DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

[make_batik_great_again]

Do you have a dry cough?

If not, then a common disease around here where you feel horrible one day, everything is painful, high fever, then somewhat better the next, then a back to fever the next day is Dengue, which is also currently having outbreaks throughout Indonesia.

Yes, cough and temporary also runny nose. The latter, from what I read, makes Corona a bit less likely.

 

[dafluff]

One can never trust any sort of diagnosis from an indonesian facility.

Right now there aren't really any other options...most countries have suspended flights, etc...

Interestingly, I was reading about how homeopathy became popular. For those don't know, homeopathy claims that you can cure disease with water that has nothing in it (a placebo). It became popular in the 1800s, when the current brand of medicine was still in infancy, and prescribing things such as arsenic.

So naturally, those that were treated with a placebo were much better off than those that were treated with arsenic.

I feel this is similar to how tribal healers, and jamu potions etc that are popular here, when compared to hospitals those things may indeed have a larger success rate.

 

[dafluff]

We can see that unlike what some(one) here stated, things did change. And it was already 6 days ago!

Of course it’s not completely clear what the cause of death was. But if the condition of the person was already bad, the fact someone infected is ‘outside’ and posing a risk to others is already worrying. People don’t follow instructions and advice.

It seems one of the two Singaporean fatalities is an Indonesian?

I'm a bit perplexed by the fact that the guy was apparently strong enough to get on a motorcycle (did he manage to drive it somewhere?), but then die on it.

Yes, one of the Singaporean fatalities was the Indonesian man who was "diagnosed" with pneumonia at a local hospital here, escaped to Singapore to be diagnosed properly. Unfortunately it didn't help him in the end.

 

[dafluff]

Yes, cough and temporary also runny nose. The latter, from what I read, makes Corona a bit less likely.

Dengue normally doesn't present with cough or runny nose....hope you feel better soon!

 

[harryopal1]

" homeopathy claims that you can cure disease with water that has nothing in it (a placebo). ....

Not quite nothing and you might say I am splitting hairs but....
"homeopaths, believe that a substance that causes symptoms of a disease in healthy people would cure similar symptoms in sick people; this doctrine is called similia similibus curentur, or "like cures like".[5] Homeopathic preparations are termed remedies and are made using homeopathic dilution. In this process, a chosen substance is repeatedly and thoroughly diluted. The final product is chemically indistinguishable from the diluent, which is usually either distilled water, ethanol or sugar; often, not even a single molecule of the original substance can be expected to remain in the product.[6] Between the dilution iterations homeopaths practice hitting and/or violently shaking the product, and claim that it makes the diluent remember the original substance after its removal. Practitioners claim that such preparations, upon oral intake, can treat or cure disease.[7] (Wikipedia.)

So theoretically there is a minute trace of a material which would cause sickness in a larger dose. Or perhaps a "memory" of the trace material. It's supposed effectiveness probably relates to a process where it was less likely to cause harm than many of the medicines or drugs otherwise used.

 

[dafluff]

Some more news on the hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) front:

A team of scientists at University of Minnesota are going to start a trial soon to use this as a preventative drug. This makes perfect sense if we review what we know about HCQ being a Zinc ionophore (allows Zinc absorption into a cell), and that Zinc inside the cell inhibits SARS-COV2 reproduction. Basically, if you already have Zinc inside your cells before exposure to the virus, the virus can not even gain a foothold in your body.

Also HCQ is currently already being used as a preventative for malaria, with a recommended intake starting 2 weeks before travelling to a malaria endemic area continuing 8 weeks after exposure to malaria.

I am definitely keeping an eye out for this study. The hypothesis that they're trying to test is if they can reduce the amount of people getting sick by 50% on people with high risk of getting it (people in contact with a covid-19 case).

Preventing coronavirus: U of M seeks 1,500 volunteers to try anti-malarial drug

MINNEAPOLIS — More than a week ago, David Boulware had a eureka moment. The professor of medicine at the University of Minnesota thought to himself — what if a common, inexpensive, “old school” anti-malaria pill could help prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus?

www.duluthnewstribune.com

 

[dafluff]

So theoretically there is a minute trace of a material which would cause sickness in a larger dose. Or perhaps a "memory" of the trace material.

There really isn't. Here is a James Randi explaining why:


PS: I'm really sorry for dragging homeopathy into this thread...if there is any interest on discussing this, I will split this off to another thread.

 

[jstar]

the unthinkable is already here.

And another case.

