Nuclear submarines and regional security.

[jukung11]

While I generally agree with jstar that China's primary goal is economic, I don't underestimate the cultural pride that ceded territories represents for them. Hong Kong, Macau, and lastly Taiwan all exist because of the dominance by foreign powers took territory from China. Regardless of what the people of those territories currently want, the Chinese people want those territories reintegrated as a sense of national pride. China didn't quickly up its military spending to $200 billion and build the world's largest navy for no reason. I believe it plans to be more assertive and possibly aggressive on the world stage.

A key question seems to come up, "why nuclear submarines?". All modern naval ships, except submarines, can be tracked by satellite. Unlike conventional diesel submarines, nuclear submarines have an almost unlimited at depth and range. They are faster too. They are a more unpredictable variable in modern naval warfare.

This ability serves as both a deterrent for enemy shipping and defense of its shipping. China has to import most of its raw material, much of its energy, and some of its food. An untrackable fleet of submarines would effectively shut off most shipping traffic to China. Additionally, Australia has 22% of its GDP in exports. Naval power is vital to its economic interests.

Balifrog, Did you have a problem when Australians were buying diesel submarines from the French or just when they paid more to the British and Americans for the superior technology?

 

[pantaiema]

Agressive countries ? ...

Foreign interventions by the United States - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

"The United States has been involved in numerous foreign interventions throughout its history. By the broadest definition of military intervention, the US has engaged in nearly 400 military interventions between 1776 and 2019, with half of these operations occurring since 1950 and over 25% occurring in the post-Cold War period.[1] The objectives for these interventions have revolved around economy, territory, social protection, regime change, protection of US citizens and diplomats, policy change, empire, and regime building.[1]"

In the above link, go directly to "Cold war"

Russian Army struggles to take over a small parrt of Ukraine, and you think they will roll towards Berlin ? Get real man !
Poland ? They have the biggest army in Europe.

Taiwan : remember the next presidential elections are in Feb 2024. If the Kuomintan (KMT) wins which is not excluded, the relations with China will improve a lot and likely a peacefull take over will follow.
In case China.decides to invade, it would be before 2027 (100th anniversary of the P.L.A.) Nice present from the Army to the Party.

Taiwan industry : TSMC is building 2 giga factories in the US (pushed by Trump)
Foxcom : In a few years 50% of Apple phones will be made in India (10% at the moment)

Just FYI :
Grandfather in the Engineering Corps
Father 5 years Foreign Legion (Indochina and Algeria)
Myself 7 years Navy
My eldest son 5 years Air Force.
So yes, I am from a patriotic family and defending the values of "La République" (or what is left of it...)

Unless acting irrationally. There is no way Russia will invade Berlin, Poland. Both countries are the NATO members.

 

[Balifrog]

For now the Aus government is talking of$368 billion dollars for the submarines. It sees usual that these big expenditure items have a cost blow out along the way. I shouldn't be surprised if a bit further along the track we will be talking of $700 billion.

For second hand, 20+ years old submarines.

 

[Balifrog]

Balifrog, Did you have a problem when Australians were buying diesel submarines from the French or just when they paid more to the British and Americans for the superior technology?

Not the same.
One is mainly defensive, the nuclear ones are mainly agressive.
Superior technology ?
Well it better be....contract with France was 56 billion, say it would have blown to 70.
Contract with UK, US is 368 billion, probably going to 500 ?
Besides that, Australia has ZERO experience with nuclear technology, civilian or military, and you don't train an experienced naval nuclear engineer in 15 years...
Hence for several decades you will be completely dependant of the US.

Note that the Brits are also partly dependant on the US, their nuclear warheads come from there !

 

[Ruserious]

I feel that with drone (and presumably underwater drone) technology improving so much that this is a short sighted expense and that by the time these have been delivered they will be as effective as the outdated russian tanks are in Ukraine.

 

[serious_fun]

I feel that with drone (and presumably underwater drone) technology improving so much that this is a short sighted expense ...

My thoughts also, though I'm not a military person.

 

[ChrisTex]

How much money has been burnt for the war machines. Is it not better to be used to fight hunger in the least developed countries ??

While this is a good idea, there are multiple problems that are not easily fixed(getting rid of the corruption, climate)/can't be fixed without the right technology.

 

[jstar]

After the United States, Canada, and the European Union having taken measures, New Zealand is going to ban TikTok on devices that access the parliamentary network. The ban will be introduced at the end of this month due to cybersecurity concerns about the Chinese video app. The British government already decided on Thursday an immediate TikTok ban on business phones and other devices used by government employees.

