Elections, Intolerance and Identity Politics?

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Daniel50

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Is intolerance and identity politics on the rise in Indonesia? There are actors behind the scenes willing to use whatever for their personal wealth and power. I suppose none of that is new but with the lack of relatively clean police, courts, lawmakers etc. etc. etc., it can put some people in precarious positions. Will things get worse ahead of the upcoming elections? Is Indonesia heading in this direction or are these merely blips on the screen of same old same old?


http://jakartaglobe.id/news/intolerance-identity-politics-rise-ahead-2018-2019-elections-indonesia/
 
@Daniel50
I'm more worried of an economic meltdown happening again because it affects all people regardless of religion or politics. Just read in the newspapers of factories closing down and moving to Vietnam, joblessness could increase, we can see more people applying to be Go-Jek or Grab drivers, and more people selling food in the streets or opening food shops (most of them got laid-off and unable to find another job).
 
sul1995 said:
@Daniel50
I'm more worried of an economic meltdown happening again because it affects all people regardless of religion or politics. Just read in the newspapers of factories closing down and moving to Vietnam, joblessness could increase, we can see more people applying to be Go-Jek or Grab drivers, and more people selling food in the streets or opening food shops (most of them got laid-off and unable to find another job).
Click to expand...

So, what are some of the issues related to factory relocation and job loss? And how could this possible "economic meltdown" effect the broader society, including at election time?
 
Daniel50 said:
So, what are some of the issues related to factory relocation and job loss? And how could this possible "economic meltdown" effect the broader society, including at election time?
Click to expand...

Indonesia is losing its competitiveness, cost of production is high, see https://forum.expatindo.org/threads/government-business.3262/#post-45640. As to the news regarding factory relocation and job loss, see https://zona.co.id/10-500-tenaga-kerja-di-sidoarjo-terancam-dirumahkan/. This is just the tip of the iceberg, most companies closing-down are not reported. In Vietnam, wage is lower and the difference is about Rp.1 million per worker per month. So if PT. Ecco Indonesia has 7,500 workers, they will save Rp.7.5 billion per month just on salary alone. Not to mention that they may need less workers in Vietnam to do the same amount of work.

I was in Indonesia before, during, and after the economic meltdown of 1998. It may happen again, the question is when. I did not say it could happen at election time. What I am trying to say is, we have seen the horror of May 1998, and it happened not during election time but during an economic meltdown.
 
sul1995 said:
Indonesia is losing its competitiveness, cost of production is high, see https://forum.expatindo.org/threads/government-business.3262/#post-45640. As to the news regarding factory relocation and job loss, see https://zona.co.id/10-500-tenaga-kerja-di-sidoarjo-terancam-dirumahkan/. This is just the tip of the iceberg, most companies closing-down are not reported. In Vietnam, wage is lower and the difference is about Rp.1 million per worker per month. So if PT. Ecco Indonesia has 7,500 workers, they will save Rp.7.5 billion per month just on salary alone. Not to mention that they may need less workers in Vietnam to do the same amount of work.

I was in Indonesia before, during, and after the economic meltdown of 1998. It may happen again, the question is when. I did not say it could happen at election time. What I am trying to say is, we have seen the horror of May 1998, and it happened not during election time but during an economic meltdown.
Click to expand...

Your theory of doom and gloom about Indonesia's economic status seems to be in stark contrast to the World Bank's last financial report in December 2017.....
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/indonesia/publication/indonesia-economic-quarterly-december-2017

And Fitch upgraded Indonesia's credit rating on 21 Dec 2017....https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/reu...esia-cites-economys-resilience-to-shocks.html

Also, Moody said, only two weeks ago, it could upgrade Indonesia's credit rating soon....https://www.indonesia-investments.c...indonesia-s-sovereign-credit-rating/item8573?

I also noted that Indonesia's foreign reserve currency is now at US$132 Billion...which is quite healthy especially, as at the end of last year, they used some foreign reserves to pay down debt....
http://www.bi.go.id/en/ruang-media/siaran-pers/Pages/sp_201118.aspx
 
I believe there have been a few new parties created with a member of a certain clan financing them. Who knows how they will do or if they will gain traction. Also, I am sure the tentacles run deep with some old families, and a complex series of companies, who have been controlling a lot of wealth.etc. etc. I am sure things are complex because some people want it that way.

