DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[dafluff]

All that location data that Google keeps on everyone with Android phones does give us an ability to see how much we reduced our mobility.

For Indonesia, it recorded a 43% reduction in Retail & Recreation, 24% reduction in Grocery & Pharmacy, 58% reduction in transit stations. Data until Apr 05, so basically before any of the "mandatory" restrictions.



You can check the report here on Indonesia, and many other countries:

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

 

[Pak Asam Manis]

Many poor Indonesians with lower education levels, especially the older ones, seem to have very limited ability to understand the true nature and threat of the virus and disease. They believe what they can see. And habits, especially those born and bred of economic necessity are very hard to change. My wife has been trying to convince her mother by FaceTime / Skype or whatever she is using to stock up on staple supplies like rice and dried fish, canned sardines etc, and begging her to stay at home and not to go to the cemetery to sell flowers as usual. First she refused, then she relented and promised not to go, then she started going anyway but finally, one of my wife's cousins living in the kampung (in Balikpapan) died from the virus and now the kampung is on lockdown with TNI guarding the entrance / exits. Now everyone is scared.

Here in the US, and elsewhere, in Europe and the UK, things are pretty dire as you all can see ... this is not the flu, anyone still making that ridiculous comparison is either a kool-aid drinker or otherwise sadly misinformed. I'm one of at least 15-20 million Americans who've already lost our jobs and on stay at home orders for the last three and a half weeks.

About lockdown in Indonesia, I am not there and can't see what's going on with my own eyes but from what my wife tells me it sounds like many or most of the people calling for lockdown are from the middle and upper classes and what they really want (besides just taking advantage of another opportunity to criticize Jokowi) is a lockdown for the poor but not for themselves, which would be absolutely unfair as the poor are the ones who can least afford to stay at home.

Please take this as deadly serious, as that is what it is, and do what you can to persuade others to do the same.

 

[Bad_azz]

Not sure if any of you have seen this or not, but the video in this study give a very clear indication of how vapour travels from our mouths/noses.


https://jamanetwork.com/journals/ja...Pn7hvJi36eojPy0QUKFNzr7U9iYd8_bAo7RUUGXsTwmzs

 

[nardo]

Re Trump....
Trump’s promotion of the drug hydroxychloroquine has raised questions about his motivation, and on Monday the New York Times reported that the president holds “a small personal financial interest” in Sanofi, the company that makes a brandname version of hydroxychloroquine.
A group of French researchers published a refutation of the Raoult study in Médecine et Maladies Infectieuses on 30 March. The researchers, at Saint Louis hospital in France, followed the same regimen of hydroxychloroquine for 11 patients, and did not have similar results. “We found no evidence of a strong antiviral activity or clinical benefit of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of our hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19,” they wrote. “Ongoing randomized clinical trials with hydroxychloroquine should provide a definitive answer regarding the alleged efficacy of this combination and will assess its safety.”
Social media companies, who have been proactive about policing misinformation about coronavirus, have taken some steps to counter the spread of false claims. Google took down the Google document by Rigano , though the company has not responded to numerous requests for an explanation. Twitter has also deleted tweets by the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, and the Fox News personality Laura Ingraham that touted the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine....

 

[El_Goretto]

In 2 years time we will see a shock documentary of the behind the scene of this drama. Just like with Cambridge analytica and the likes.

 

[dafluff]

Trump’s promotion of the drug hydroxychloroquine has raised questions about his motivation, and on Monday the New York Times reported that the president holds “a small personal financial interest” in Sanofi, the company that makes a brandname version of hydroxychloroquine.

Trump having financial interest in developing a treatment for Covid-19, but then backing the one with a patent that has expired 25 years ago, is so on brand for him.

A group of French researchers published a refutation of the Raoult study in Médecine et Maladies Infectieuses on 30 March. The researchers, at Saint Louis hospital in France, followed the same regimen of hydroxychloroquine for 11 patients, and did not have similar results. “We found no evidence of a strong antiviral activity or clinical benefit of the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of our hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19,” they wrote. “Ongoing randomized clinical trials with hydroxychloroquine should provide a definitive answer regarding the alleged efficacy of this combination and will assess its safety.”

