovascular disease: If you have diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, etc, you should try to get those under control. You should anyway, even if there was no Covid.

 

[Balifrog]

In the meantime, more evidence shows that Covid is a cardiovascular disease: If you have diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol, etc, you should try to get those under control. You should anyway, even if there was no Covid

Agreed with your post.

On the above part the question that we (as individuals and the health authorities) should ask is "how did we get there" ?
I mean, how did we ended up with such an high proportion of people having these health issues ?
And you forgot latent lung cancer on your list. With the number of people smoking in Indonesia, this is sure also a main issue.
But this is another topic.

 

[gemima]

Agreed with your post.

On the above part the question that we (as individuals and the health authorities) should ask is "how did we get there" ?
I mean, how did we ended up with such an high proportion of people having these health issues ?
And you forgot latent lung cancer on your list. With the number of people smoking in Indonesia, this is sure also a main issue.
But this is another topic.

In the history of humanity illness and pandemics are the norm. The healthy long-lived ones were the exceptions to the rule.
We are lucky nowadays to have the benefit of science and medicine to start addressing/managing some of the diseases mentioned. Childhood vaccines have probably made the biggest improvement to longevity overall.
So I don't think its a matter of "how did we get here" for Indonesia. Maybe I could agree to ask "how did we get here" about certain factors such as obesity in westernized parts of society (or indeed the hullabaloo over the covid vaccines).
But overall we are living in the most collectively "healthy" time for humanity overall - but people don't seem to realize this.

 

[Balifrog]

But overall we are living in the most collectively "healthy" time for humanity overall - but people don't seem to realize this.

We live longer because science and medication made progress and makes us last longer.
But the majority sure doesn't live a healthy live.

Junk food, sweet drink, sitting in front of TV or laptop playing games....

And thinking that running 30 min on some machine, with headphones on, watching a.screen is going to make it up ....
Amongst my age people I am one of the very few who.doesn't take any long term medicine, am not overweight, and no comorbidity...

 

[gemima]

We live longer because science and medication made progress and makes us last longer.
But the majority sure doesn't live a healthy live.

Junk food, sweet drink, sitting in front of TV or laptop playing games....

And thinking that running 30 min on some machine, with headphones on, watching a.screen is going to make it up ....
Amongst my age people I am one of the very few who.doesn't take any long term medicine, am not overweight, and no comorbidity...

There are more medical issues now because of the longevity factor. And I agree that more and more people aren't living very healthy lives. The way things are going the human lifespans will start to decrease (due to obesity-linked diseases - I think this has already started in the US). But people are free to live the life they want and eat the food they want. You have a personal freedoms argument against being forced to take a vaccine - they have the same re eating burgers and guzzling coke

 

[harryopal1]

There is a tendency to underrate the importance of improved access to nutritious food, clean water and vastly improved hygiene and sanitary systems when considering public health. Science and medical achievements have contributed but are overrated. What we do not have is comprehensive compilation of the medical blunders and scientific disasters which occur daily around the world. Unnecessary medical procedures, and harmful effects of over prescribed pharmaceuticals where symptoms are addressed by drugs often without attention to underlying causes of ill health. Huge amounts of money thrown at creating pills to overcome obesity.

As much as we have gained, it seems profit and greed combined with massive advertising and promotion of sugar and salt saturated commercial foot and beverage products are setting to turn us into obese, diabetic and basically unhealthier human beings.

The lobbying and corrupting power of the profiteers is enormous. I recall a former Australian prime Minister, Tony Abbott being asked to stop the advertising directed at children to buy toxic food and drink products and his answer was this was a parental responsibility and not for his government to get between parents and children. There are innumerable examples of this kind of corruption but another classic was a former Mexican president with a directorship with Coca-Cola who had water dispensers removed from school and replaced with Coca-Cola machines. The consequences were both immediate and appalling for the health of Mexican children.

By the time Indonesia gets a handle on vaccinating and managing Covid and variants the damage from the commercialization of food beverages will have created another enormously costly health crisis.

 

[LRB]

In the history of humanity illness and pandemics are the norm. The healthy long-lived ones were the exceptions to the rule.
We are lucky nowadays to have the benefit of science and medicine to start addressing/managing some of the diseases mentioned. Childhood vaccines have probably made the biggest improvement to longevity overall.
So I don't think its a matter of "how did we get here" for Indonesia. Maybe I could agree to ask "how did we get here" about certain factors such as obesity in westernized parts of society (or indeed the hullabaloo over the covid vaccines).
But overall we are living in the most collectively "healthy" time for humanity overall - but people don't seem to realize this.

I just want to say that this is an excellent post. Regarding the pandemics thing, Plagues and Peoples by William H. MacNeill (loosely accurate) is a very good historical account of this. The late Hans Rosling has lots of YouTube content on the other issue. His organization Gap Minder is really good with stuff like this. )

 

[gemima]

There is a tendency to underrate the importance of improved access to nutritious food, clean water and vastly improved hygiene and sanitary systems when considering public health. Science and medical achievements have contributed but are overrated.

If you look at the data the increases in longevity are largely due to childhood vaccinations. Of course food and hygiene contribute but I'm not sure people really are eating that much healthier now compared to 100 years ago (In my personal family experience, my 4 grandparents all had access to very healthy nutritious food as they were all born on farms). Clean water is defo a big factor.

I agree with you about the food industry being completely corrupt re getting people hooked on junk food and leaving us with a massive obesity epidemic.