A Russian citizen was found dead in Denpasar. According to his wife he was working as an electronics repair man. He did not leave the kost often, they brought the devices to him.

Five days ago he was complaining about a headache and got a fever two days ago. The spouse found him dead after cooking. Still waiting for the test results.

 

[harryopal1]

Dafluff. Point taken. I have heard Randi before but not on homeopathy. I am no proponent for homeopathy but had thought that the so called medicines had a diluted element in whatever was offered.

 

[fastpitch17]

I had my temperature checked too at the entrance of Lotte. My driver who was parking got it too a few minutes after me. I was 35,5 while he was 34. I couldn't retain a huge smile and the results apparently surprised or alerted none of the Lotte staff. I hope the ventilators work a bit better.

Spent Mon - Wed in Jakarta and Tangerang. Got checked for temp most everywhere. At Champaka ITC I was 33.6. same for my wife. Had to wonder why the most kampung stop we made were reading so low or why they were allowing in a walking corpse. My guess is they didn't want to turn potential sales away. I stayed clear of as many people as I could. Funny how if you are standing alone, within seconds there will be someone standing right next to you. Did a lot of side stepping. Most more upscale places had me at around mid 36s.
Tomorrow I'll be going out into Bandar Lampung and see what has changed with people out or not. Doing a grocery run only. Days of eating out 5 times a week have come to a temporary stop.
Can't find a single mask here now in Jakarta or Tangerang. Will probably just use a scarf or bandana. Probably just as effective. Alcohol sanitizer goes everywhere with us.

 

[Bad_azz]

Spent Mon - Wed in Jakarta and Tangerang. Got checked for temp most everywhere. At Champaka ITC I was 33.6. same for my wife. Had to wonder why the most kampung stop we made were reading so low or why they were allowing in a walking corpse. My guess is they didn't want to turn potential sales away. I stayed clear of as many people as I could. Funny how if you are standing alone, within seconds there will be someone standing right next to you. Did a lot of side stepping. Most more upscale places had me at around mid 36s.
Tomorrow I'll be going out into Bandar Lampung and see what has changed with people out or not. Doing a grocery run only. Days of eating out 5 times a week have come to a temporary stop.
Can't find a single mask here now in Jakarta or Tangerang. Will probably just use a scarf or bandana. Probably just as effective. Alcohol sanitizer goes everywhere with us.

Hubby has kept asking me to teach him how to use the sewing machine- I just found the perfect lesson for him:

https://www.deaconess.com/How-to-make-a-Face-Mask

 

[Orestes]

Spent Mon - Wed in Jakarta and Tangerang. Got checked for temp most everywhere. At Champaka ITC I was 33.6. same for my wife. Had to wonder why the most kampung stop we made were reading so low or why they were allowing in a walking corpse. My guess is they didn't want to turn potential sales away. I stayed clear of as many people as I could. Funny how if you are standing alone, within seconds there will be someone standing right next to you. Did a lot of side stepping. Most more upscale places had me at around mid 36s.
Tomorrow I'll be going out into Bandar Lampung and see what has changed with people out or not. Doing a grocery run only. Days of eating out 5 times a week have come to a temporary stop.
Can't find a single mask here now in Jakarta or Tangerang. Will probably just use a scarf or bandana. Probably just as effective. Alcohol sanitizer goes everywhere with us.

We are in self isolation for two weeks now. Just one weekly run to the supermarket taking into account all precautions. Today I was pleasantly surprised to see a satpam at the entrance of the supermarket spraying handsanitizer on the hands of each customers entering. However, when leaving I had to ask for handsanitizer myself. When I pointed at the handlebar of the trolley I just put away, he cheered up and started smearing a load of handsanitizer on the handlebar with his bare hands (no tissue needed)...

 

[dafluff]

And another case.

A Russian citizen was found dead in Denpasar. According to his wife he was working as an electronics repair man. He did not leave the kost often, they brought the devices to him.

Five days ago he was complaining about a headache and got a fever two days ago. The spouse found him dead after cooking. Still waiting for the test results.

View attachment 1354

Of course the real story could be something else, but a headache 5 days prior and fever 2 days prior to death doesn't sound like Covid-19 to me.

 

[dafluff]

Cases just broke the 300k mark. It took over 2 months to get to the first 100k, 12 more days to get to 200k, and a mere 5 days to get to 300k.

Some of that is obviously due to increased testing, but still....

 

[dafluff]

An interesting statement today from The British Association of Otorhinolaryngology. They said that loss of smell is a symptom of Covid-19, and it presents even in otherwise mild cases or even in asymptomatic cases.