Something else that has been going on for some time is the issue with the Chinese police stations in the western countries. In the Netherlands for instance, it was a rather big scandal; the offices are said to be located in Amsterdam and Rotterdam. They would be used to renew Chinese driver's licenses and communicate changes to civil records, as well as to monitor and potentially pressure dissident voices and critical Chinese.

Earlier, a spokesman for China's foreign ministry told the BBC that the so-called police stations are "actually service stations for Chinese people abroad" and that China fully respects the sovereignty of other countries. Those stations would have helped Chinese people with problems traveling to China in corona time. "Such service stations are mainly focused on physical examinations and the issuance of driver's licenses," the spokesman said.

The Chinese embassies confirmed these service stations have been closed.

 

[R Cameron]

While I generally agree with jstar that China's primary goal is economic, I don't underestimate the cultural pride that ceded territories represents for them. Hong Kong, Macau, and lastly Taiwan all exist because of the dominance by foreign powers took territory from China. Regardless of what the people of those territories currently want, the Chinese people want those territories reintegrated as a sense of national pride.

The History of Taiwan is an interesting read, and is significantly different from that of Hong Kong and Macau. Hong Kong was a part of the Qin Dynasty back in the 3rd century, Taiwan was nearly untouched by outsiders until the 17th century.

It was first controlled, in parts, by the Dutch and Spanish, and late in the 17th century was the first time it was held by a Chinese dynasty. Even then they did not quickly settle the island, mostly holding it militarily for strategic reasons. Only in the 19th century did the Chinese settlers begin to amount to a substantial number. And then the island was ceded to Japan in 1895 at the end of the Sino-Japanese War, and held by Japan through WWII.

In Taiwan, the Chinese were as much colonizers as the Dutch in Indonesia, British on the Malay penninsula, etc.

 

[William King]

For now the Aus government is talking of$368 billion dollars for the submarines. It sees usual that these big expenditure items have a cost blow out along the way.

Which is roughly equal to China's annual military spending...

 

[Balifrog]

The History of Taiwan is an interesting read, and is significantly different from that of Hong Kong and Macau. Hong Kong was a part of the Qin Dynasty back in the 3rd century, Taiwan was nearly untouched by outsiders until the 17th century.

It was first controlled, in parts, by the Dutch and Spanish, and late in the 17th century was the first time it was held by a Chinese dynasty. Even then they did not quickly settle the island, mostly holding it militarily for strategic reasons. Only in the 19th century did the Chinese settlers begin to amount to a substantial number. And then the island was ceded to Japan in 1895 at the end of the Sino-Japanese War, and held by Japan through WWII.

In Taiwan, the Chinese were as much colonizers as the Dutch in Indonesia, British on the Malay penninsula, etc.

Good to see someone digging a bit !
But you are ommiting the most important and recent event, i.e. the K.M.T. troops under command from Chian Kai Chek retreating in mass to Taiwan after their defeat in front of Mao's revolutionnaries.

Retreat of the government of the Republic of China to Taiwan - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This has till today a big political importance as the KMT political party tends to be rather pro-China. In fact they have said in the past being the legal China government.
The next presidential election in Taiwan is in Feb 2014, and the KMT party has a reasonnable chance to win (they won in several major cities, including Taipei during the recent regional elections).
Not to mention a possible "interference" by Bejing to tilt the balance in the right direction. They would sure prefer have Taiwan rejoin peacefully, rather than needing to go to war.
Of course as usual we can expect the US, specially with Biden, to throw oil on the fire....

BTW : Taiwan used to be called Formosa in the days.

 

[jstar]

as the KMT political party tends to be rather pro-China.

I don’t know how you understand the KMT’s view but in fact they have always been the most extreme. Now after some meetings in 1992 they have poured some water in the wine but the ridiculous situation is that the “One China” slogan means something different for everyone involved.

The KMT agrees to the One China principle, but they defined it always as being led by the Republic of China (=Taiwan) rather than the People's Republic of China!!! Can you imagine? Τhe dwarf telling the giant: “Yeah we want to merge but we will provide the leadership of the (new) country. So disabandon the CCP please.”

And the current government doesn’t even acknowledge the ‘92 consensus, there are parties who want full independence or the status quo and some still talk about “one country two systems”. What the PRC also would implement in HK later and which has been … ahem hugely successful.

It‘s a big mess…
.

 

[jstar]

The Russian Navy plans to equip its submarines with modern hypersonic weapons. Nikokay Yevmenov, the head of the navy, said this in an interview with "Krasnaya Zvezda", the magazine of the Russian army.

Hypersonic missiles are much faster than regular long-range weapons. It seems they go about ten to twenty times faster than the speed of sound. This means that the missiles travel roughly two kilometers per second. That speed makes it virtually impossible for defense systems to intercept them.

