Vaccine effectiveness and Herd Immunity

[R Cameron]

The one announcing 700,000 more deaths before March next year being complete BS, not scientifically supported, but based only on some hypothetical mathematical, statistical extrapolation.

Yes, it's their statistical extrapolation. How do you know their analysis was BS and not scientifically supported? Why don't you give us your statistical extrapolation and in a few months we'll see who is closer to correct.

The one on "no panic" coming right after all countries have gone back in panic mode (which is obviously the "default" mode nowadays for most governments).

Did you read the article or just the headline? They are encouraging preparation, not panic, how can you disagree with that?

EDIT : Concerning the 700k possible deaths in Europe, remember the mad story in 2020 predicting 500k deaths in the U.K. ?
Absolute nonsense based on "out of the sky" data.

The 700k may not be in the "Europe" you're thinking about, and is not what I think about as "Europe", the article says in the first two lines:

A further 700,000 people could die of Covid by March in Europe and parts of Asia, the World Health Organization has warned.
The death toll already exceeds 1.5 million in the 53 countries of what the WHO terms as its Europe region.

 

[Balifrog]

There’s a lot of problems in the world, but if you expect people to not be concerned and take dramatic measures over a disease that has taken more than 5 million lives, then you’re part of the problem.

Families have been broken over less, like cheating, debt, political differences, etc. Deciding to not visit over a deadly disease is a lot more reasonable in comparison.

5M death on a world population of 7,9 Billion = 0,06 %
And that is on 21 months, because strangely for Covid we don't reset the counter every year....
So, say 3 M death per year for Covid.

Sure we need to stop the whole world economy for that.

Now compare it with this ......

Cancer

WHO fact sheet on cancer providing information on the health burden of different types of cancer, causes, risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, palliative care, and WHO's work in this area.

www.who.int

"Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide, accounting for nearly 10 million deaths in 2020 (1). The most common in 2020 (in terms of new cases of cancer) were:

• breast (2.26 million cases);
• lung (2.21 million cases);
• colon and rectum (1.93 million cases);
• prostate (1.41 million cases);
• skin (non-melanoma) (1.20 million cases); and
• stomach (1.09 million cases).

The most common causes of cancer death in 2020 were:

• lung (1.80 million deaths);
• colon and rectum (935 000 deaths);
• liver (830 000 deaths);
• stomach (769 000 deaths); and
• breast (685 000 deaths)."

So 10 M per year for cancer, multiply that by 30 or 40 years ? 3 M for Covid.
Till now I don't see cigarettes being banned ?

 

[Balifrog]

Yes, it's their statistical extrapolation. How do you know their analysis was BS and not scientifically supported? Why don't you give us your statistical extrapolation and in a few months we'll see who is closer to correct.


Did you read the article or just the headline? They are encouraging preparation, not panic, how can you disagree with that?


The 700k may not be in the "Europe" you're thinking about, and is not what I think about as "Europe", the article says in the first two lines:

Relax mate, sit back, sip a Bintang and have a look at the sea.
Zero reason to panic !

 

[Balifrog]

Again, may I repeat, the ONLY reliable numbers at which we should look is the "excess deaths" compared to previous years.
I thinkmI posted the numbers for France some time ago, here is a quick look at the numbers of England and Wales (NOT the whole UK, Scotland and N.I. being not included !). Data from the O.N.S. website :

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19), by age, sex and region.

www.ons.gov.uk

Excess mortality and mortality displacement in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Deaths registered in England and Wales by week, from 28 December 2019 to 2 July 2021. Breakdowns include country, sex, age group, region, place of death, and leading cause. Includes analysis of excess deaths and relative cumulative age-standardised mortality rates.

www.ons.gov.uk

83.000 CUMULATED excess deaths for the period 31/01/20 till 02/07/21 i.e. 17 months

Population of England : 56.550.000
Population of Wales : 3.170.000

Let's round at 60 M
83.000 : 60.000.000 = 0,14 % excess deaths on a 17 month period.

