UK pound down....

[Anglian]

I think you must have requested for overseas remittance so they use Citi.
My OAP and RAF pensions are direct deposits into my HSBC account in the Channel Islands. The funds sit there in GBP, on low interest, until I decide what to do.

Yes so was mine when I had a jersey bank, but due to Santander keep blocking my Debit Card, I transferred to BCA here in jakarta, so now the OAp goes to Citi bank in London, as do all others not in channel isles or IofM banks, so they tell me, I'm under the impression Citi bank convert to the currrency to where the OAP is located, I tried to get further info but it's like talking to friendly wooden tots, I haven't checked with BA on how they transfer their pensions, but beware Dave, it took me 3 months to get my pension, they just couldn't get my BCA bank address correct, you have to telephone, but you just cannot talk to anyone who makes a decision, emails take 2 weeks to answer, I should say reply as they say telephone as the internet isn't safe so won't take any bank details, it's like dealing with headless chickens, the office is based in Newcastle and my uncle worked there before he retired, and he wasn't much use after a liquid lunch

 

[sumyunggai]

Not bad: https://www.currencyfair.com/blog/money-transfer-companies-compared/

They only support 18 currencies, obviously IDR is not one of them.

 

[jstar]

Nope. But they give a good overview of all their competitors.

 

[Davita]

I'm not advocating any currency-exchangers but was introduced to TransferWise on another forum..so just did a dummy run for comparison.
I changed GBP10,000 to CDN$

TransferWise gave CDN$ 16,417.41 net.
CurrencyFair gave CDN$ 16,410.00 net.

Not a lot of difference but a big difference to those using Bank standard rates.

 

[sumyunggai]

Well, the pound is up a bit today (1%), after a Uk court said that the government would need to seek Parliamentary approval to leave the EU. This will of course be forthcoming, but still.

Meanwhile with a Trump victory looking more likely in the US, that might also boost the pound and euro.

 

[jstar]

It must suck to be a PM of a country and having to execute something so impactful that goes against your own convictions.

This could mean a delay though if the appeal fails and it has to go through parliament.

 

[sumyunggai]

This could mean a delay though if the appeal fails and it has to go through parliament.

I don't think there was ever a plan NOT to go through Parliament; this case was taken by private citizens and as such the government was required to defend it, but they were always planning to put a vote through Parliament any way.

 

[waarmstrong]

Well, the pound is up a bit today (1%), after a Uk court said that the government would need to seek Parliamentary approval to leave the EU. This will of course be forthcoming, but still.

Meanwhile with a Trump victory looking more likely in the US, that might also boost the pound and euro.

The market is uncharacteristically in decline in this week before the election due to jitters over Trump's late serge. A Trump victory would likely cause a protracted market selloff; it would not be good for anyone with investments driven by market forces and ultimately for everyone. The pound would not be exempted from the sell off.

 

[tokektokek]

It must suck to be a PM of a country and having to execute something so impactful that goes against your own convictions.

This could mean a delay though if the appeal fails and it has to go through parliament.

You don't know exactly what the PM wants though. All you hear is what she has said to the media, which could be just trying to keep the votes. It would be no surprise if she actually knew that there could be no "Brexit", as she knows it will be decided by Parliament, but she wants to keep those 17million people who voted leave on her side. In short, it would be no surprise if she wants the UK to remain in the EU. I have my doubts about Boris Johnsons desires too, I believe that he was not expecting the leave side, which he was leading, to win.

The PM is not stupid, she will understand how the UK works.

It has been pretty clear all along that the final decision would be made by Parliament. It has been said all along that the referendum was advisory.

At the end of the day it is such a huge gamble for the UK to actually leave the EU, that it quite rightly needs to be decided by Parliament. Something this major can not be left in the hands of the population of the UK, most of whom don't understand anything about politics, or even exactly what the EU does, or the consequences of leaving.

As I said before, I am not convinced that the UK will actually leave the EU.

 

[fastpitch17]

Most currencies against the Rupiah are up today. The Rupiah has weakened due to the riots.

 

[Terry MacArsey]

At the end of the day it is such a huge gamble for the UK to actually leave the EU, that it quite rightly needs to be decided by Parliament. Something this major can not be left in the hands of the population of the UK, most of whom don't understand anything about politics, or even exactly what the EU does, or the consequences of leaving.

Seems a bit pointless having a referendum to start with then. Seems we're so thick that we can't decide for ourselves.