Raoult recently posted a follow up abstract to his earlier study, this time with 1,061 participants (his tweet quoted below). However, 1,008 (95%) of those in the study had a low NEWS score, meaning they were basically asymptomatic, or light symptoms. The important question is not how many were cured, it is how many were cured when compared to those not treated.

While I believe Raoult to be a credible scientist, until he (or someone else) does a controlled study, there is nothing we can deduce from this.

 

[centurion]

The problem for participants in such randomized clinical trial is that they have a 50% chance to not get the treatment, meaning they have to be enough altruistic to die for others.

 

[R Cameron]

The problem for participants in such randomized clinical trial is that they have a 50% chance to not get the treatment, meaning they have to be enough altruistic to die for others.

I think most trial participants are optimistic and hope they are in the group receiving the drug, and yet the whole reason there is a trial is that it is not yet proven to work, and may in fact make matters worse. With an ailment which has no other proven treatment, they are missing out on nothing by being in the non-treated group, and in fact receive some small benefit as even placebos are proven to have positive results (through psychological influence).

 

[dafluff]

The problem for participants in such randomized clinical trial is that they have a 50% chance to not get the treatment, meaning they have to be enough altruistic to die for others.

This assumes the treatment works, which we just don't know. Framed another way, 50% will not get drugs that is known to cause heart attacks. Every real drug trial needs a controlled double blind test for it to be of value.

Also since Raoult is treating mostly asymptomatic/low symptomatic cases, which we know has an over 95% survival rate with no or minimal treatment, the vast majority of participants will come out just fine.

 

[harryopal1]

What we really need now is for former Vice President, Dick Cheney and Halliburton to emerge with an untendered contract with the United Nations for world wide management of Covid 19. Their untendered contract with the US government during the Iraq war showed panache, style and all things great about the American way. If there is a disaster in hand....there are super profits to be made.

Okay, so they won't actually stop the outbreak and there may be some collateral damage but think of the money.

I recall a reported instance during that war of a call being made for 10 trucks. Halliburton sent people to scour for 10 beaten up wrecked trucks and charged over a million dollars a piece for them,

If you want to be distracted from the continuing stuff about Cornona just Google "Halliburton Iraq War."

A good start can be made with this link.

https://books.google.co.id/books?id...ge&q=halliburton truck deals in iraq&f=false

 

[centurion]

This assumes the treatment works, which we just don't know. Framed another way, 50% will not get drugs that is known to cause heart attacks. Every real drug trial needs a controlled double blind test for it to be of value.

Also since Raoult is treating mostly asymptomatic/low symptomatic cases, which we know has an over 95% survival rate with no or minimal treatment, the vast majority of participants will come out just fine.

If the treatment does not work, why are Chinese and Koreans using it?

Also, the Chinese did some double-blind tests. Some small researches are published, but the majority are not yet published.

And to frame it in a real situation, what would you do if you get coronavirus in Indonesia and start getting moderate symptoms?

And on the attachment -link that you put says "(56 patients who did not declare any symptom before treatment start were excluded and 77 with missing data) ", does it means tha asymptomatic cases were excluded from the research?

 

[harryopal1]

If the treatment does not work, why are Chinese and Koreans using it?

Also, the Chinese did some double-blind tests. Some small researches are published, but the majority are not yet published.

And to frame it in a real situation, what would you do if you get coronavirus in Indonesia and start getting moderate symptoms?

People use lots of things without either scientific evidence or proof because they believe or hope something might work. Amulets to ward off evil eyes. Elaborate rituals. Drinking of urine for good health. Going into a trance while holding cobras.

"..to frame it in a real situation, what would you do if you get coronavirus in Indonesia and start getting moderate symptoms?" Personally, I would wear Amulets to ward off evil eyes. Engage in elaborate rituals. Drink urine for good health and go into a trance while holding cobras.

Ohh yes, and panic a little bit.

 

[harryopal1]

As for Chinese double blind tests? The Chinese are a wonderfully inventive and creative people having achieved incredible progress but frankly I would not trust completely any claims about medicine or health coming out of China. I recall a former head of the pharmaceutical oversight body being executed for taking bribes for turning a blind eye to the release of untested medicines.

 

[R Cameron]

If the treatment does not work, why are Chinese and Koreans using it?

China certainly isn't well known for its scientific rigor in medicinal practice. I don't know much about Korea though.

