DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[Balifrog]

It’s ironic. If everybody takes the vaccines, Covid will stop being a problem in a short time, then it will disappear for good like smallpox.

NOPE

See Israel.....

 

[gemima]

NOPE

See Israel.....

I dont think Israel is a good example. Yes they have a few very small new cases lately:

But it really is a tiny amount in the grand scheme of things.

Considering less than 70% of the country is VAXXed this was always going to happen:

There is a large segment of very religious people in Israel who refuse the vaxx and then the youth. These groups will mean that some virus will still break out but the overall story from there is overwhelmingly positive and shows that vaccines work (and would do even better if more people would take them).

 

[Balifrog]

Yesterday was the first day ever that Indonesia has been top of the infection charts and also the first day ever it has been top of the death charts:

View attachment 1898

Bon, first of all those stats should mention "Total cases REPORTED" same for deaths etc....
For me those numbers are close to worthless, only the excess deaths compared to the 5 previous years are representative of the problem.

But never mind, let's work with those "official" numbers :

Total cases 2,567,630 : 267,000,000 = 0,93 % of the population (less than 1 chance in 100 to catch it)

Total deaths : 67,355 : 267,000,000 = 0,025 % of the population. (less than 2,5 chance in 1000 to die from it)

You can do the same calculations with the other data.

Obviously those numbers are underestimated. I doubt that every village head of small villages in the jungle reports scrupulously every case (he doesn't want to see the "city authorities" swarm down on his village and lock it down...)

Anyway, at those "official rates" I'll take my chance.

Another thing :

ANY statistics that are made on health / medical issues are reset to zero at the start of a new year.
I mean, look up cancer statistics, malaria, heart problems, traffic deaths, etc... it's all year by year

But NO, for Covid, in order to have more dramatic looking numbers the official statistics keep accumulating, without a yearly reset ? Bizarre, bizarre......

Anyway, 11:00 am here, "aperitif" time !

 

[Balifrog]

There is a large segment of very religious people in Israel who refuse the vaxx and then the youth. These groups will mean that some virus will still break out but the overall story from there is overwhelmingly positive and shows that vaccines work (and would do even better if more people would take them).

Agreed, but it is still to early to have a DEFINITIVE view.

Remember that normally Phase 3 test for vaccines take several years. Not 3 or 6 months.

Israel did exceptionally good on the vaccine plan compared to other countries, but they still have problems. Of course less than "developing countries".

The "success" figures for all 1st world countries will only be significative end 2021 at earliest I think.

So I'll sit on the fence a bit longer and watch the drama.

 

[gemima]

Agreed, but it is still to early to have a DEFINITIVE view.

Remember that normally Phase 3 test for vaccines take several years. Not 3 or 6 months.

Israel did exceptionally good on the vaccine plan compared to other countries, but they still have problems. Of course less than "developing countries".

The "success" figures for all 1st world countries will only be significative end 2021 at earliest I think.

So I'll sit on the fence a bit longer and watch the drama.

I totally agree - but I'm hopeful that the Israel success will continue (despite their pockets of challenge in some areas). My only criticism of waiting to have a definitive view is that if everyone did that we'd never get to a point of having a definitive view so I'm relieved that many have opted to take the vaccines now even if they don't have years of safety data.
In my opinion, a vaccine is a tiny challenge to the human body - every day we encounter bigger ones and I don't understand people who smoke/ do drugs/ eat weird stuff/ having stuff injected into their bodies (boob jobs/ lip fillers) being scared of (or if not scared then reluctant) of a tiny vaccine prick

 

[Dave70]

Random thoughts...

In other countries, I saw medical workers wearing hazmat suit marked with their names on their back for easier identifications. In Indonesia, I don't see that. To prevent the suit being worn over and over again, or worse, sold as 'new', perhaps they should mark their names plus a date.

I heard some wear it for 2 days before washing and re-using it, is that the right practice? Do they have special rooms for undressing contaminated suits?

If medical workers go home everyday from work, is there bigger risk of infecting their families and neighbors? They may be vaccinated, but they can still carry the virus and infect others. And everyday they face bombardment of viruses in their workplace, can their "fortress" withstand (without adequate defense like PPE and strictly following WHO standard practice)?

