North Korean Sabre Rattling

[Teabag]

Not having a clue to which generation you belong to, please explain just which generation you refer and just who it was that made all those mistakes.

I'm still young and have now to life with the consequences of friendships which were made 30 or 40 years ago. Those friends and heros were used as some people needed it to reach their targets. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.....

 

[fastpitch17]

I'm still young and have now to life with the consequences of friendships which were made 30 or 40 years ago. Those friends and heros were used as some people needed it to reach their targets. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.....

So, does that mean your generation will just live with it or does it plan on doing something about it. Seems those in power in your generation are screwing things up as badly as anyone who came before them.

 

[El_Goretto]

NK will be a very credible threat when they are able to consistently launch nuclear missiles from submarines and make nuclear warheads small enough to outfit them. And they're getting closer to it.

South Korea and Guam are protected by the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system which will make short work of any ballistic missile as long as it knows which general direction it's coming from.

THAAD has a limited coverage arc which is why it is pointed at NK. But once NK is able to strike from submarines, it's another problem altogether since they can strike from outside the coverage arc.

The other problem is that it is not clear whether this defense system is able to eliminate a barrage of missiles, which NK has showed they were able to do recently by launching multiple ballistic missiles in succession from mobile launchers on the highway.

All of NK's sabre rattling is in response to this THAAD where they are trying to show how they could counter it in multiple ways by overwhelming it or launching from the sea.

And there isn't just the thread of nuclear weapons. NK could do a lot of damage to SK with conventional artillery and non nuclear short and medium ballistic missiles.

If you want to read some good analysis on this topic (and anything related to current geo-politics and military), I recommend articles by Tyler Rogoway over at Fox Trot Alpha and TheDrive.

 

[Teabag]

So, does that mean your generation will just live with it or does it plan on doing something about it. Seems those in power in your generation are screwing things up as badly as anyone who came before them.

Fastpitch: I fully agree with this.... unfortunately

 

[HappyMan]

Nope, that's not gonna run. Best example is the 'arabic spring'. The 'West' thought, if Sadam or Gaddafi or any other despot is once gone, then the people will fix the rest and democracy is installed. Those plans ALL failed miserably. Also the 'sit in the desert and bomb with drones' plan did not really run. The effects we have now in Europe are endless refugees which flood the countries, mainly Germany. The cultural and social problems are uncountable, especially for the next generation, our children. The fairy-tale of integration was not true. The western countries become more and more hotspots for huge problems. Jobless people who stay in the social care, salary dumping, DEcreasment of crime in %, but more serious crimes, the social status of women, poor elderly people because of no pension plan... just to name a few.

I liked the world better before the 'West' wanted to bring peace to the world. Also the lies from Rumsfeld and Powells and the US administration in this time did not make the world a better place. In the old time, you had to deal with a few figures (dictators), now you have to deal with several representative in one country, which run all in different directions.

The conclusion is, let those dictators on their own and if you (the west) needs to intervene, then do it the right way including ground troups. Then you'll have to stay for decades there and its unclear whether you will reach a stabil environment or not.

We (the west), especially the generation before us did allot wrong and cheated here and there. No wonder we have such a mass in the world now.

Just my 2 cents.

Teabag, sending in ground troops creates its own problems, as well. You know why the North Vietnamese fought so hard against the Americans? They were convinced they were being invaded, that America wanted to colonize their country. The North Koreans have been hearing the same type of dogma for generations. You send in troops, they are never going to change their minds. The wars in Iraq cost the States about two trillion dollars, an amount equal to roughly thirty years of Iraq's gross oil export income, an amount it would be inconceivable to recuperate. The numbers are clear, no genius plotters hatched a plan to get free oil. Still, I hear people saying, "it was for the oil". If we hadn't gone into the country, we'd have saved a bundle, and half the world wouldn't be confused about what happened, they'd know it for the regime change and ideological idiocy it was. I find it hard to believe the current situation would be worse if we had simply assassinated Saddam, thought the only good solution would have been to leave Iraq alone, as they were not an actual threat.