Plain numbers of "cases" as used by the press can seem very impressive (remember India) but when put in perspective with the population it gives a much more fair image.

Have a look at the links, the ONS (as the French INSEE) does a great job at keeping the country statistics, and in all domains.

 

[centurion]

Cancer is a deadly disease, flu is a deadly disease too.

If omikron is lethal as flu, what would be the next steps?

 

[Nimbus]

5M death on a world population of 7,9 Billion = 0,06 %
And that is on 21 months, because strangely for Covid we don't reset the counter every year....
So, say 3 M death per year for Covid.

Sure we need to stop the whole world economy for that.

Now compare it with this ......

Cancer

WHO fact sheet on cancer providing information on the health burden of different types of cancer, causes, risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, palliative care, and WHO's work in this area.

www.who.int

"Cancer is a leading cause of death worldwide, accounting for nearly 10 million deaths in 2020 (1). The most common in 2020 (in terms of new cases of cancer) were:

• breast (2.26 million cases);
• lung (2.21 million cases);
• colon and rectum (1.93 million cases);
• prostate (1.41 million cases);
• skin (non-melanoma) (1.20 million cases); and
• stomach (1.09 million cases).

The most common causes of cancer death in 2020 were:

• lung (1.80 million deaths);
• colon and rectum (935 000 deaths);
• liver (830 000 deaths);
• stomach (769 000 deaths); and
• breast (685 000 deaths)."

So 10 M per year for cancer, multiply that by 30 or 40 years ? 3 M for Covid.
Till now I don't see cigarettes being banned ?

You wanna play statistics? About 1.35 million people die of traffic accidents each year in the world. Wearing a seat belt in a car and a helmet on a motorcycle is mandatory just about everywhere, and it’s not controversial. Their effect in preventing death is roughly 50%, which is far lower than any vaccine.

People don’t wear seat belts and helmets because they’re lazy, not because they don’t believe in seat belts and helmets, as that would be stupid. Yet somehow arguing against vaccines and masks are not immediately seen as complete stupidity in some circles.

 

[Balifrog]

You wanna play statistics? About 1.35 million people die of traffic accidents each year in the world. Wearing a seat belt in a car and a helmet on a motorcycle is mandatory just about everywhere, and it’s not controversial. Their effect in preventing death is roughly 50%, which is far lower than any vaccine.

People don’t wear seat belts and helmets because they’re lazy, not because they don’t believe in seat belts and helmets, as that would be stupid. Yet somehow arguing against vaccines and masks are not immediately seen as complete stupidity in some circles.

Irrelevant.
Not worth an answer.

Oops, yes : Where did you got the idea that I was against vaccines and masks ?

 

[Nimbus]

Irrelevant.
Not worth an answer.

Oops, yes : Where did you got the idea that I was against vaccines and masks ?

I’ll declare your answer irrelevant too. That’s easy.

 

[Missnaughty]

You wanna play statistics? About 1.35 million people die of traffic accidents each year in the world. Wearing a seat belt in a car and a helmet on a motorcycle is mandatory just about everywhere, and it’s not controversial. Their effect in preventing death is roughly 50%, which is far lower than any vaccine.

People don’t wear seat belts and helmets because they’re lazy, not because they don’t believe in seat belts and helmets, as that would be stupid. Yet somehow arguing against vaccines and masks are not immediately seen as complete stupidity in some circles.

Wearing helmet and seatbelt do not involve injecting a foreign material into our body, which IMHO hasn’t been studied enough.

 

[William King]

which IMHO hasn’t been studied enough.

What would be enough study then?

How qualified is your opinion?

 

[Missnaughty]

What would be enough study then?

How qualified is your opinion?

Time. I do not need any qualification to look at the calendar.

 

[Will_M]

How do anti vaxxers expect studies to be concluded if they don’t agree with vaccines. How many more people (already 5jt) have to die until it’s “satisfactory” for them? Just sounds like a cop out answer to me.

