Bali's Gunung Agung Alert Level Raised

[Anglian]

Well, just felt another tremor, third one I felt in three days. I am located quite a bit farther from Gunung Agung than the 12 km exclusion zone, so I'm probably only feeling the larger ones.

Also:



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/26/bali-volcano-eruption-seismic-activity-mount-agung

That doesn't sound too comforting, hope you are far enough away

 

[Puspawarna]

Here's another good link with info about what's going on:

http://big-volcanic.com/agung-volca...here-is-what-to-expect-from-the-bali-volcano/

 

[Davita]

I'm about 40 miles from Mount Agung but just felt a couple of bumps and my wife's friends living nearby confirmed they also felt it...I'd think the eruption is imminent.

 

[Puspawarna]

Is there any way to know more or less "live" if the thing has gone off?

I have the USGS map honed in on Indonesia right now, but that reports earthquakes of a magnitude 4.0 or higher, so it isn't a reliable source of information for this.

 

[gemima]

Is there any way to know more or less "live" if the thing has gone off?

I have the USGS map honed in on Indonesia right now, but that reports earthquakes of a magnitude 4.0 or higher, so it isn't a reliable source of information for this.

I use an app on my phone (android) called Volcanoes & Earthquakes which is pretty good at updating "live". You can choose what sorts of eruptions/ quakes you are interesting in being notified about (withing a specific distance).

 

[dafluff]

Is there any way to know more or less "live" if the thing has gone off?

I have the USGS map honed in on Indonesia right now, but that reports earthquakes of a magnitude 4.0 or higher, so it isn't a reliable source of information for this.

I'm pretty sure I will find out live...

The earthquake from earlier was a 4.2 apparently. It was definitely stronger than any of the earlier ones.

https://coconuts.co/bali/news/4-2-earthquake-shakes-karangasem-bali-amid-volcano-eruption-fears/amp/

 

[dafluff]

That doesn't sound too comforting, hope you are far enough away

Thanks! I *should* be. I'm in Gianyar regency. My guess is I will feel more tremors, including when it goes off, and possibly hear it also. But I am far enough away to not be affected by the deadly lava, lahars, and other gases. Winds aloft in Bali are either East or West depending on season, so I'm hoping I will be spared most of the ashes also.

The concern though is mostly what happens if it is a prolonged eruption: will water / food supplies be enough if roads are covered in ash for a few days / weeks? Will electricity stay on, and if it doesn't how long before it can be restored?

I read somewhere earlier that you can expect up to 1.5 m of ash in the 12 km radius, and up to 40 cm as far as 30 km out. I'm pretty sure 40 cm of ash will put traffic into a stand still until it is cleared, which could be days.

 

[Puspawarna]

I'm pretty sure I will find out live...

Be sure to post IMMEDIATELY if you're sure something happened.

 

[ChrisTex]

When this volcano erupts, will it have the same affect as the volcano in Iceland that caused travel problems in Europe in 2010(?)?

 

[Davita]

The current prevailing winds are from the ESE and SE, and quite strong, so if any ash we shouldn't get much in the South. The winds are predicted to turn more from the South over the next month.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/indonesia/denpasar/ext

 

[dafluff]

When this volcano erupts, will it have the same affect as the volcano in Iceland that caused travel problems in Europe in 2010(?)?

It's really hard to predict these with any accuracy. The 1963 eruption turned Surabaya (~320km away) dark, so I think air travel problems will be almost guaranteed for a while, particularly for Bali and neighboring islands.

 

[Davita]

All signs predict the volcano will erupt soon.

Last night I watched a National Geography program of when St. Helens (near Seattle) erupted in May 1980. The prediction of its eruption was correct but what was missing was the mountain blew out sideways, and not vertical, as all research had indicated. The fall-out from the eruption then went way-past the danger zone and 57 people, outside of the zone, died. I think the debris and lava/mud flow went as far as 35 kms. in one direction and virtually zero in the other.

I don't believe there are signs of a similarity with Mt. Agung, and monitoring today is more sophisticated, so the predicted danger area is probably correct....we shall see.

 

[Anglian]

I did read somewhere that the airport at Bali had buses on standby to transport passengers to an operating airport should Bali airport be shut due volcanic ash
When I worked on B737-200s here I noticed that the engine nose spinners and wing leading edges were eroding due volcanic ash, I asked Boeing if they could recommend a fix, they recommended a tape for the wing leading edges and an erosion resistant paint for the spinners, both failed miserably, so back to Boeing, I told them their suggestions had failed, their answer, "Don't fly in Indonesia"

 

[Puspawarna]

For anyone wishing to donate to help provide a better living situation for all the people who have been evacuated, here is a link (in English):

https://kopernik.info/project/mount-agung-emergency-response

And here is an excerpt from an email from someone on the ground in Bali who is working on relief efforts:

We r trying to get nazara water filters in the camps. Too many donations of one use water glasses n noodles. But in some sites loads of veggies. We r working on sanitation issues n building toilets. The govt is doing what it can. Pls remember that indonesia is , unfortunately, used to disaster management. Jokowi was here yesterday n donated a big pile of money. Hopefully that will manifest into toilets n livelihood options for those displaced
The community effort here is mind blowing

 

[Euc-]

Unfortunately it is already affecting business in hotels. I was invited to a conference in Nusa Dua early November and just received word that they've relocated the event to Malaysia out of fear for an eruption which would disrupt flights to and from the island. This was a big conference who booked-out a huge 5-star in Bali, so that must hurt someone, somewhere.

I'm also hearing from people in the industry that hotel bookings are down, especially from last-minute Australian bookings.

 

[vocalneal]

I'm also hearing from people in the industry that hotel bookings are down, especially from last-minute Australian bookings.

Strange that. If one could afford it , I think being there when the volcano erupted would be an experience one could use as a topic on conversation for the rest of one's life.

 

[Puspawarna]

If one could afford it , I think being there when the volcano erupted would be an experience one could use as a topic on conversation for the rest of one's life.

You aren't the first person to think so.

 

[dafluff]

https://www.windy.com/-8.686,115.258,9

Good wind visualization map. It is indeed blowing from the SE, and is predicted to do so for sometime.

 

[Anglian]

Strange that. If one could afford it , I think being there when the volcano erupted would be an experience one could use as a topic on conversation for the rest of one's life.

Assuming of course you survive, still good story for your surviving relative, seriously though I'm sure it will be impressive, I think the film of the side of a volcano blowing out does leave more than a lasting impression as the volcano that blew at the US Air Force base in the Philippines was equally impressive, but I'm sure the super volcano at Yellow sone park should blow I'm sure nobody will be around to film that

 

[dafluff]

Just another bump, probably as hard as the one yesterday. Did you feel it @Davita ?