Government is adding hospital beds, even using unused apartment buildings. Is there enough medical workers? Can they mobilize workers from less affected provinces?

 

[Balifrog]

I totally agree - but I'm hopeful that the Israel success will continue (despite their pockets of challenge in some areas). My only criticism of waiting to have a definitive view is that if everyone did that we'd never get to a point of having a definitive view so I'm relieved that many have opted to take the vaccines now even if they don't have years of safety data.
In my opinion, a vaccine is a tiny challenge to the human body - every day we encounter bigger ones and I don't understand people who smoke/ do drugs/ eat weird stuff/ having stuff injected into their bodies (boob jobs/ lip fillers) being scared of (or if not scared then reluctant) of a tiny vaccine prick

You DID make a point here !

But my personal answer would be a bit complicated, and the replies would probably eat all the bandwidth of the forum for the next hours, so I'll stick with the "aperitif" !

 

[gemima]

You DID make a point here !

But my personal answer would be a bit complicated, and the replies would probably eat all the bandwidth of the forum for the next hours, so I'll stick with the "aperitif" !

Enjoy! I might do the same myself

 

[snpark]

Yay Indonesia #1 in the world!

 

[Nimbus]

Another thing :

ANY statistics that are made on health / medical issues are reset to zero at the start of a new year.
I mean, look up cancer statistics, malaria, heart problems, traffic deaths, etc... it's all year by year

But NO, for Covid, in order to have more dramatic looking numbers the official statistics keep accumulating, without a yearly reset ? Bizarre, bizarre......

Anyway, 11:00 am here, "aperitif" time !

The “dramatic” part and the implied conspiracy is just your opinion.

Covid is an epidemic, just like Ebola. They track cases cumulatively to get a full picture of the impact, because they expect to contain the disease at some point. We shouldn’t expect Covid to last for a long time, we can’t afford to.

Cancer, heart disease, stroke, and diabetes are here to stay, so they are tracked yearly just like other causes of death, namely accidents, suicide, homicide, etc. Curing cancer is not likely without gene therapy, while the other diseases require change in lifestyle and diet. Getting people to exercise more and eat less is even harder than getting them vaccinated.

Cancer, like car accidents, is a fact of life. It just happens.

 

[ChrisTex]

Surely the testing places have to report positives to the government?

You can self test and not report it. However if it is an official place, they would need to report it even if muck it up ie false positives. I know from experience of being mucked around with a false positive.

 

[Vulgarian]

But never mind, let's work with those "official" numbers :

Total cases 2,567,630 : 267,000,000 = 0,93 % of the population (less than 1 chance in 100 to catch it)

Total deaths : 67,355 : 267,000,000 = 0,025 % of the population. (less than 2,5 chance in 1000 to die from it)

You can do the same calculations with the other data.

A mathematical approach, I see. OK, let's think about that a bit more.

We could drill down into that percentage chance in more detail. Not everyone is behaving the same way, for example. Person A is staying at home all the time, while Person B is out sucking the tongue of anyone who gets too close. So that 1% chance isn't the same for everyone.

Have you heard of a "micromort"? It's a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of dying on any given day. Everyday life has a risk of about 24 micromorts (so a 24 in 1,000,000) chance of dying. Doing a skydive, for example, adds 8 micromorts to that day. It's a way of visualising the risks that we take on every day.

The microCOVID Project website builds on this idea. It defines a microCOVID as a 1 in a million chance of catching covid. It assumes you have a "risk budget" - a total amount of risk you're willing to take per day - and uses current covid data in your location to see how much of your risk budget an activity would take.

MicroCovid calculator - https://www.microcovid.org/

Admittedly this is back-of-an-envelope stuff, but they've sourced their data, told us what values they're using and why. If you want to dig into their workings, you can look here - https://www.microcovid.org/paper/1-intro

Here's an example. Say you went to a friend's house to watch the Euro Final the other night. There were 10 of you, outside, 1m apart, all wearing good masks and shouting (hey, it's the final and the referee's a wanker). This would be classed as a high risk activity, 60% of your weekly risk budget in this 3-hour get-together - https://www.microcovid.org/?distanc...topLocation=Indonesia&voice=loud&yourMask=n95

... but let's be honest. No one's wearing a mask because you're eating and drinking (heavily, if you support England). This would be classed as a dangerously high risk - 10 week's worth of your risk budget - https://www.microcovid.org/?distanc...opLocation=Indonesia&voice=loud&yourMask=none

Like I said, there's a lot of approximation going on there, but it's an interesting tool to play around with.

