DON'T PANIC.... well, maybe a little bit.

ChrisTex

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What's really going to be annoying, and hopefully doesn't happen, is if people who already were fully vaccinated with Sinovac/AZ, then get a Pfizer booster, taking doses from unvaccinated people.

As much as I wanted Pfizer instead of Sinovac, I won't be getting in line again for this very reason.
 

ChrisTex

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dafluff

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So is Sinovac really that ineffective? If people believe this, the scenero Dafluff mentioned with Pfizer might actually happen.


Here is an article from the Ministry of Health that goes deeper into the numbers.

There are approximately 6,000 HC workers in Kudus, almost all which were vaccinated by March 2021. Up to June 12th, 308 HC workers were Covid positive, although unclear if this count started from before March or not.

Specifically, at dr Loekmono Hadir Regional Hospital, which I think is the main government hospital in Kudus, 153 HC workers were positive, 11 required hospital care, 86 are on self-isolation, and 59 have already recovered. Again, not specifying whether these numbers were compiled including the time period before the vaccination drive or only after.

6,085 healthcare workers have received at least 1 shot, and 5,888 have completed the second shot.

 

Nimbus

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So is Sinovac really that ineffective? If people believe this, the scenero Dafluff mentioned with Pfizer might actually happen.

Sinovac is 65% effective against alpha variant, so it’s gonna be less than that for delta from India. The latest study shows Pfizer to have 88% efficacy against delta.

If I were the minister of health, I would use the small amount of Pfizer vaccines strictly to revaccinate healthcare workers.
 

dafluff

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If I were the minister of health, I would use the small amount of Pfizer vaccines strictly to revaccinate healthcare workers.

This is actually an interesting idea, especially since it's likely that even one shot would already be a boost.
 

harryopal

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There have been statements of reassurance from a variety of sources that vaccines presently being used should be effective even against the new and deadly Indian mutation. We all hope that is correct but I suspect it really is to soon to be sure that this is so. Wife and I both had two shots of AstraZenaca. I wonder how long before there is sufficient data to give information about the efficacy of the different vaccines with the new Variant?

On the other hand this question is a bit rich from someone who has never taken annual flu shots as I have no great faith in how well whatever had been the current vaccine in preventing the flu which had mutated after the previous season.
 

Nimbus

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There have been statements of reassurance from a variety of sources that vaccines presently being used should be effective even against the new and deadly Indian mutation. We all hope that is correct but I suspect it really is to soon to be sure that this is so. Wife and I both had two shots of AstraZenaca. I wonder how long before there is sufficient data to give information about the efficacy of the different vaccines with the new Variant?

On the other hand this question is a bit rich from someone who has never taken annual flu shots as I have no great faith in how well whatever had been the current vaccine in preventing the flu which had mutated after the previous season.
The preliminary data is out there, Pfizer has 95% efficacy against the original Covid strain and 88% against delta. Sinovac is 65% against the original covid, so it’s going to be less against delta, probably close to 50-50.

It’s about statistics. Seat belts are mandatory despite having only 55% effectiveness in preventing death in car accidents. If you demand 100% protection from any product, you’ll never get it. It’s always a cost-benefit analysis, like insurance.

I rarely get the flu vaccine, not because I don’t believe it but because I’m often too lazy to do it. At least I don’t try to justify it by arguing that it’s ineffective. Tens of thousands of people in USA die each year from the mere flu.
 

Banana72

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So I thought I read the idea that vaccines only reduce the severity of the virus, and not necessarily making you 100% immune...it just reduces chances for hospitalization, severity, and death...and my wife got Sinovac, and after the 2nd shot she took an antibody test (blood test at Prodia if I'm not mistaken), her number was 76 (and btw 100 is not necessarily the max). Her brother also took Sinovac, and the antibody number was 10....her nephew who also had sinovac, but later on (possibly incorrectly diagnosed that he had Covid?) had 176 antibody...so i don't think it's necessarily the vaccine...but probably how your body react to it?

