Smoking...

[scouser59]

during my last travels over the last year, around the hinterland of java , there was loads of anti smoking banners across the roads , laid on by the local mosques , rokok is haram etc , will this be another victory for the muslim majority , like the alcohol ? I wonder .

its getting day by day closer to saudi , god help us ! so much for pancasila .

 

[Bad_azz]

during my last travels over the last year, around the hinterland of java , there was loads of anti smoking banners across the roads , laid on by the local mosques , rokok is haram etc , will this be another victory for the muslim majority , like the alcohol ? I wonder .

its getting day by day closer to saudi , god help us ! so much for pancasila .

I don't think it is an Islam thing- I would say it is a global issue- many Western countries have stringent smoking regulations & high taxes.
The UK is almost a smoke free zone to what it was 15 years ago.

 

[scouser59]

ya maybe , but i have never seen banners across the roads in the many of the villages and towns I passed thro on my travels this year in java rokok haram etc , and iv lived and worked in many muslim countries.

the banners were not health education posters .

 

[Tupai Hitam]

Will it create so much unrest amongst the masses that it stirs up riots?

Will it have a positive or negative impact on the economy?

Riots? Well, it's easy to instigate unrest in Indonesia. I don't think Philip Morris is so inclined, though. It tries hard to be ethical, even though it is in the business of killing people.

The government officially reaps about $10 billion a year in tobacco taxes, while TV networks are major beneficiaries of cigarette advertising. So if cigarette prices go up on Jan 1 to a level that starts making smokers quit, then state revenue will be down, as will the revenue of TV networks (owned by politicians or politically-connected tycoons) -- but there will be no discernible drop in the quality of local TV shows (they are already at rock-bottom).

What about the "hundreds of thousands" of jobs? Well, if every tobacco company can be as ethical as Sampoerna (Philip Morris) then the impact may not be too bad. When Sampoerna laid off about 5,000 staff a couple of years ago, it paid them above award severance and provided entrepreneurial training (and even equipment) so the former workers could start small businesses, such as food processing and packaging.

The argument by the anti-smoking lobby is that Indonesia's workforce will ultimately become more healthy and productive (by living longer) and the government will save billions (of dollars) in health care.

My opinion is that anything that stops productive farmland (used for food crops) from being transformed into tobacco plantations is a good thing. Parts of Eastern Indonesia have been hit by food shortages and child malnutrition over the past 20 years. This is partly because supposedly self-sufficient farming communities on some islands opted for tobacco growing, resulting in their islands becoming net food importers.

 

[Joko]

If I remember correctly from my recent visit, a pack of mid-priced rokok putih, say Indonesian-made Marlboros, was about 18,000? Am I right?

I found this site interesting, which listed the price of a pack of Marlboros for 124 different countries. At $1.40 per pack, Indonesia was 113th on that list. I know a pack of Marlboros in Thailand (made in the Philippines) is about $2. Point being, relatively speaking, Indonesia has a little room to raise their cigarette prices. I say this, and I'm a smoker.

Here in Myanmar, we don't have Marlboros made locally. If you find a place that sells them, they're made in Switzerland, and they also cost about $1.40 a pack. I never buy them. There's a locally made alternative that are just as good. Red Ruby... 60 cents (US) per pack.

 

[Terry MacArsey]

I'm pleased this has been let out of the cage because it will affect everyone that smokes at least and I don't think I qualify to be let in the cage yet, no problem, I respect that rules have to be put in place.

From what I can gather the price of Rp50,000 seems to have come from a survey of 1,000 people to find out if they would give up smoking and not from the government.

I'm hopeful that prices won't rise as drastically as suggested but we'll have to wait and see.

I know where I live, when the price of petrol is due to go up there seems to be a deliberate shortage which drives up the price for a few weeks but availability is also curbed drastically.

Petrol is then released into the system again and the price comes back down to a level that is more expensive than it was originally but there are no protests because the price is lower than the price it peaked at and more importantly petrol is readily available.

So, I hope that the stories are just scare stories so that when the price of a packet rises to, for example, Rp30,000 a packet, there won't be protests from either side of the argument because the anti-smoking brigade will realise that more money will be coming in to provide health care.