If we want to say that we care about the NK people, which I did leave out of the hypothetical, then what do you propose we do? They will not welcome ground troops, but if they fight, they will surely die by the millions. They seem unlikely to depose their madman. Their leader is threatening the rest of the world with nuclear war .* Is there a solution that doesn't make things worse for the NK people, and doesn't have their leader holding a nuclear weapon? Appeasement?

*I do realize the irony of an American going on about the threat of nuclear war, but I honestly don't believe the US would use nukes as anything other than retaliation for a nuclear strike.

 

[Bad_azz]

Won't it be interesting if Trump gets into the WH to see how he gets along with L'il Kim?
I suppose he could try to diffuse it all by building resorts & golf courses all over NK?

The world is going bonkers- seriously it is losing the plot.

 

[PhilippeD]

If we only care about NK as a threat to other nations, then the solution is simple. You go after the top leadership and military installations, with surgical precision. Don't put anyone on the ground. Leave the NKs to sort themselves out. If the next guy is as bad or worse... he gets the same. Meanwhile, the NK people go from having a marginally workable system where most of them survive to being completely screwed and having some larger part of their population starving to death...

I don't really see an external solution for the NK problem that doesn't suck for the NK people, in the short term.

We should do the same with the US if trump is elected... wait, hilarry too is hated, we should bomb the white house whatever who win the election. Problem solve!

We have plenty of very recent evidence of when a dictator fall the country don't become a heaven of peace the next day.
It is also in the kind of context that many of the today terrorist group are born.

 

[Dan]

The key to North Korea is its military. Finding generals willing to lead a coup would be ideal. I'd like to say its people could be converted but quite frankly they don't know any better. They have a very limited, distorted view of the larger world beyond their borders. They largely think North Korea is the world's most advanced society because state propaganda says it's so. Trying to deprogram their population isn't going to work.

Starving them out also won't work. They've starved before, and it hasn't made a dent in the Kim family's power.

The only way to defeat North Korea militarily is a scorched earth policy coupled with total disregard for civilian casualties. We'd have to be willing to do what we did in 1945. We're unwilling to do that, so we cannot fight a war with North Korea (or really any country). Besides, South Korea wouldn't stand for that; they've lived it before.

 

[Anglian]

They seem to have lots of generals and he still has a few relatives left, you would think a brave soul would put a bullet in him, but if they think this is how life is and doesn't get better than this why would they, then if someone did what sort of mayhem would that unleash, as it would have been The US or SK perpetrators fault

 

[Bad_azz]

Maybe someone will "Jessica" him?

 

[Teabag]

*I do realize the irony of an American going on about the threat of nuclear war, but I honestly don't believe the US would use nukes as anything other than retaliation for a nuclear strike.

Hmmm, your faith in honor HappyMan.... my two 71 years old friends 'FatMan' and 'Little Boy' see that different.

Their leader is threatening the rest of the world with nuclear war .* Is there a solution that doesn't make things worse for the NK people, and doesn't have their leader holding a nuclear weapon? Appeasement?

That is the difficult part of the story. In fact, you can do nothing which will not have scorched earth as a result.

 

[HappyMan]

We should do the same with the US if trump is elected... wait, hilarry too is hated, we should bomb the white house whatever who win the election. Problem solve!

We have plenty of very recent evidence of when a dictator fall the country don't become a heaven of peace the next day.
It is also in the kind of context that many of the today terrorist group are born.

You neglected to mention your solution for the problem of a nuclear NK. Apparently you have one that creates a "heaven of peace" the next day, so do share.

 

[HappyMan]

Hmmm, your faith in honor HappyMan.... my two 71 years old friends 'FatMan' and 'Little Boy' see that different.
That is the difficult part of the story. In fact, you can do nothing which will not have scorched earth as a result.

There is no honor to be gained by the answer to this question, but what do you think Japan and Germany would have done with nukes, had they developed them first, during WW2? Like everyone, I wish they did not exist, but they do, hence this little chat.

So, your solution, rather than a scorched earth policy, is to do nothing? If we must choose between various scorched earth policies, which holds the least culpability for the interfering country? To my mind, the people of NK would be at least partially responsible for any chaos ensuing after an assassination, theirs would be the hands scorching the earth. I know the result is the same, but the story is different.