Based on what happened to Ahok, and in 1998, certain groups are not beyond getting scapegoated for economic, political or religious purposes.
 
Predicting the future is always a tricky game, but I'd have to agree more with Davita's bullish viewpoint on Indonesia. And by bullish, I mean to say there's a steady stream of new investment money flowing to places like Indonesia. Whether this trickles down to the average worker and creates more jobs is another story. So what's the theory behind this??

From several presentations I've seen by hedge fund managers (i.e. Blackrock Investment, DoubleLine Capital, etc.), they feel that the "party" is starting to be over with in the US equities market. As the US Fed keeps hinting at raising short term interest rates, and actually increases them incrementally, but more importantly starts unwinding their balance sheet of "easy money", equities are likely to start dropping in a meaningful way. Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine (who I find interesting) believes this will materialize mid-2018. The question is: where will all this money go? Into US treasury bonds? Maybe, but not likely. Keep in mind that a lot of cash inflows to the US is foreign based, and China is at the top of the pack. The core theory is that Chinese (also Japanese, Korean, German, etc) investors will unload their US based equities and look for other opportunities that are doing better than bonds - especially US bonds. They will likely turn their attention to places like India, Indonesia, and other Asian emerging markets. Here's a fairly recent article from Bloomberg regarding Indonesia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...esian-consumption-recovery-on-budget-stimulus

So back to the average worker, and the theory that things may get worse. I suppose it's a matter of perspective. With all this money piling into Indonesia, it's really a question of how will these companies manage their resources. As with any investment, there's an expectation on the return of that investment. If companies are looking outside Indonesia for a labor force, there's probably reasons for that. Do they have better training? Do they have a more efficient manufacturing process? There's a host of reasons, but it all gets back to the bottom line, and the CEO's desire to keep the investment money coming. Some will argue that this type of process creates dislocations of wealth - i.e. the rich get richer and the poor get poorer... I'm certainly keeping my eye on the social and political mood, as huge differences in a country's wealth distribution don't always end well - especially when the investments end. However, in the meantime Indonesia may become a hot spot for investment opportunities in the next year or two.
 
@Davita @Chiron

We have to look at how the credit rating agencies score each country. Indonesia’s credit rating is upgraded because the state of macroeconomics is good (microeconomics is bad though, but they don’t look at it). There is growth in the GDP due largely to massive infrastructure projects. The agencies also believe that Indonesia is more transparent now, so it helped Indonesia to borrow more money and Indonesia is doing the right thing in paying its debt (akin to digging a hole to cover another one). Statistical data is also favorable, but do you believe BPS? Anyway, microeconomics is bad and I’m not the only one saying it https://forum.expatindo.org/threads...onesia-good-while-microeconomics-is-bad.2709/

Foreign reserve currency is “healthy” aided by borrowings and limiting imports, for example corn and Chinese medicines to name just a few https://forum.expatindo.org/threads/government-business.3262/#post-44168 and https://forum.expatindo.org/threads/government-business.3262/#post-43468

The bulk of the investment money is going to the digital or service industry and infrastructure. How much is going into the export manufacturing industry? Indonesia needs labor intensive industries to provide jobs to a growing young population. On the contrary, Indonesia wants to go high tech and reduce manpower needs. But, is the timing right? For example, the toll roads, using eMoney means toll booth workers will be out-of-work. Indeed, the toll operators promise not to layoff any workers. However, where are they going to put all of them? Can they do road maintenance? Even if they can, there cannot be too many people in that department.
 
sul1995 said:
...In Vietnam, wage is lower and the difference is about Rp.1 million per worker per month......
...
Click to expand...

I don't know that much about Vietnam but I know some labour intensive Chinese businesses are moving to Vietnam their factories. Not only this happens because of lower wages but also lucrative trading deal that Vietnam-USA have? Perhaps it is this China - USA relationship if it goes down entrepreneurs can use "fallback switch" from Vietnam. Or perhaps import/export issues on both sides.
 