 

[Missnaughty]

How do anti vaxxers expect studies to be concluded if they don’t agree with vaccines. How many more people (already 5jt) have to die until it’s “satisfactory” for them? Just sounds like a cop out answer to me.

I am not an anti vaxxers. We all need solution to covid 19. But pushing mandatory on something that has not been studied enough is not fair. Let the “mass test” done voluntarily. I always encourage people to have vaccination, but dont make me nor my children to do one. I want to see what happen with all people in 3-5 years after vaccination. Especially those who received mRna technology. And bear in mind, the unvaccinated are not the danger to the vaccinated. You supposed to be protected after vaccination right?

And I understand that expressing my opinion can be a danger to the community as I think my argument is easy to be followed and I dont call people stupid just because they have different opinion.

To avoid chaos, governmennt(s) must be united to offer solution for covid. Can you imagine if the government said there is no cure nor solutions for covid? So, something has to be done. Eventhou, it is still premature, the government(s) pushing “the vaccination” as the solution . Therefore, you see there are always new facts comes out all the time about Covid vaccine.

Of course, when the scientists and the vaccine maker have had enough research (volunteers and time) and fully understand about the behaviour of the virus and long term side effect of the vaccine, mandatory is a must. By then, risk and side effect can be calculated.

I am sure having this type of opinion do not need one to have a certain qualification. But to explain the efficacy and side effect of the vaccine, you need to be qualified.

 

[gemima]

Wearing helmet and seatbelt do not involve injecting a foreign material into our body, which IMHO hasn’t been studied enough.

So you do realize that everything you eat/ breathe is "injecting a foreign material into our body" and the restrictions about food safety (pesticides in veg and god only knows what in meat (the animals are injected with all sorts and many are fed anti-biotics daily) & air pollution are very lax in many countries (particularly the US and Indonesia).

I know you are not anti-vaxx so I don't want to be argumentative with you (like some others are on here and I really think it's unhelpful).
I see this argument (injecting a foreign material) a lot from many people who do MUCH more "dangerous" stuff daily but they still use this argument against vaccines. Literally, everything we do has risks. Every breath you take goes straight into your lungs and enters your blood. Your meals are digested and also end up into your blood. Your skin can also absorb some dangerous chemicals (but its much more protected than the lungs and digestion tract). We run these risks daily without even thinking about them. but because vaccines are a bit unusual everyone suddenly thinks they are dangerous.
Our bodies are not temples - they evolved to handle a wide range of insults - the vaccines are really not this weird dangerous thing to our bodies- they are just another thing that gets mopped up by the immune system.

 

[El_Goretto]

And bear in mind, the unvaccinated are not the danger to the vaccinated. You supposed to be protected after vaccination right?

These are some of the risks with too many unvaccinated:
1. They are a danger to themselves: the virus spreads more easily among them, leading to more of them dying
2. They are a danger to people who cannot get vaccinated due to medical reason
3. The more unvaccinated people, the easier it is for the virus to mutate and become more dangerous for vaccinated people
4. When the unvaccinated overcrowd the healthcare infrastructure, it becomes a danger for people needing treatment for non-covid related emergencies (short staffed hospitals, not enough beds, etc)
5. The longer this virus is around due to low vaccination rates, the longer the strain on the economy. This is already having a devastating impact on the vulnerable part of the population, with all its consequences on well-being, mental and physical health.

I understand your concerns with a vaccine that has had a short (or accelerated) testing period. In an ideal situation, more thorough and longer tests would be better but this is an emergency situation. So what's the alternative? There isn't any because if we don't deploy any vaccine or effective treatment, millions of people will die, the world economy will be shattered, etc.

Maybe this could help you understand the impact of vaccination on the population (it's a reddit link, if it's blocked I highly recommend you use a VPN or something to check it out):

 

[Balifrog]

Points 1 to 5 very "discutable" .....

But follows the western governments official version !

 

[El_Goretto]

Points 1 to 5 very "discutable" .....