Some people will inevitably stop or reduce their smoking habits which will result in less people needing treatment.

Farmers will grow maybe a little bit less tobacco but will be happy enough that they haven't lost their jobs and die-hard smokers will be pleased that the price (even though it will go up about 50% if Rp30,000 a packet is correct) will be relieved that the price hasn't gone up to Rp50,000.

But, and it's a big but...I could be completely wrong !

 

[Smallworld]

The proposed price hike on ciggies will have a massive impact one way or another if it goes ahead & let's face it, it will likely go ahead.
I am curious how it will affect my neighbourhood- as we have fields full of tobacco all around us.
Will the workers get double pay if the price more than doubles?

Will it create so much unrest amongst the masses (& to be fair - masses are smokers here) that it stirs up riots?

Will it have a positive or negative impact on the economy?

I'm not really interested in the age old "I hate smokers & smoking " POVs .
I am more interested in the perceived economical/social impact.

http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/re...naik.hingga.rp.50.000.ini.tanggapan.sampoerna

Let's face it the rich boys making the rules in Jakarta won't notice the effect on their pockets.

1. If tobacco lobby will allow it to pass then yes there will be some turbulence on economy.

2. If people will smoke less (because the price hike) then there will be less tobacco fields as the consumption/demand will decrease. If could be also that all those small tobacco fields will stay but they will have to switch to sell it on black market.

3. Workers will not get a double pay.

4. I am not sure about unrest. The government has tax amnesty and is hoping to get a lot of money from it.

My guess is, such a sharp price hike will result in people getting their cigarettes or processed tobacco from black/grey market. For 2-5 years slowly switching to the prices in the shop or quitting / restricting smoking.

 

[Bad_azz]

It isn't due until January apparently.

Classic cloak & dagger political technique: leak the provocative bad news, make the issue sound big... watch the uproar, step in and say - hey chill out- actually yes we have some plans - but we don't quite know what they are yet, and they won't be implemented for 6 months. Basic strategy to diffuse in advance...
6 months comes around - public fearing worst case scenario & actual scenario is 75% as bad as people feared- the masses accept it.

Tried and tested the world over - should be chapeter 1 in the handbook : Politics for Dummies


They did it with the fuel prices, they will do it with rice - when that has to hike up.

But those are just political mind games.
It will build a simmering resentment.

 

[Bad_azz]

I'm pleased this has been let out of the cage because it will affect everyone that smokes at least and I don't think I qualify to be let in the cage yet, no problem, I respect that rules have to be put in place.

From what I can gather the price of Rp50,000 seems to have come from a survey of 1,000 people to find out if they would give up smoking and not from the government.

I'm hopeful that prices won't rise as drastically as suggested but we'll have to wait and see.

I know where I live, when the price of petrol is due to go up there seems to be a deliberate shortage which drives up the price for a few weeks but availability is also curbed drastically.

Petrol is then released into the system again and the price comes back down to a level that is more expensive than it was originally but there are no protests because the price is lower than the price it peaked at and more importantly petrol is readily available.

So, I hope that the stories are just scare stories so that when the price of a packet rises to, for example, Rp30,000 a packet, there won't be protests from either side of the argument because the anti-smoking brigade will realise that more money will be coming in to provide health care.

Some people will inevitably stop or reduce their smoking habits which will result in less people needing treatment.

Farmers will grow maybe a little bit less tobacco but will be happy enough that they haven't lost their jobs and die-hard smokers will be pleased that the price (even though it will go up about 50% if Rp30,000 a packet is correct) will be relieved that the price hasn't gone up to Rp50,000.

But, and it's a big but...I could be completely wrong !

Yeah this too- sorry saw it after I posted.

 

[Jim69]

The argument by the anti-smoking lobby is that Indonesia's workforce will ultimately become more healthy and productive (by living longer) and the government will save billions (of dollars) in health care.

How can the Government save "billions (of dollars) in health care????

They don't spend billions now, so how can they save it???

If the additional tax, was going to be used to set up a decent health care system, then that would be great. However we all know it wont be used in any positive way for the majority of the population.