When you look at the results of the Arab Spring, at the continued unrest and political dissent, they have been the fault of the citizens of those nations. Their failure to govern themselves and defend their own nations cannot be laid at the door of the West. Perhaps I am wrong, but I think this will speed them on their way to change, as much as anything can. Let them do it for themselves, rather than blame their failures on interlopers and develop a deeper hatred of the West.

There are two parts to the problem, the first is that NK has a leadership that is hostile to their peaceful neighbor. This is what makes the second part, their development of long range nuclear weapons such a threat. If either one of those parts goes away, we have a much smaller problem and no need for a preemptive intervention. Consider, by comparison, what the world would say if modern Japan decided to develop nuclear weapons. Would any of their neighbors be quaking in their boots? I doubt it.

 

[fastpitch17]

What to do with Kim? The people of N. Korea think he is god like through all the propaganda they are fed on a daily basis. He alone is their protector from the aggressors of the world that surrounds them. They are not likely to assassinate him.

So, who can take him out? The West or a neighboring country that sees the madman needs to be eliminated? Not likely with China still being a N. Korea backer of sorts. If Kim is eliminated by force it would cause a mad rush to the boarders and it would be China/Korea boarder. They won't go South because they have been taught that anyone who crossed that boarder was met with death at the hands of the aggressors. They would head to China and China just don't want them. China will do whatever they have to in order to not have this.

His generals take him out? Unlikely when a simple flintch of suspicion gets you in front of a anti aircraft gun or fed to the dogs. Very difficult to get close to him to carry out an assasination. A coup? People would rise up against them for removing their protector.

The only way to remove Kim is through some means that would cause his death that could be blamed on an excessive lifestyle. A cause the people can only relate to in a negative manor. The thing is, remove Kim and you still won't know what you're going to get. Could be worse or not.

 

[jstar]

He will probably have another mad fat nephew somewhere who can take over. Or the impersonator at the Olympic Games?

 

[PhilippeD]

You neglected to mention your solution for the problem of a nuclear NK. Apparently you have one that creates a "heaven of peace" the next day, so do share.

Searching for a solution that would work overnight is a problem.

Right now Trump could probably get as much affinity with the present South korean president(far right) than with kim.
A reunification is simply unthinkable presently.
All young Korean are mentally prepare (I think the have obligatory military service) that one day they would have to fight the north.

The best bet we could have is to have china working propaganda for defaming Kim and put a more good understanding of the present REAL world situation to the korean.
Why the china? They are mostly the only one to have access to the very reclusive north-korea... which border with china start to leak more and more.

and evantually, after a change of governance in the south, the reunification of the 2 korea.
That's not gonna happen tomorrow!

 

[PhilippeD]

added note:
The reason china should push for the runification of the korea which on a way would work against them: le moindre des maux (??? what hurt the less???)
North korea give more and more headache to china and start to be a pain in the ***for them.
It's simply not good for business to be affiliated with a pshyco-drama dictator

 

[jstar]

It's true, they had their own for 27 years or so.

Of course it's not really a cold war era anymore (although a Putin might be interested in going back in time). And esp. China wants prosperity and advancement for its population, no more isolation and dogma. But I wonder if China would ever push it and accept an additional USA partner so close to their borders. If they would get fed up and they can get rid of the raving madman, who knows?

 

[Davita]

I think there are some very nervous people watching this situation and some very rich people profiting from it too.
Let's hope it fizzles out to a damp squib.
I feel a bit too close for comfort if missiles are going to be flying.

If there are nuclear-loaded missiles flying around....living in Indonesia might be a safe place. Must be a reason the Komodo decided to live in Indonesia...they know things.

 

[Anglian]

China does not want a fairly democratic and prosperous country like South Korea, on its doors step, it will give the natives the totally wrong idea, and undermine their system, the Chinese must be having nightmares in case the north totally collapsed, sadly the little fat bastard serves the Chinese purpose in having a total barrier from western democratic influence