Also I'm curious...say if you got/completed the vacc shots...then you get swab test, would the test come out as positive? (or at least since it shows antibody, could it be incorrectly interpreted that you have Covid?) I wonder about the latest spike in numbers...
 

dafluff

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So I thought I read the idea that vaccines only reduce the severity of the virus, and not necessarily making you 100% immune...it just reduces chances for hospitalization, severity, and death...and my wife got Sinovac, and after the 2nd shot she took an antibody test (blood test at Prodia if I'm not mistaken), her number was 76 (and btw 100 is not necessarily the max). Her brother also took Sinovac, and the antibody number was 10....her nephew who also had sinovac, but later on (possibly incorrectly diagnosed that he had Covid?) had 176 antibody...so i don't think it's necessarily the vaccine...but probably how your body react to it?
As long as there are detectable numbers of antibodies, that means the vaccine worked. The numbers can change depending on how long it has been since the vaccine and other factors. Antibody numbers continue to drop after the infection has passed, but the "data" is stored in memory T cells, which can quickly produce them again if re-infected. A 176 number is pretty high, consistent with someone who has had Covid, so maybe he did at some point.

Also I'm curious...say if you got/completed the vacc shots...then you get swab test, would the test come out as positive? (or at least since it shows antibody, could it be incorrectly interpreted that you have Covid?) I wonder about the latest spike in numbers...
Indonesia is using PCR and antigen tests for their Covid numbers, so having antibodies will not cause a false positive. The latest spike is a consequence of increased holiday mobility and behavioral changes, along with possibly a more infectious strain.
 

dafluff

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Indonesian Medical Association: Between Feb and May, 61 doctors have died in Indonesia due to Covid. Of those, only 10 have received 2 doses of the vaccine, 4 have received only 1 dose, and 47 were not vaccinated due to not qualifying for vaccination.

Also must consider that the pool of doctors fully vaccinated is much larger than the pool of doctors not vaccinated.

The Ministry of Health's dashboard says that ~96% of medical personnel have received 2 doses, which means that the fully vaccinated outnumber the not fully vaccinated 24 to 1, as of today.

 
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centurion

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Indonesian infected with covid, how it goes in reality(true story). Age 37, male, smoker.

-Last Thursday filing dizzy.
-Last Friday did the antigen test, negative( antigen can have false negatives, or be negative when symptoms already started). Feeling weak, went to the doctor. He got medicine against gastritis only, despite in the middle of a pandemic. No vitamines, no antibiotics, etc. Same night fever 38-39.
-Saturday, consulted the doctor again. Got antihistaminic(antiallergic medicine), panadol, and medicine aginst vomiting. Again, no antibiotics, vitamines, etc. Temperature goes to 42 but manages to go down to 38.
-Sunday, fever 38, decided to do a PCR. PCR of course positive. Gets by himself antibiotics, vitamin D, C, Zinc, etc.
-Monday stable but fever 38, Tuesday, evening breathing, trying to go to the hospital. Hospital refuses as they are full and his oxygen saturation is 95%, and not considered urgent. Recommended self-isolation, no additional advice besides that. Heavy breathing and still good saturation probably point to developing pneumonia.
-Wednesday heavy breathing during the night, fever 38. Oxygen saturation is still good(>94%), but weak, cannot walk.
-Thursday(today), expecting oxygen support to come during the day, for the next 3-5 days.
 

dafluff

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Indonesian infected with covid, how it goes in reality(true story). Age 37, male, smoker.

-Last Thursday filing dizzy.
-Last Friday did the antigen test, negative( antigen can have false negatives, or be negative when symptoms already started). Feeling weak, went to the doctor. He got medicine against gastritis only, despite in the middle of a pandemic. No vitamines, no antibiotics, etc. Same night fever 38-39.
-Saturday, consulted the doctor again. Got antihistaminic(antiallergic medicine), panadol, and medicine aginst vomiting. Again, no antibiotics, vitamines, etc. Temperature goes to 42 but manages to go down to 38.
-Sunday, fever 38, decided to do a PCR. PCR of course positive. Gets by himself antibiotics, vitamin D, C, Zinc, etc.
-Monday stable but fever 38, Tuesday, evening breathing, trying to go to the hospital. Hospital refuses as they are full and his oxygen saturation is 95%, and not considered urgent. Recommended self-isolation, no additional advice besides that. Heavy breathing and still good saturation probably point to developing pneumonia.
-Wednesday heavy breathing during the night, fever 38. Oxygen saturation is still good(>94%), but weak, cannot walk.
-Thursday(today), expecting oxygen support to come during the day, for the next 3-5 days.

I hope you will get better soon.

It's a shitty situation right now, with so many hospitals full, some areas even running low on oxygen.

Indonesia is entering another critical phase in the pandemic, with yesterday's daily cases surpassing the record from the previous wave.

