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That is a bit of a head scratcher. I have lots of guesses, but if I post them I might have to respond to myself asking for sources. Can't be asked. Interesting, though.
INFORMATION AND COMMUNITY FOR EXPATS IN INDONESIA
DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.
- Thread starter harryopal1
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I saw something about the tiger having covid. I thought I had a link to the article, but I might have only seen the headline from The Jakarta Post on Facebook. I want to know how they tested the tiger.
I want to say back in early 2020, there were rumors of dogs and cats being able to have covid and maybe pass it on. It reminded me of Planet of the Apes(the original movies), more specifically, Conquest of the Planet of the Apes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)
Sometimes I wonder which movie we are in.
I want to say back in early 2020, there were rumors of dogs and cats being able to have covid and maybe pass it on. It reminded me of Planet of the Apes(the original movies), more specifically, Conquest of the Planet of the Apes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)
Sometimes I wonder which movie we are in.
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Since it is 2 tigers and the fact they would bite your face off if given the opportunity, chances of getting that close should protect you if they in fact can spread it. Dogs and cats are a different story.
If you're close enough to a tiger to catch Covid from it, a virus is probably the least of your concerns!
Speaking of animals, apparently Covid is rampant in America's white tailed deer population, a survey found about 30% to have antibodies: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_health/one_health/downloads/qa-covid-white-tailed-deer-study.pdf
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Which reminds me of all these people on motorbikes diligently wearing their masks but still in shorts, t-shirt, sandals and no helmet!
harryopal1
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Given that zoo cages have bars I imagine that it may be possible to be close enough to a tiger to be coughed at without being eaten. But why just confine Covid to Tigers? I wonder how many other animals might be able to be infected. A bald statement that the animals can't transmit Covid may sound reassuring but I doubt there's enough scientifically gathered data to prove that as a fact. So in the absence of real evidence that kind of assertion, I guess, is one of the reasons why people do not just completely put their faith in the "experts."
Minks also responsible for Covid transmission.
Huge numbers culled in Denmark and the Netherlands last year. France also looked into it, having a few "mink farms"
Culled and burried in a hurry, ans now there are new consequences...
www.nbcnews.com
www.bbc.com
A question raised last year was "how did the minks got it in the first place ?"
And one of the likely answer was they got it from humans, i.e. the farm employees.
And the next step was the minks "handing it back" to other humans.
And as minks live in huge communities, a bit like a chicken farm, once it is in there it spreads at a terrific speed.
Google is your friend
Huge numbers culled in Denmark and the Netherlands last year. France also looked into it, having a few "mink farms"
Culled and burried in a hurry, ans now there are new consequences...
Here's why Denmark killed 17 million minks after more than 200 Covid outbreaks at fur farm
Denmark culled 17 million minks in November in response to Covid-19 outbreaks at more than 200 mink farms. Now the country plans to dig up the dead animals after they started to rise out of their shallow graves.
www.nbcnews.com
Covid: Denmark to dig up millions of mink culled over virus
The animals will be exhumed from mass graves next year to prevent pollution, the government says.
www.bbc.com
A question raised last year was "how did the minks got it in the first place ?"
And one of the likely answer was they got it from humans, i.e. the farm employees.
And the next step was the minks "handing it back" to other humans.
And as minks live in huge communities, a bit like a chicken farm, once it is in there it spreads at a terrific speed.
Google is your friend
Helpful Herbert
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If mosquitoes can transmit it then we are all screwed.
Well, just to be sure maybe get a swab test from the tiger first!!
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A guy I know on Twitter who attended the same public health schools at the School of Aerospace Medicine as I, posted this. If only some would have paid attention to this in the past 50 years.
"When I went through NBC training (now called CBRN), they drilled a few ideas into our heads. Here a few of the big ones.
1) Worst case scenarios aren't created by zero containment. They're created by ineffective containment.
2) 2nd waves are almost always the worst waves, but aren't always the last. The reason 3rd waves tend to be not as bad (even though 3rd wave viruses are usually stronger than 2nd) is because by then so many people have already died that the virus can't spread as easily.