Daniel50 said:
Is intolerance and identity politics on the rise in Indonesia? There are actors behind the scenes willing to use whatever for their personal wealth and power. I suppose none of that is new but with the lack of relatively clean police, courts, lawmakers etc. etc. etc., it can put some people in precarious positions. Will things get worse ahead of the upcoming elections? Is Indonesia heading in this direction or are these merely blips on the screen of same old same old?


http://jakartaglobe.id/news/intolerance-identity-politics-rise-ahead-2018-2019-elections-indonesia/
Click to expand...
Dont worry bout it
Authorities are doing well on it. There are few sparks but only limited to certain places , specific places in Indonesia
Lets hope till 2019 we wont see any clowns playing funny games nor some 7 millions KKK marching on the street for Blasphemy case.....
 
The question is also if Prabowo will run in 2019. If so (because of Anies’ success) it could be nasty again...
 
Smallworld said:
I don't know that much about Vietnam but I know some labour intensive Chinese businesses are moving to Vietnam their factories. Not only this happens because of lower wages but also lucrative trading deal that Vietnam-USA have? Perhaps it is this China - USA relationship if it goes down entrepreneurs can use "fallback switch" from Vietnam. Or perhaps import/export issues on both sides.
Click to expand...

Maybe China wants to take advantage of AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area) ?
 
Last edited:
jstar said:
The question is also if Prabowo will run in 2019. If so (because of Anies’ success) it could be nasty again...
Click to expand...

Without a double-minority candidate, I don't think the coming Presidential election can be as nasty as the last Jakarta Gubernatorial election. BTW, nice to see you around again jstar.
 
Former Armed Forces Chief Gatot may run and he has more wealth than Prabowo according to Kivlan as reported here https://www.viva.co.id/berita/polit...o-disebut-punya-uang-banyak-buat-modal-capres

I wonder how much an Indonesian General can earn annually, and how much tax is he paying. This controversial General promoted or reassigned more than 80 officers a few hours before he was replaced by the current TNI Chief. Then days later there was a radio “blackout” in Jakarta, I thought something going on (as someone who had experienced coups before in another country). Later I realized it was intentional and just for 15 minutes. Radio operators in Jakarta agreed to go silent or off the air at the same time to make people aware of the importance of radio service. But some people are not informed about it, and got alarmed (like me) for a few minutes until some checking was done. Anyway, the new TNI Chief reversed the appointment of about 20 (forgot if it was less than 20 or more than 20) officers a few days or weeks later.
 
There's no doubt Indonesia works on money politics but if Gatot wishes to run he first needs to belong to a registered political party. I read, at this time, the only ones available to him are ...
1. Democratic Party. 2. National Awakening Party. 3. United Development Party.

In the 2014 DPR elections those three parties combined only had 32 Million voters. Jokowi won his Presidency with 72 Million votes and in 2019 will probably garner more as Kalla is unlikely to run and he didn't belong to any party.
 
sul1995 said:
Former Armed Forces Chief Gatot may run and he has more wealth than Prabowo according to Kivlan as reported here https://www.viva.co.id/berita/polit...o-disebut-punya-uang-banyak-buat-modal-capres

I wonder how much an Indonesian General can earn annually, and how much tax is he paying. This controversial General promoted or reassigned more than 80 officers a few hours before he was replaced by the current TNI Chief. Then days later there was a radio “blackout” in Jakarta, I thought something going on (as someone who had experienced coups before in another country). Later I realized it was intentional and just for 15 minutes. Radio operators in Jakarta agreed to go silent or off the air at the same time to make people aware of the importance of radio service. But some people are not informed about it, and got alarmed (like me) for a few minutes until some checking was done. Anyway, the new TNI Chief reversed the appointment of about 20 (forgot if it was less than 20 or more than 20) officers a few days or weeks later.
Click to expand...

If he really has more money than Prabowo (estimated at Rp 1 T), then he is significantly above average in productivity.
 
Davita said:
Here is Forbes 2017 list of 50 wealthiest Indonesians. From my looksee neither Prabowo nor Gatot are featured.......but # 37 caught my eye....and she's a widow.

https://www.forbes.com/indonesia-billionaires/#7153dd6d45b7
Click to expand...

The bottom of that list is still worth $450 million.

Here is a 2014 article that reports Prabowo's wealth at Rp 1.58 T and USD 7.5 million or about USD 120 million combined. The report comes from KPK disclosure forms filed in 2009 for election.

http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2061191/berapa-kekayaan-prabowo-yang-sebenarnya
 
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