 

[fastpitch17]

The law makers are dragging their feet. The tobacco industry is poweful here and the law makers and ministers know quite well how deep their pockets are.

 

[Davita]

How can the Government save "billions (of dollars) in health care????

They don't spend billions now, so how can they save it???

If the additional tax, was going to be used to set up a decent health care system, then that would be great. However we all know it wont be used in any positive way for the majority of the population.

Indonesia extended free health insurance to 48 percent of its population on Jan. 1. By the time the system is fully implemented in 2019 it will cover the whole country at an estimated cost of $15 billion a year -Source Christian Science Monitor March 2014.

 

[Jaime C]

I recall when I first came to Indonesia, most cigarettes were 6 to 7k per pack (2004).

18k doesn't seem like that much, 12 years later. I see people spending a high proportion of their income going to cigarettes in a lot of low income families.

 

[Jim69]

Indonesia extended free health insurance to 48 percent of its population on Jan. 1. By the time the system is fully implemented in 2019 it will cover the whole country at an estimated cost of $15 billion a year –Source Christian Science Monitor March 2014.

If the numbers are to be believed, i for 1 dont believe them. Go and take a look at the free health care...

 

[Scooterindo]

When I first arrived in RI a pack of Marlboro was Rp 3.000 - however this was pre Krismon.
Pound for pound 22 years later they are actually cheaper now than they were back then.

 

[Tupai Hitam]

How can the Government save "billions (of dollars) in health care????

They don't spend billions now, so how can they save it???

Expenditure on BPJS/JKN is reaching the billions. The state budget (equivalent to about $150 billion) has allocated 5% on healthcare expenditure this year. That works out to about $7 billion. But I do not know the percentage being spent on tobacco-related illnesses. Quite possibly, much of the health budget will disappear in administrative expenses.

Sri Mulyani has said she will cut government spending across almost all sectors, except healthcare, education and infrastructure. So we can expect healthcare spending to continue/increase -- and we can hope she will push for it to be spent properly.

Unfortunately, the Health Ministry is under the Coordinating Ministry for Human Development and Culture, which is headed by ex-president Megawati's daughter Puan Maharani. Puan is perhaps one of the worst ministers Indonesia has ever had (in the reform era). Even staff within her ministry deride her, claiming she is incompetent, often absent and allows funds to be misused. It's a shame that Jokowi was unable to chuck Puan on the scrapheap in the last reshuffle, but he's stuck with her. She was initially supposed to have been DPR speaker (after the 2014 election), but Prabowo's coalition scuttled that plan, so Jokowi offered to make her Social Minister. Insufficiently prestigious/powerful; so she was named coordinating minister. Although she has moved on from the days when she used to visit BATS in the mid-1990s, she should not be a minister. Compare her dispirited ministerial staff to those at the Finance Ministry, who beam with pride in having such a good boss as Sri Mulyani. </non-tobacco rant>

 

[Terry MacArsey]

Yeah this too- sorry saw it after I posted.

No problem BA. I just read what you had written and apart from obviously agreeing with you I had to check to see if I'd missed your post before I posted mine !

 

[ChrisTex]

I can think of a few other things the government should look at before saying they are going to raise the price of cigs and say it is for health reasons. People are going to smoke if they want to even if the government does raise the prices.

On a side note, I was vaping before I moved here and my wife told me she rather me smoke cigs instead of vape. I know in the US vaping has become seen as a good alternative, but people still complain about that too. I wonder if vaping will increase.

 

[Vicissidude]

A friend just told me that the price hike is not actually happening. Some health professor recommended it but the gov't has just come out as saying the rumors are untrue and that it's not so easy to increase the price so drastically, citing some problems with the local farmers and factories...

I may have misheard some details, and this too is just a rumor from a friend. I couldn't find any articles in English to support it. Has anyone heard anything more?

 

[jstar]

All the locals I talked to (incl. Carrefour and Farmers Market staff) told me 1 September would be the date for increase. But who knows.

Bought some slofs Marlboro Gold for the homefront just in case. They tell me over there it does taste differently though.

On Dutch Indo forums there is a big demand for kretek btw. Some have made it a small but profitable side business.