3) The reason social distancing and staying home works is because it simulates the conditions created by mass death.
4) A deadly virus with an R factor of 5 or more is a potentially apocalyptic scenario. Delta's R is estimated to be between 6 and 9
5)Viruses adapt best under stress. That which does not contain it makes it stronger. Poor containment is like a gym for a virus. Our ineffective response so far is what created Delta. Our viral containment procedures are still ineffective. Now Delta is in the gym.
6) Most mutations don't make a virus worse. Lateral changes are still a problem over time. Eventually a virus can be different enough that vaccines don't work, but otherwise have the same effect on a host as the original. That's why the flu shot gets revised every year.
7) Every time a virus mutates, it might be worse. With enough mutations, it will become worse. That's what the virus gym is. Environmental stress that speeds up the mutation process.
8) Environmental stress + Time = exponentially increasing numbers of variants. That's how you create a super-plague. Just put it in a population that only has partially effective countermeasures, and wait.
9) If we want to end this thing we need to lock down again, for as long as it takes. It's what we should have done the first time around. We can either simulate the kind of mass death that naturally stops the spread of deadly diseases, or experience it.
"When I went through NBC training (now called CBRN), they drilled a few ideas into our heads. Here a few of the big ones.
1) Worst case scenarios aren't created by zero containment. They're created by ineffective containment.
2) 2nd waves are almost always the worst waves, but aren't always the last. The reason 3rd waves tend to be not as bad (even though 3rd wave viruses are usually stronger than 2nd) is because by then so many people have already died that the virus can't spread as easily.
3) The reason social distancing and staying home works is because it simulates the conditions created by mass death.
4) A deadly virus with an R factor of 5 or more is a potentially apocalyptic scenario. Delta's R is estimated to be between 6 and 9
5)Viruses adapt best under stress. That which does not contain it makes it stronger. Poor containment is like a gym for a virus. Our ineffective response so far is what created Delta. Our viral containment procedures are still ineffective. Now Delta is in the gym.
6) Most mutations don't make a virus worse. Lateral changes are still a problem over time. Eventually a virus can be different enough that vaccines don't work, but otherwise have the same effect on a host as the original. That's why the flu shot gets revised every year.
7) Every time a virus mutates, it might be worse. With enough mutations, it will become worse. That's what the virus gym is. Environmental stress that speeds up the mutation process.
8) Environmental stress + Time = exponentially increasing numbers of variants. That's how you create a super-plague. Just put it in a population that only has partially effective countermeasures, and wait.
9) If we want to end this thing we need to lock down again, for as long as it takes. It's what we should have done the first time around. We can either simulate the kind of mass death that naturally stops the spread of deadly diseases, or experience it.
harryopal1
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A major problem for a country like Indonesia is that millions live day to day on whatever little income they earn. Indonesia would seem not to have resources to provide for the millions of people who would be caught without means to survive a lockdown for "for as long as it takes". I guess this is why Jokowi has shied away from major lockdowns.
The Nobel prize winner Professor Peter Doherty is reported today as saying, "...we're going to be living this for quite a while...." The unpredictability of new mutations popping up makes it impossible to be sure about anything. He said, while it is important to have targets to aim for it is speculation. "Nothing is set in concrete."
If Australia is struggling to contain the spread of mutations it is difficult to imagine Indonesia managing the complicated logistics with major lockdowns and averting chaos from the desperate masses struggling to survive.
If it were a disease like Ebola that kills 50% of those infected, this would be the only option. But, like @harryopal also just said, "want to end this thing" is a very different calculation for a disease that kills 0.5-2%. Presidents, governors, and health ministers worldwide are in a terrible position to consider the balance between health and economic, supply chain, and other opposing forces, especially in less developed countries like Indonesia with less government resources, the average citizen having no savings, and a populace already 'comfortable' with regular deaths from preventable diseases and accidents.
Mass vaccination that in turn reduces the death rate and hospitalization to about 1/10th of what it used to be, is an alternative to lockdown. Once the death rate drops to 0.05 to 0.2%, this thing would just be a moderately bad flu, which will not be overflooding hospitals. At that time, it will just be an endemic disease that eventually burns out, and life can resume like normal.