This could be used as a screening tool for asymptomatic patients, who otherwise do not qualify for a test kit, and to instruct such patients to self-isolate.

https://www.entuk.org/loss-sense-smell-marker-covid-19-infection

There’s An Unexpected Loss Of Smell And Taste In Coronavirus Patients

One of the most unusual symptoms of coronavirus (COVID19) infection is the loss of a sense of smell and taste.

www.forbes.com

 

[El_Goretto]

An interesting statement today from The British Association of Otorhinolaryngology. They said that loss of smell is a symptom of Covid-19, and it presents even in otherwise mild cases or even in asymptomatic cases.

This could be used as a screening tool for asymptomatic patients, who otherwise do not qualify for a test kit, and to instruct such patients to self-isolate.

https://www.entuk.org/loss-sense-smell-marker-covid-19-infection

There’s An Unexpected Loss Of Smell And Taste In Coronavirus Patients

One of the most unusual symptoms of coronavirus (COVID19) infection is the loss of a sense of smell and taste.

www.forbes.com

Wasn't there an apocalypse movie about the human race losing their senses one after another? Started with smell, and then taste and so on.

 

[dafluff]

The count today in Indonesia:

Cases: 514 (+64), deaths 48 (+10), recoveries 29 (+9)

This makes Indonesia the country with the worst death rate at over 9%. This is most likely due to lack of testing (not detecting many cases), but probably also due to poor quality of care.

 

[Balifrog]

The count today in Indonesia:

Cases: 514 (+64), deaths 48 (+10), recoveries 29 (+9)

This makes Indonesia the country with the worst death rate at over 9%. This is most likely due to lack of testing (not detecting many cases), but probably also due to poor quality of care.

As those numbers are simply an equation of "number of tests : number of death" it is meaningless. Simply because the number of tests is ridiculy low, and hence inflates the result.

Plus of course all the cases and deaths in rural areas being not reported (grandma passes away, cremated, declared natural death) and the quality of medical care.
I am also VERY sceptical about the numbers out of China.

 

[dafluff]

As those numbers are simply an equation of "number of tests : number of death" it is meaningless. Simply because the number of tests is ridiculy low, and hence inflates the result.

Yes, I even said that in the post? High death rate is likely because of under-testing / under-counting cases.

That said it is much harder to hide deaths than it is to under-count cases. Also I doubt there are already very many rural deaths. The disease first arrived in large urban centers because that's where the airports are. Then from there it has to spread to rural areas, which don't really have much traffic to large cities as a rule (ie. people don't go to the kampungs everyday, they go back once a year during Lebaran). Even then, cases that were transferred to a rural area will only cause a localized outbreak.

 

[Chiron]

Some interesting news came out recently that might help shape and define the epidemic spread. This is the so-called antibody test that research scientists have been working on, and is described here in this article.

Essentially, the antibody test would be a quick procedure from a pinprick blood sample, and be able to tell you if you've ever had the SARS-CoV-2 virus by detecting the presence of the antibody for that pathogen. Test sites could perform up to several thousand tests per day if fully scaled up. It's apparently quite accurate and precise. This new antibody test was posted on March 18, and is already being used in New York City to better understand how quickly the antibodies are developed as described in this more detailed article.

After reading about this a couple days ago, I starting thinking about how it might be used, and what might be the benefits and implications. For starters, it would help identify those who already had the disease, and in essence are immune to acquiring it and spreading any further. It could also determine those who are active, but asymptomatic. Not sure how that would be implemented, but would be the subject of another thread after the test becomes available... This SCMP article claims that classified Chinese data showed that nearly a third of the people who contracted the virus, were asymptomatic and thus "silent carriers". If the research being done in New York finds out that antibodies kick-in during some short period of time (for example 3-4 days), then those who were exposed could be quickly tested to see whether or not they need a full 14 day quarantine. This could be helpful for critical medical care staff and others that need to be back in action. Or possibly, something you have to do before boarding a plane, or part of the immigration/customs process. Who knows.

The articles talk about this being able to scale up pretty quickly. I also imagine that it would be much less expensive, and very easy to administer. Sort of like getting a blood sugar test. One pinprick, blood drop goes into a vial, shake it, wait a few minutes, and see what color it comes out to be. You might still have to get a PCR test, but that would only show results if you're actively shedding the virus - since that is an antigen test. The antibody test could be distributed far and wide to remote clinics, and other places lacking sophisticated lab facilities. This might help places like Indonesia (and other countries) that are facing challenges with the PCR test.