Besides this, several MiG-31K fighter jets equipped with hypersonic missiles have been spotted flying in and out of Belarus in the previous few months.

As far as the Tsirkon (or Zircon) hypersonic missile is concerned, the Russian Defense Ministry recently integrated the missile on the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and flagged the vessel for a voyage into the Atlantic Ocean.

 

[Balifrog]

I don’t know how you understand the KMT’s view but in fact they have always been the most extreme. Now after some meetings in 1992 they have poured some water in the wine but the ridiculous situation is that the “One China” slogan means something different for everyone involved.

The KMT agrees to the One China principle, but they defined it always as being led by the Republic of China (=Taiwan) rather than the People's Republic of China!!! Can you imagine? Τhe dwarf telling the giant: “Yeah we want to merge but we will provide the leadership of the (new) country. So disabandon the CCP please.”

And the current government doesn’t even acknowledge the ‘92 consensus, there are parties who want full independence or the status quo and some still talk about “one country two systems”. What the PRC also would implement in HK later and which has been … ahem hugely successful.

It‘s a big mess…
.

KMT (Chian Kai Chek) always considered themselves as the only legal government of China.
Technically they were, as Mao was a revolution overthrowing a legal government.
So yes, they dreamed about re invading the mainland and re establish their rule.
But years have passed,.reality has settled in.
HKG (I spend 8 years) was to be expected. Consider it as a revenge by China on the Brits who made them.lose face in the past. (Opium war, seizure of HKG island).

 

[R Cameron]

The Russian Navy plans to equip its submarines with modern hypersonic weapons. Nikokay Yevmenov, the head of the navy, said this in an interview with "Krasnaya Zvezda", the magazine of the Russian army.

Hypersonic missiles are much faster than regular long-range weapons. It seems they go about ten to twenty times faster than the speed of sound. This means that the missiles travel roughly two kilometers per second. That speed makes it virtually impossible for defense systems to intercept them.

Besides this, several MiG-31K fighter jets equipped with hypersonic missiles have been spotted flying in and out of Belarus in the previous few months.

As far as the Tsirkon (or Zircon) hypersonic missile is concerned, the Russian Defense Ministry recently integrated the missile on the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and flagged the vessel for a voyage into the Atlantic Ocean.

View attachment 2842

Seems pretty overrated in general, and the Russian models specifically (last 2 minutes of video):

 

[andyfrommalang2023]

The Albanese government in Australia has raised regional security as being relevant to the decision to spend $368 billion dollars over the next 30 years on developing a fleet of nuclear submarines. These submarines will not carry nuclear missiles. While loathe to say this is all directly related to a more aggressive stance by China in imposing itself in the south Pacific this clearly is the case. Yet fundamentally I think it is more about ensuring we are under a US military, defence umbrella. An historical obsession with a perceived threat that if we shake the world map millions of Chinese will just fall straight down into Australia has been part of the national paranoia and we hope the US will save us. I am inclined to think this would only happen if it is seen to be in US interests. American has had a rather unnerving habit of abandoning its allies when conflicts have not gone as intended.

I am not sure that Indonesia, other South East Asian and Pacific countries will feel more secure when this fleet finally takes shape... in the next 30 years or so. Meanwhile the costs will have a staggering impact on Australia and personally I am inclined to feel a much greater investment in long range drones and other military acquisitions and general economic development would make more sense. Lee Kuan Yew, the late Singaporean PM, had famously warned that Australians may become the cheap white trash of South East Asia. The present economic difficulties with inflation, impossibly priced accommodation, huge increases in utility costs and overall living costs are already pushing several hundred thousand Australians from comfort and into poverty. The belt tightening to pay for nuclear submarines may well see Lee Kuan Yew's prediction come to be reality.

But back to the original question. Who believes that Australian nuclear submarines will improve regional security for Australia or other South East Asian and Pacific countries?
View attachment 2837

As an Indonesian General said recently to an ADF Chief 'We do not fear a strong Australia. We fear a weak one.'

 

[Dave70]

As an Indonesian General said recently to an ADF Chief 'We do not fear a strong Australia. We fear a weak one.'

Who was that Indonesian General? What's his name? Thanks in advance.

 

[jstar]

Pomfret and Pottinger write in the magazine Foreign Affairs about some perceived changes that don’t promise anything good…

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

The world should take him seriously.

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[harryopal1]

If China is experiencing any kind of downturn that creates domestic problems then saying China is in danger and must prepare for war is a convenient way of covering up internal dissent.

 

[harryopal1]

The Qld governments cross river rail project which was to cost $6.3 billion has had a blow out of $960 million and may open 3 months later than planned. So what kind of blow out and delays might we expect with $368 billion on the nuclear submarines?















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