Or maybe the previous PM was also too thick to give us the choice in the first place and also also too thick to have a plan of action in case he lost

 

[jstar]

Yeah I hate those "we will consider the outcome of the referendum(b)s". If there are clear boundaries for acceptance, e.g. there needs to be at least a 70% of the people showing up and there needs to be at least a 55% majority, fine.

There also seems to be a bit of a difference in press reporting. The (non UK) European newspapers I read, all mention the anti Brexit speeches the current PM gave to business leaders some time ago. After that she softened her tone.

And the European press clearly states the government does not want to include Parliament and appeals the court decision. So they do want to follow the referendum without taking a risk of rejection.

 

[sumyunggai]

The market is uncharacteristically in decline in this week before the election due to jitters over Trump's late serge. A Trump victory would likely cause a protracted market selloff; it would not be good for anyone with investments driven by market forces and ultimately for everyone. The pound would not be exempted from the sell off.

If the dollar weakens, then other currencies strengthen, by definition. That's independent of market selloffs, which do not harm holders of currency, but rather holders of shares.

 

[jstar]

Hmm. What happens if USD goes down but IDR weakens as well because of political instability or measures from BI (against other currencies)? In this case:

GBP - USD - IDR

That could mean the IDR vs the GBP stays stable.

 

[waarmstrong]

If the dollar weakens, then other currencies strengthen, by definition. That's independent of market selloffs, which do not harm holders of currency, but rather holders of shares.

Here's how it really works. Currencies are measures of perceived economic vitality. If the world sees economic instability triggered by a Trump victory then jittery investors (whether investing in commodities, securities or currencies) will rush to safe havens. These days for currency traders that means the USD. Funny it's it that the USD strengthens at the expense of the Pound even though the cause of the sell off is uncertainty triggered by US politics.

 

[Davita]

Here's how it really works. Currencies are measures of perceived economic vitality. If the world sees economic instability triggered by a Trump victory then jittery investors (whether investing in commodities, securities or currencies) will rush to safe havens. These days for currency traders that means the USD. Funny it's it that the USD strengthens at the expense of the Pound even though the cause of the sell off is uncertainty triggered by US politics.

That's nonsense...the recent rise, last week, in GBP, had nothing to do with the USA. It had everything to do with the decision of the UK High Court last Thursday.

The verdict by the High Court means UK will have to go thru' a lot of stages before triggering to exit the EU. This has given some delay but will soon be tried again when the Supreme Court meets to decide the outcome of whether the government itself can negotiate.....or whether it will take the whole of Parliament.

The GBP rose against nearly every other currency on this news. Yesterday I converted quite a lot of my GBP savings to other currencies.

 

[Davita]

Most currencies against the Rupiah are up today. The Rupiah has weakened due to the riots.

I also thought that might be the case and waited to exchange but the currency markets re: IDR didn't change much...woe is me!

It did change against the GBP but that was because the GBP suddenly strengthened due to the UK High Court verdict. It will probably decline again awaiting a Supreme Court decision.

 

[waarmstrong]

That's nonsense...the recent rise, last week, in GBP, had nothing to do with the USA. It had everything to do with the decision of the UK High Court last Thursday.

The verdict by the High Court means UK will have to go thru' a lot of stages before triggering to exit the EU. This has given some delay but will soon be tried again when the Supreme Court meets to decide the outcome of whether the government itself can negotiate.....or whether it will take the whole of Parliament.

The GBP rose against nearly every other currency on this news. Yesterday I converted quite a lot of my GBP savings to other currencies.

My point exactly; currencies, like most investments, react to perceived instability triggered by current event. Brext was the instability event marginally mitigated by the recent court decision.

The future event I was talking about is a Trump election win; other possible events aside, if that happens, the likely impact is the pound losing value to the dollar. This is a scenario which comports with reaction to past US events perceived as heightening risk.

But hey, if it's nonsense, you and other UK Forex traders should be piling into the pound in advance of next week's US election. But I see that you are doing the opposite.

 

[Davita]

Waarmy...do you remember what you said above ....my disagreement stems from that.... it had nothing to do with the USA.

Nevertheless....I don't have any argument with your assessment vis a vis currencies after next Tuesday. The world awaits and, as you suggest, will adjust.

 

[sumyunggai]

Well like I said, with President Trump the dollar is down, around 1.5% at the moment against CHF, EUR, JPY, GBP, etc.

The Mexican Peso, meanwhile, is down over 10%.