Expectations re the Middle East.

[Bob]

Polisi must be gearing up for protests...hopefully all remains civil & peaceful if there are demonstrations since other issues start coming to the fore once protests hit the streets.

The fuel subsidies remain through December yes? God willing there will be some sort of resolution to the madness. (satanyahu's arrest would be an excellent start.)

If Netanyahu’s out then who takes his place though? I wouldn’t expect them to stop what they’re doing and try to roll back the wrongs.

 

[snpark]

Euro now peak 20540
USD still 17395

 

[jstar]

‘Now‘ is not possible since it’s a public holiday. So BI uses yesterday’s rate and no updates of the JISDOR.

 

[centurion]

‘Now‘ is not possible since it’s a public holiday. So BI uses yesterday’s rate and no updates of the JISDOR.

IDR NDFs is traded during weekends and holidays abroad.

 

[jstar]

Not really, NDF’s follow the public holidays of the countries concerned.

For those who are not familiar with this: Quite many currencies, especially in emerging markets, are blocked, they call that non-convertible. That means they can not be freely exchanged outside a country and they can’t easily be removed from their home country. Investors who want to trade use so called non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Those are contracts using convertible currencies -without government restrictions- like the USD and EUR. So it’s mainly for speculation and sometimes hedging (to avoid losses).

Makes perfect sense they follow the national holidays since when the local markets are closed, there is no active trading. So then they can’t calculate a rate.

 

[jstar]

German Defense Secretary Boris Pistorius calls the US decision to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany "predictable". The news came after a week in which US President Donald Trump openly argued with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump was angry because Merz had criticized the American war in Iran.

According to Pistorius, it was clear for some time that Europe - and therefore also Germany - should take more responsibility to defend the continent. He states that Germany is doing well with, among other things, the growth of the armed forces and the acquisition of new equipment.

The minister does emphasize that military cooperation with the Americans will continue. For example, they retain the Ramstein military base in southwestern Germany as the main airbase for Europe and Africa. According to Pistorius, almost 40,000 Americans are currently stationed in Germany.

NATO is still discussing with the US what exactly the withdrawal entails. Nice job for Rutte.

 

[harryopal1]

Even if Israel were able to hammer Hezbollah into an "acceptable" state of incapability, how difficult will it be to radicalize the tens of thousands of relatives to want revenge for the tens of thousands killed in Gaza and Lebanon? There may be ceasefires but long term peace seems extremely unlikely.

 

[Hawk256]

Even if Israel were able to hammer Hezbollah into an "acceptable" state of incapability, how difficult will it be to radicalize the tens of thousands of relatives to want revenge for the tens of thousands killed in Gaza and Lebanon? There may be ceasefires but long term peace seems extremely unlikely.

All Isreal has done is make a new generation of fighters. Nothing actually productive. I guess the plan is to let their kids deal with it, because they certainly will. And then the next generation and so on.

 

[serious_fun]

All Isreal has done is make a new generation of fighters. Nothing actually productive. I guess the plan is to let their kids deal with it, because they certainly will. And then the next generation and so on.

The 'Forever War' doctrine at work.

 

[Pak Tani]

Even if Israel were able to hammer Hezbollah into an "acceptable" state of incapability, how difficult will it be to radicalize the tens of thousands of relatives to want revenge for the tens of thousands killed in Gaza and Lebanon?

Hezbollah emerged in response to the June 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
If Israeli violence created them, more violence will likely make them more determined and stronger.
A good excuse for Israel to grab more land to use as a buffer zone.

 

[Bob]

All Isreal has done is make a new generation of fighters. Nothing actually productive. I guess the plan is to let their kids deal with it, because they certainly will. And then the next generation and so on.

They’ve created that new generation of fighters, but they’ve also made what I reckon they believe is progress in taking more of Gaza and the West Bank, making both more into open air prisons for the Palestinians, clearing a big chunk of Lebanon of opposition, and further weakening those neighbors they perceive as potential adversaries. They’re setting things up pretty well for a bigger role in the region.

 

[Hawk256]

They’ve created that new generation of fighters, but they’ve also made what I reckon they believe is progress in taking more of Gaza and the West Bank, making both more into open air prisons for the Palestinians, clearing a big chunk of Lebanon of opposition, and further weakening those neighbors they perceive as potential adversaries. They’re setting things up pretty well for a bigger role in the region.

Oh, when it comes to stealing land and putting the boot in, they are pros. Peace making not so much.

 

[harryopal1]

What odds that Hezbollah and Israel will continue trying to destroy each other even before the expected signing of a a peace deal, including Lebanon, on the 19th? Even if the Hezbollah and Israeli government leaders agree, there are so many crazies with itchy fingers.

 

[jstar]

This is quite interesting:

A bit difficult to conceive but in recent years, Iran has become a significant player in the dairy sector, processing millions of tons of raw milk annually and converting much of it into skimmed milk powder for export.

For many food processors across the Middle East, sourcing from Iran offers/ed shorter transit times, lower freight costs and a reliable monthly supply. Obviously advantages that matter for dairy drinks, but also confectionery and bakery manufacturers, they require consistency.

It is estimated that Iran exported about 182,000 tons of milk powder in 2025, up by 27% compared to ‘24 and roughly 134,000 tons more than in 2021.

This growth put Iran past Australia in the rank as the 4th-largest global exporter, behind the European Union, New Zealand and the United States. Major buyers include(d) Pakistan, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan.

You can imagine the impact on those exports and the prices.