But follows the western governments official version !

If your only argument is tin foil hat conspiracy theories, then I'm afraid I have nothing more to discuss.

 

[Missnaughty]

So you do realize that everything you eat/ breathe is "injecting a foreign material into our body" and the restrictions about food safety (pesticides in veg and god only knows what in meat (the animals are injected with all sorts and many are fed anti-biotics daily) & air pollution are very lax in many countries (particularly the US and Indonesia).

I know you are not anti-vaxx so I don't want to be argumentative with you (like some others are on here and I really think it's unhelpful).
I see this argument (injecting a foreign material) a lot from many people who do MUCH more "dangerous" stuff daily but they still use this argument against vaccines. Literally, everything we do has risks. Every breath you take goes straight into your lungs and enters your blood. Your meals are digested and also end up into your blood. Your skin can also absorb some dangerous chemicals (but its much more protected than the lungs and digestion tract). We run these risks daily without even thinking about them. but because vaccines are a bit unusual everyone suddenly thinks they are dangerous.
Our bodies are not temples - they evolved to handle a wide range of insults - the vaccines are really not this weird dangerous thing to our bodies- they are just another thing that gets mopped up by the immune system.

I too very concerned on how the “united government” try to put enough food for everyone of us. Do you know that nowadays you can not breed chicken without getting the baby chicks controlled by companies? The food that we eat now cause obesity, cancer, diabetes, cholesterol.. andant more. And it is also worry me (for the future) that one day only certain companies that own and hold ancient seed, the government only allow people to grow and farm the GMO version of the seed. As much as I am against this, I also understand without the GMO the food won’t be enough for everyone. I do my best with food too.

Back to the vaccine, this virus (whether it is human made or nature born) is a smart virus and have the ability to mutate and adapt with the condition of the host. I do not need to be qualified to say this, we see it with our own eyes. I think the scientiests are now researching whether human gen is playing part of it. When all
of this done, what’s left are the super healthy human race with the ability to knock down any variant of any smart virus. Covid-19 is just like fly virus, it will be with us forever.

 

[dafluff]

Back to the vaccine, this virus (whether it is human made or nature born) is a smart virus and have the ability to mutate and adapt with the condition of the host. I do not need to be qualified to say this, we see it with our own eyes. I think the scientiests are now researching whether human gen is playing part of it. When all
of this done, what’s left are the super healthy human race with the ability to knock down any variant of any smart virus. Covid-19 is just like fly virus, it will be with us forever.

Wow, you saw the virus mutate with your own eyes? Amazing. Did you sequence their DNA? Are you actually a microbiologist? Oh wait, you waived the need for qualification when you are spouting garbage. How convenient.

The irony about you opposing the vaccine mandate is that the reason mandates are even being considered is because of people like you.

 

[Missnaughty]

Wow, you saw the virus mutate with your own eyes? Amazing. Did you sequence their DNA? Are you actually a microbiologist? Oh wait, you waived the need for qualification when you are spouting garbage. How convenient.

The irony about you opposing the vaccine mandate is that the reason mandates are even being considered is because of people like you.

Well.. it is not literally my own eyes geez.. . OMG .. You just try so hard to make me look stupid don’t you? Everyday we have been told it’s mutated.. do I really need to have qualificafion in medical field to read the news?? That’s what I meant!

Now someone with qualification need to tell me about the eficacy of this vaccine, as for stupid person like me, this vaccine DOES NOT WORK! We are still in lock down, the vaccinated still get sick and die and spreading it to others, whether they are vaccinated or not. I can see with my OWN EYES… NOTHING HAS CHANGED since the first time virus emerged!

Do you know how many health workers I know died in the field After sinovac and moderna? Many! And the authorities easily explained that because the factor of amount of virus exposure. NO ONE will ever say vaccine DOES NOT WORK. If people die of covid after vaccine.. they will always find other reason but the vaccine does not work. So mandate it after the scientist find the real deal! It is their job to find us real solution.