Bali's Gunung Agung Alert Level Raised

[Puspawarna]

At first I wanted to click funny... but then I realised it wasn't funny.
One day the human virus will realise it cannot control the planet & maybe sit back and enjoy it without destruction... I can but dream.

Actually, as a gedankenexperiment, "what would happen if we threw a bomb in a volcano?" is pretty funny - and obviously a well-covered topic. When I googled it, I thought the XKCD guy's take on it would come up (I am pretty sure he has addressed this); I didn't realize it was such a popular question that there would be a ton of hits.

The sad part is that humans created the bombs in the first place

 

[dafluff]

Latest tremor chart show decrease in tremors, however experts warn that this alone is one facet of the data. Other data points such as the volcano's inflation (literally, it is getting physically bigger) is still increasing, and as such the alert level remains at the highest level.

"We can not rely on momentary data to determine the status of Mount Agung, we must use comprehensive data including seismic, deformation, geochemistry and satellite imaging", said head of Vulcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center, Kasbani.

https://www.esdm.go.id/id/media-cen...-bukan-dari-saya-tapi-dari-gunung-itu-sendiri

 

[Puspawarna]

Interesting! Thanks for keeping us updated.

 

[Vanhelsing]

I read many villagers are now heading back home to tend to crops, gardens and temples.

 

[William King]

Interesting! Thanks for keeping us updated.

Agreed.

 

[dafluff]

Hearing some breaking news that the alert level was reduced to 3 just now by the PVMBG. The exclusion zone also lowered to 7.5 km. No official update on any sites yet tho.

 

[Davita]

Google translate from...TRIBUN-BALI.COM-

PVMBG has announced the latest status of Mount Agung, Sunday (29/10/2017) this afternoon.
From the results of his analysis, the status of Mount Agung was lowered.
Until now, a press conference related to the decline in the status of Mount Agung is still ongoing at the Post Monitor Mount Agung in Rendang, Karangasem.
Related to the decline of the status, PVMBG set a recommendation radius of 6 kilometers from the summit crater for any community activity.
As is known, up to 37 days since the status set Away Mount Agung has not seen any signs of an eruption.
The amount of seismicity continues to decline, but deformation is relatively stable.
In the last week span, the seismicity caused by volcanic activity of Gunung Agung has decreased dramatically.
The earthquake decreases from an average of 900 to 300 times per day, becoming stable at 70 to 100 times per day.
However, the decline in the number of earthquakes was not followed by a decrease in deformation (bulging) of the physical Mount Agung.
The history of deformation of Mount Agung over the last few years. During 2007 to 2009 Gunung Agung had deformation up to 15 cm, then down to 7 cm and there was no deformation until 2017.

It's the Balinese festival of Galungan and Kuningan next week so the volcano is allowing people to return and visit family and temples.

 

[harryopal1]

Have a family that were to visit Bali at the end of December for 5 days but as of yesterday they couldn't get travel insurance so backed off. At what level then does the perceived danger drop enough for insurers to again provide travel insurance? A fairly critical question for the Balinese economy.

 

[dafluff]

Link from Tribun-Bali (above news item) :http://bali.tribunnews.com/2017/10/...g-pengungsi-di-lokasi-ini-belum-boleh-kembali

The exclusion zone still includes 4 villages with an estimated 47 thousand people. Hopefully they will be able to return soon as well.

I just received the official letter from PVMBG via Whatsapp so it is true. However it also cautions,

2. Meskipun status aktivitas Gunungapi Agung telah diturunkan ke Level III (Siaga) namun perlu dipahami bersama bahwa aktivitas vulkanik Gunungapi Agung belum mereda sepenuhnya dan masih memiliki potensi untuk meletus.

Even though Agung's activity have been reduced to level 3, but it should be understood that Agung's vulcanic activity has not subsided completely and still has potential to erupt.

 

[Davita]

Have a family that were to visit Bali at the end of December for 5 days but as of yesterday they couldn't get travel insurance so backed off. At what level then does the perceived danger drop enough for insurers to again provide travel insurance? A fairly critical question for the Balinese economy.

I just did a dummy insurance quote on Allianz, Australia for a weeks trip to Bali next week and it offered three plans. For around 50 bucks it offered cancellation fees and extra expenses due to delays plus all the other medical insurance etc....
https://travel.allianz.com.au/allia...47fd-d7dd-49b6-ad1b-38aee478e028&session=true

 

[Davita]

Have a family that were to visit Bali at the end of December for 5 days but as of yesterday they couldn't get travel insurance so backed off. At what level then does the perceived danger drop enough for insurers to again provide travel insurance? A fairly critical question for the Balinese economy.

https://www.finder.com.au/travel-insurance-direct-reinstates-cover-for-mount-agung-in-bali

 

[Vanhelsing]

Hundreds of locals took to praying around Agung's caldera today.

https://coconuts.co/bali/news/253-l...even-volcano-remains-standby-status-eruption/

 

[dafluff]

This woke me up just 20 mins ago:

 

[dafluff]

Here is better picture. Mount Agung is the orange volcano icon, signifying a level 3 alert.

 

[scouser59]

Strong quake !

 

[Davita]

No news about Gunung Agung but there's an interesting interview of a Harvard Professor on Fareed Zakaria's show on CNN.
He said that volcanoes help to cool the planet. He said they produce sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere which turn into particles and reflect the suns radiation backwards.
He figured the volcano in the Philippines (Mount Pinatuba 1991) caused the earth to cool down for a little over a year.
His idea is to get aircraft flying in the upper atmosphere to eject aerosol spray to create particles to block radiation and help to decrease global warming.

Maybe Agung will blow soon and cool us down.

 

[harryopal1]

Great idea and maybe that would work ... or maybe not. Here's a not disimilar idea put out some while ago. This from "live science.com. :

"The cooling effect on the Earth's climate can be seen after a volcanic eruption, which can spew millions of tons of sulfur into the atmosphere. Some scientists have suggested that we mimic nature and inject a bunch of sulfur into the atmosphere to counteract global warming. One problem with this plan is the increased amount of acid rain this would generate. "

Another idea reported from the same source. "Because iron stimulates phytoplankton growth, some people have suggesting fertilizing parts of the ocean with iron to create huge plankton blooms to suck up some of the excess carbon dioxide we've emitted into the atmosphere. Several private companies have attempted ventures to dump iron into the ocean to sell carbon credits, but many scientists question just how effective the massive blooms are at trapping and storing carbon. Environmental groups have also warned that iron dumps may harm the local marine ecosystems."

Let's do both. All those in favour raise our hands.

Australia is still trying to work out how to unpick problems related to the "scientific" release of cane toads in the 1930s to deal with white grub problems in sugar cane. The cane toads continue spreading across Australia leaving a vast range and number of native species dead in their wake. Cane toads exude a toxic poison so when some Aussie critter thinks 'here's a nice snack" it then turns out to be the last good idea.