Yes, there could be more variants even more transmissible than the current Delta one, but the next iteration of vaccines will also be better suited to handle them.
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You and Harry above you make good points. Granted, in Indonesia a total lockdown could never be put in place because of your reasons you gave but, more than likely because it would be ignored and not enforced.
Maybe the question should be, what if more were done to seriously try to impede the corona virus? What if more were held really responsible for breaking rules? Is enough being done now?
Positive for virus numbers and deaths caused by covid numbers can not be quoted here since it is common knowledge that the government is only reporting positives from their testing which has been reduced and from reports from medical facilities. There are many that just stayed home sick or were sent home by a med facility with no testing done. Of those who stayed home and died or were sent home and didn't die in a medical facility but still died at home are not reported as covid. It is estimated that these deaths could be 5 or more times higher than reported numbers.
Every day we hear one or another Majeet near us make announcements of a death. Before it was a couple times a month, now every day and a few times more than one in a day. Never die if covid. I am in the middle of living this right now. My SIL was really sick. I insisted her son that oversees her welfare take her to a doctor or at least get tested. The next day my wife talked to her sister and she said her son would not take her to a hospital because they wouldn't allow family to stay with her so better she is at home. 5 days after my insistance she got to where breathing was really diffecult. They had no choice than to take her to a hospital. That and a daughter in law of hers who is a nurse also now insisting on it. It took them 2 days to find a hispital that could fit her in. Finally one took her. They are not a designated covid hospital but have made arrangements to accomidate up to 3 if need be.
Right away she was put on oxigen in ICU. Another sister called my wife to inform her that our neice the nurse talked to the doctor and she said he said definately covid. As we figured all along for over a week. Talking to her children and their spouces, she has problems with her heart. Another, she has problems with diabetes. Not a single one would say she has covid. They admit her rapid test was reactive but even now keep saying the pcr test hasn't come back. The entire family is at the hospital. There is a viewing room but only one person allowed in there at a time. They tell my wife she should visit and I suppose they don't understand her "there us no way I am stepping foot in a hospital" reply.
This SIL comes in contact with a lot of people. The son's wife pawns the grandkids off on her constantly. His wife is also sick. Just same flu they say. No matter what, they are not going to be honest to all those that came in contact with her. I imagine that no matter how this goes, they still won't be wearing mask.
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Mass vaccination is the remidy but it needs to be managed right. Java and Bali are getting vaccinated. Everyone else wait. The mobility if Indonesians need the vaccinations to be equil across a nation.
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Do you think Indonesia will be equipped to provide the booster shots that will likely be needed in the future in a timely manner? 6 month boosters are already being deployed in multiple countries and I imagine more will follow soon. The current vaccines are less effective with Delta and waning over time. What about the next variant? When will we get ahead in the fight?
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I am only laughing at your post because your first sentence and how it relates to the government. From the very beginning(Jan 2020) to say it has been a cluster fuck is being too kind. Apart from the initial lockdown from the middle of March to early July 2020, majority of the things the government has done has been ineffective(multiple reasons).
Staying ahead of the next variant(I am going to say it will be out in 6 months), this will be next to impossible for any country even if everybody does what is asked and required. Indonesia though, no chance unless the following happens: you get Chuck Norris to donate his blood to every single person, every single star ship(Federation, Romulans, Borg, Kilgans, Cardasians, etc...) from Star Trek to use their replicators for the vaccines and transporters to deliver them, people to actually follow PSBB/PPKK/Whatever they are calling it instructions, the vaccines come with a halal certificate, people don't treat covid as something that is taboo, Sadly, none of this is going to happen.
I think this post sums up why the answers to your questions will be no.
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Health personnel are getting the boosters now. Probably will take some time to get them into their 1.5 million arms. As for everyone else, I guess if you have influence and cash you can get. Otherwise it will probably be well past the 6 month mark for the vast majority.
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This would apply to the Sinovac vaccines and the other Chinese ones being used here.
Effectiveness of an Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Chile
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