Edit: Links are hard. Sod it - this is good enough

 

[gemima]

The latest reformasi dispatch is sobering listening re the outbreak of covid right now - not sure if anyone listens to this? They release a pod weekly:

Google Podcasts is no longer available

podcasts.google.com

 

[dafluff]

If, God forbid, you need to locate a Covid-19 hospital near you quickly, you may want to bookmark this link. It is the Health Ministry's app that lists available beds by region/hospital. Note, the app is updated as hospitals update their tally, and some may not be as quick as others, so information is not 100% accurate at all times.

Siranap

yankes.kemkes.go.id

 

[nd_eric_77]

If, God forbid, you need to locate a Covid-19 hospital near you quickly, you may want to bookmark this link. It is the Health Ministry's app that lists available beds by region/hospital. Note, the app is updated as hospitals update their tally, and some may not be as quick as others, so information is not 100% accurate at all times.

Siranap

yankes.kemkes.go.id

Thank you very much for the link; hopefully, I will not need it! The numbers in Jakarta & Banten are terrifying.

 

[dafluff]

Thank you very much for the link; hopefully, I will not need it! The numbers in Jakarta & Banten are terrifying.

Yeah, if you don't want to get depressed, it's probably better not to browse that app looking at cities in Java right now...

 

[El_Goretto]

Looking at the app, I can see that covid beds are mostly full with huge lines. But Non-covid beds are still plenty. Surely if push comes to shove the hospitals could extend their covid-19 facilities rather than let people die on the streets, no?

 

[Bad_azz]

A report that Ivermectin has been approved by the govt for emergency Covid treatment

BPOM Setujui Ivermectin untuk Pengobatan Covid-19 - TIMES Indonesia

Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan (BPOM) akhirnya menyetujui Ivermectin sebagai salah satu obat penggunaan darurat atau Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) sebagai obat yang mendukung penanganan terapi Covid-19.

www.timesindonesia.co.id

 

[dafluff]

Looking at the app, I can see that covid beds are mostly full with huge lines. But Non-covid beds are still plenty. Surely if push comes to shove the hospitals could extend their covid-19 facilities rather than let people die on the streets, no?

There will be some adjustment, but just because Covid is booming, that doesn't mean that other diseases have stopped. You can't mix Covid patients in the same room as cancer patients or heart patients, etc.

Also, people dying in the streets (and at home) is already happening.

23 Pasien Covid-19 Jaktim Meninggal di Rumah Dievakuasi

Sebanyak 23 jenazah pasien Covid-19 yang meninggal di rumah lebih dari sepekan dievakuasi dengan kendaraan dinas.

www.cnnindonesia.com

Di Tengah Keterbatasan, Satu Per Satu Warga Miskin Jakarta Meninggal Saat Isolasi Mandiri

Di wilayah padat penduduk Penjaringan, satu tabung oksigen yang didapatkan dari Sandiyawan digunakan bergilir oleh warga setempat.

megapolitan.kompas.com

Pasien Covid-19 yang Dibawa Meninggal, Relawan Sopir Ambulans Menyesal: Saya Merasa Gagal Membantu

'Karena saya tidak punya uang, jadi saya membantu dengan tenaga. Pokoknya bondone semangat tok ae lah,' kata Sutoko relawan sopir ambulans di Sidoarjo

regional.kompas.com

 

[Balifrog]

Looking at the app, I can see that covid beds are mostly full with huge lines. But Non-covid beds are still plenty. Surely if push comes to shove the hospitals could extend their covid-19 facilities rather than let people die on the streets, no?

Staffing may be a problem.

Specially for patients under respiratory assistance or in ICU, who require more staff per patient, and specially qualified.