Stay safe everyone.
 
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Methblinkz

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Did you read this?
Is it just me (misunderstanding) or is there a critical factor missing from the author's interpretation of the results of studies? Time.

First, they present data for a study of deaths among newborns given a tetanus vaccine. They compare outcomes between vaccinated and unvaccinated children to find the efficacy rate (relative risk reduction). In this case you can clearly see the full results of the vaccine, as the study fills the full period of susceptibility to the disease (as a newborn). The author then emphasizes that the truly important thing is the amount of actual harm that was prevented, what percentage of babies would have died.

When the author moves on to an analysis of the efficacy of Covid vaccines, they continue to emphasize the number of severe symptoms. What I see wrong here is that the author is treating the period of time of the Covid study as though it were the full period of susceptibility to the disease. So with the author's presentation, if 1% of the control group experienced severe symptoms of disease during the study, then the vaccine can only protect a maximum of 1% of the population from severe symptoms, ever. This makes the vaccine seem unnecessary, as the risk is very low anyway. The problem is that the risk of infection did not go away when the study ended. So, what we should really see is "1% of the population had severe symptoms over a set amount of time in specific conditions". You wouldn't expect to get the same percentage of severe symptoms over 2 weeks in NZ and 6 months in Brazil, would you?

Basically, you need something like 70% of the population to have immunity to stop this disease. So if the author wants to ignore time frames in the study, we can go ahead and multiply out the rate of infection to 70% and increase the rate of death and hospitalization by the same factor...

I don't understand why someone who is clearly more intelligent than I am went through the trouble of writing something that has such a misleading conclusion. They must know this is bunkum. (Or I just don't understand the math/science and am talking out my ass.)
I got an answer by the author, i run it through google translate so it might be a bit messy:

"KM: In fact, the observation period of newborn mortality in the studies on tetanus vaccination was a maximum of one month after birth. This time frame is only half that of the studies on the COVID-19 vaccines. However, that is not the point. This example should make it clear that the relative risk reduction can be comparatively low at 80 percent, while the absolute risk reduction is relatively high at 6.3 percent. In comparison with Biontech: relative risk reduction 95 percent, absolute risk reduction 0.7 percent"
 

Methblinkz

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Exactly right. I was too lazy to reply and explain the flawed logic, but you did a good job.

Further, in the Conclusion they say, "a reduction in mortality could not be proven by randomized controlled trials." While technically true, it's irrelevant and trying to distract. The trial itself did not prove reduced mortality because no one in the placebo group died, the trial did prove that it dramatically reduces total cases, and there is zero doubt that cases lead to deaths.
I got an answer by the author, translated with google:

"KM: This argument does not take into account that vaccination side effects can also lead to higher mortality.
"
 

Methblinkz

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Do you have anything from a source that has more than maybe 5 articles? Maybe one that doesn't have an article called "False Pandemics" and another called "Clade X – A bioweapon for population reduction"?

Oh but let's examine something from the article itself:



No. Just because it causes some of the same symptoms as influenza, doesn't mean it mutates at the same rate. Here is a link to an article that describes influenza vs Sars-cov-2 mutation rate, for those who are interested.

Now, Sars-cov-2 has mutated many times already, and it is because it has been given so many opportunities to do so. In part by people who ignore precautions because "it's just like the flu". As more people get infected, more viruses are replicated, increasing the chance for a successful mutation.

Finally, the rest of the article criticizes the initial Pfizer-Biontech study because no one died in that one, so the efficacy for preventing death could not be calculated. This is a fair point, were it not for the fact that since then we have tons of studies on the efficacy in preventing death for Pfizer's vaccine, and basically, all other vaccines that are currently being used.
I didn't wait for the study you sent to me, but i got an answer anYway. Translated with google:

"
KM: Research into the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 is still in its infancy. Different statements can be found on the question of whether this happens as quickly as with the influenza viruses:




KM: There are more recent studies such as the case-control study in Israel. However, this is not a randomized controlled trial. A bias of the results is therefore possible through a suitable choice of the control group."


also a note from myself, Iam outta this discussions. I finally learned it is wrong for me to talk about stuff where I, MSELf can't give any answer to.


if you have questions for the author, feel free to contact him:

[email protected]


BTW Clade X was one of these plan-games, where they simulated a pandemic or something like that.

