Expectations re the Middle East.

[harryopal1]

It seems unlikely that this war will end soon as suggested by President Trump. We are already seeing serious disruptions around the world with fuel supplies and inflationary impact on prices of even domestically grown food stuffs and other goods let alone imports. While we may be a long way away it seems the tourist industry here is already impacted and that trend will probably increase.

Sending warships into the Hormuz Strait to protect shipping would have enormous political consquences if Iran managed to hit a warship either by missile or a suicide attack with an explosive laden small vessel. I suspect that this thought has influenced European governments with their reluctance to respond positively to Trump's demand for naval support.

Even were there a negotiated cease fire I doubt there will be peace. It seems Zionist extremists are setting Israeli policies and the end game is to occupy the West Bank, probably much of Gaza and there are those who believe that God intended his chosen people to have land that extends into considerable parts of the Middle East. And even if overt Israeli military activity were curbed it is likely that Mosad will engage in unrelenting covert activity to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah leaders wherever they may be. I understand that there are many Israelis would prefer a complete end to this conflict but not sure that they carry enough numbers to sway Netanyahu or enough members of the Knesset.

I wonder what other Forum members make of all this?

 

[Helpful Herbert]

there are those who believe that God intended his chosen people to have land that extends into considerable parts of the Middle East.

And on the other side they believe the same thing.
So it is basically a crisis without any possible solution.
Although the muslim countries fighting each other is a new development, but as we see from Pakistan/Taliban not entirely without precedent. And who can forget the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

All things considered, Indonesia seems a pretty safe place to be. Nobody seems to want a war in this part of the world...yet.

 

[centurion]

Although the muslim countries fighting each other is a new development

Muslim countries fighting all the time between each other but you do it hear often media because you know...no Jews no news.

 

[Bad_azz]

Here in Indonesia (hopefully) we are less likely than many to suffer as badly but one of the main issues coming out of this conflict is fertilizer shortage.
China being the main exporter bodes better for this part of the world but I would expect to see the knock on effect through farming and food produce globally for a long time to come. Not to mention that Indonesia actually produces loads of the stuff too.

 

[centurion]

Here in Indonesia (hopefully) we are less likely than many to suffer as badly but one of the main issues coming out of this conflict is fertilizer shortage.
China being the main exporter bodes better for this part of the world but I would expect to see the knock on effect through farming and food produce globally for a long time to come. Not to mention that Indonesia actually produces loads of the stuff too.

Expect the plastic and everything from plastic to go up. Import of raw material is already 30-50% higher-I had some purchases few days ago, and people from the industry confirm as well.

 

[harryopal1]

Indonesia imports a considerable amount of petroleum needs from Singapore and Malaysia who rely on imports from Saudi Arabia. I wonder how long it will take if this supply chain is disrupted before we see problems here. Not long I daresay. Traditionally few things put rioters our into the streets than when fuel costs go up as it instantly hammers the poorest people..

 

[Helpful Herbert]

There have been fuel shortages since last August, particularly Shell seems to have no fuel more often than it actually has fuel.

 

[snpark]

Indeed the Kuningan Shell is a deserted glorified Grab carpark sleep zone now.

 

[jstar]

particularly Shell seems to have no fuel more often than it actually has fuel.

Post in thread 'Fossil Fuel subsidies, current state of affairs and impact'. Shell is leaving the retail full station business in RI completely this year.

https://www.expatindo.org/community...-state-of-affairs-and-impact.4655/post-111678

 

[harryopal1]

Just watched the Australian prime minister offering reassurances such as don't worry, everything is under control. When I get in a taxi and give the driver the address and he responds with "no worries" I immediately check my safety belt. The South Australian government's premier has recently been caught out having lied for months about an algal bloom that has polluted Spencer Gulf, adjacent to the capital city Adelaide. The premier and other "experts' have been saying that the bloom is not really dangerous.. might be a slight problem if you have asthma. This despite tens of thousands of birds and marine creatures ranging from tiny crabs to dolphins, seals and sharks found dead along the shorelines. An ABC investigative report has revealed that the bloom contains dangerously toxic elements.

ChatGpt says Australia has perhaps 3 to 4 weeks of petroleum reserves if the Middle East crisis disrupts oil lines. I don't really trust AI but I trust government reassurances less. When people stock up ahead of an imminent crisis media reports talk of "panic buying". To me it just seems prudent.

 

[jstar]

The situation here is not as bad as in Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Myanmar, Bangladesh etc. There they have taken measures as full odd/even, mandatory part-time work or work from home, a maximum of 15 liter per customer per week, move Lebaran forward, etc.

 

[jstar]

For those with European roots or WNI residing there, the impact on travel cots is huge.

The last week the prices have been triple since all three ME airlines were severely affected. So people coming from Europe for pulang kampung had to pay business class prices ( > €2.200 ) for their economy ticket.

 

[snpark]

All i get is emails saying now is a great time to visit Dubai and Abu Dhabi reduced fares in First and Business and to renew Gold Status this year I now only need 25% less tier miles.

Reminds me after 9-11 it was so cheap to fly long haul Emirates J and F that I literally spent most of January on a plane flying for fun just to get some miles in. I went to Sydney, Cape Town and NYC alone in first and renewed my Skywards Gold just in that month alone. I remember one flight an Indian gentleman sat across from me asking me about my flight activity since the cabin crew were so familiar with me and the Purser bought out her laptop and said Mr Park is one of our Elite member, he has already requalified for Gold status and the Indian man was speechless he was trying to show off how he was a gold member and would get to 50,000 tier miles in a year and I'm sitting there in January already done it lol.


BTW lots of very funny memes about the fuel crisis in Oz and only 14 days until it becomes like a Mad Max movie ferrying the last of the oil around. Just enough left for my flaming Stratocaster

 

[serious_fun]

ja, even if 'peace' were to be declared today it would take months for shipping to get back to some semblance of normalcy. (shipping insurance alone would take >10 days to process, yes? then minesweeping...)

not to mention the horrible human suffering of course.

 

[snpark]

And for the fuel prices to go back to what they were in January