 

[dafluff]

And on the attachment -link that you put says "(56 patients who did not declare any symptom before treatment start were excluded and 77 with missing data) ", does it means tha asymptomatic cases were excluded from the research?

I don't think so, since he cites 1000+ cases were with NEWS score between 0-4. A score of 0 means no symptoms.

If the treatment does not work, why are Chinese and Koreans using it?

A lot of people are using it, because they're desperate for anything. But no one has proven it works. If there is a paper from Korea about this, then I haven't seen it. I hope it works, but until someone comes out with real research, we can't determine this.

Also, the Chinese did some double-blind tests. Some small researches are published, but the majority are not yet published.

I haven't seen any data on this Chinese double blind test, other than basically an abstract, without any data whatsoever. Which is kinda suspicious in itself, since they published the initial abstract in February. Should be plenty of time to provide the supporting evidence.

And to frame it in a real situation, what would you do if you get coronavirus in Indonesia and start getting moderate symptoms?

Seeing that I don't have any counter-indication to HCQ, and I can have a doctor supervise this treatment, I may take it. Still doesn't mean it actually works though. Also as far as I know, no one is receiving either CQ or HCQ in Indonesia for CV19 right now, despite it being available.

Now on to some conjecture:

I feel that HCQ probably works on mild cases based on the proposed mechanism that it works (i.e. blocks replication the virus by allowing zinc to enter cells). It probably doesn't work on severe cases, because once your own immune system is trying to kill you, it is too late.

So the interesting area of research is either a) can you use it as a prophylactic? Prevent any viral replication at the onset?, b) can you use it on mild cases to prevent it becoming a severe case?, and c) does it in mild/moderate cases quicken the time to heal?

I believe there is research being done in all 3 situations, and we should see some real conclusions in the next month or so.

 

[R Cameron]

Here is a good, easy to understand, explanation of how hydroxycholoroquine might help, and some of the current status of studies and scientific understanding.


I will remain simultaneously hopeful and skeptical.

 

[centurion]

Hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine is used in most countries now (including some, I don't know if most of Europeans), alternatively with lopinavir, remdesivir and favipiravir.

But, only hydroxychloroquine is widely available and you can self medicate(let's say in Indonesia, if you do not believe in their hospitals). Side effects for dosage are minor, especially for coronavirus treatment that is usually 5-10 days. Side effects are more expressed if this medicine is used for longer periods, months). Also, there are some forbidden combinations, with metformin, ARB and others that could lead to heart attacks.

Also, allegedly or not, more efficient combination, hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, in some amount of cases is causing hearth problems, and basically you would have to have your heart monitored with EKG once a day during the therapy, so if you start getting hearth arrhythmias, therapy should be stopped.

In some protocols in some countries, azithromycin is not recommended with HCQ if not necessary.

 

[dafluff]

I don't think so, since he cites 1000+ cases were with NEWS score between 0-4. A score of 0 means no symptoms.

Actually I have to correct myself here. A score of 0 means no fever, no difficulty breathing, and no elevated BP and heart rate. You could still be coughing and/or have body aches. However, it still means a mild form of the disease, for which the treatment for the vast majority is bed rest at home.

 

[scouser59]

Imho, I would be very careful with chloroquine unless one is a doctor with experience in its side effects , I took it for its prescribed purpose ie anti malaria 30 years ago in somalia , I gave up after a couple of weeks , bad headaches ,bad stomach , etc ,
I felt so bad malaria seemed preferable ,which thankfully I never had the pleasure.

 

[atlantis]

Imho, I would be very careful with chloroquine unless one is a doctor with experience in its side effects , I took it for its prescribed purpose ie anti malaria 30 years ago in somalia , I gave up after a couple of weeks , bad headaches ,bad stomach , etc ,
I felt so bad malaria seemed preferable ,which thankfully I never had the pleasure.

Hear! Hear! Very same experience in at least three occasions for trips to Africa and South America 30 years ago too. I always stopped the preventive treatment less than 7 days after starting it due to terrible side effects including blurred vision, headaches, nauseas and diarrheas. Good health resumed very soon after stopping.
I would have to be very convinced I am positive to Covid19 and sure that it works for me to consider taking this medicine again.