False pandemics is about a book. So yeah, like I said..reading won't kill y'all. If you read something it doesn't mean you agree....
 

HappyMan

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I got an answer by the author, i run it through google translate so it might be a bit messy:

"KM: In fact, the observation period of newborn mortality in the studies on tetanus vaccination was a maximum of one month after birth. This time frame is only half that of the studies on the COVID-19 vaccines. However, that is not the point. This example should make it clear that the relative risk reduction can be comparatively low at 80 percent, while the absolute risk reduction is relatively high at 6.3 percent. In comparison with Biontech: relative risk reduction 95 percent, absolute risk reduction 0.7 percent"
Well... I think you probably understand the problem with using this "absolute risk reduction" model while taking a sample of time and location that is not “absolute". By combining the participants who never contracted the disease with the patients who did in order to find "absolute risk" the author is essentially declaring that "the participants who didn't contract Covid during the trial will never contract Covid". That would only make sense if you had intentionally exposed all the patients.
It's like if I went out and did a sampling of my oranges in 1 of my 50 trees today to see how many diseased oranges there were, then declared my absolute disease rate for the entire year for all trees. I didn't even sample one tree for the whole year... but, since I happened to do my counting while the trees were blooming and had no fruit, success! I will have a 0% disease rate this year! Guess I don't need to bother spraying or doing any pest prevention. Wow, who knew I could protect my plants from disease with bad statistical analysis?
 

R Cameron

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I got an answer by the author, i run it through google translate so it might be a bit messy:

"KM: In fact, the observation period of newborn mortality in the studies on tetanus vaccination was a maximum of one month after birth. This time frame is only half that of the studies on the COVID-19 vaccines. However, that is not the point. This example should make it clear that the relative risk reduction can be comparatively low at 80 percent, while the absolute risk reduction is relatively high at 6.3 percent. In comparison with Biontech: relative risk reduction 95 percent, absolute risk reduction 0.7 percent"

There is no doubt that the tetanus vaccine has saved many millions of lives, we should all be very thankful for that development. But not everything must be compared to that incredible success. If the Covid vaccines save only a few million lives (and much short and long term sickness), is that now a failure?

What is more, they are entirely different diseases; tetanus does not spread from person to person, so one person does not become a threat to their entire household.
 

Methblinkz

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Again, Iam out of this discussion. It clearly goes over my head and you seem to be a lot smarter than me or the author or there is a big misunderstanding or whatever.

The author already asked me about the address of the forum and the address of the thread. So yeah, maybe he gets involved here or not. Although i wouldn't see why anyone who is not an expat would be interested in discussing something here about medical stuff. Anyway, who knows.

I have the impression that the author will give you an answer after a few days. If you are interested in talking with him.

If the case is closed for y'all and you see this is someone who spreads fake news, then yeah, let it be.

Again, Iam defeated here cause I can't actively give any answer of value myself. That doesn't mean that all is wrong, that means I and only I am not intelligent enough for this subject. So yeah, don't invlove me anymore.
It's up to you to get more Infos about this or not.
 

HappyMan

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There is no doubt that the tetanus vaccine has saved many millions of lives, we should all be very thankful for that development. But not everything must be compared to that incredible success. If the Covid vaccines save only a few million lives (and much short and long term sickness), is that now a failure?

What is more, they are entirely different diseases; tetanus does not spread from person to person, so one person does not become a threat to their entire household.
Also, neonatal tetanus is generally caused by infection of the umbilical stump, google says. That whole event fits in the 1 month time frame of the trial. Exposure to Covid is an ongoing risk, not constrained to the period of the trial.

So again, we are comparing a complete data set (what percentage of babies will get tetanus from their umbilical stumps) to an incomplete data set (what percentage of adults will get Covid). It just doesn't make sense unless you intentionally expose all the adults to Covid.
 

centurion

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I hope you will get better soon.

It's a shitty situation right now, with so many hospitals full, some areas even running low on oxygen.

Indonesia is entering another critical phase in the pandemic, with yesterday's daily cases surpassing the record from the previous wave.

Stay safe everyone.
Thanks for your worries, not me in question, but our Indonesian friend, so we follow his condition and assist him. I got vaccinated 2 months ago.

Oxygen ia still plenty to buy, luckilly not like in India, but doctor support including advices are on very low levels.

Obviously for the majority the only solution will be to get vaccinated. Somebody will die during that process but what to do.
 

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