From a wine & food blog:
There's a good chance that your wine will come from somewhere else in the future. Recent research shows that drought and heat waves pose a serious threat to vineyards in southern Europe, Europe's largest production area. Countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece could lose up to 90% of their wine regions this century. This is mainly due to rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall due to climate change.
The trend has been visible for some time. The grapes have been harvested 2 to 3 weeks earlier now than 40 years ago. In particular, low-lying areas and coastal areas in Spain, Italy and Greece are at risk if the warming rises above 2°C. Due to too high temperatures and too much drought, fewer grapes grow, there is a greater chance that a disease or fungus will infect the grape and the taste of the grape deteriorates and the alcohol percentage increases. The farmer will therefore be able to sell less wine and that wine is also of poorer quality. Due to these two factors, wine producers in southern Europe will increasingly disappear.
Other wine regions in the world are also suffering from climate change. The researchers expect 20 to 70% of today's vineyards worldwide to disappear. Or more specifically, the researchers expect that due to extreme weather conditions 29% of the vineyards will disappear and 41% may survive, depending on the effectiveness of measures.
Winegrowers can limit the damage. For example, by choosing grape varieties that are more resistant to drought and heat and adapting planting and pruning techniques. Irrigation can offer a solution, but given the growing water shortages, this is only a temporary measure. Despite these possibilities, in some areas, such as southern Spain, the options for adjustments are almost exhausted.
The silver edge of this dark cloud is that climate change creates new wine regions in areas that were previously too cold. In warm countries, you can plant vines at greater altitudes, where the temperature is somewhat lower. Northern countries such as England, Poland, Belgium, Netherlands and even Denmark are also already seeing growth in their wine production. In the United Kingdom, the area of vineyards increased by no less than 400% between 2004 and 2021. French champaign manufacturers are buying land there since the soil seems to be similar.
A quarter of today's cooler wine regions can therefore benefit from a temperature increase of 2 degrees. According to researchers, even more vineyards can be added in Europe than disappear. 40 to 60% more wine could be made in this century. However, the taste of wine lovers will have to change, as the origin of their favorite drink shifts to new places, where other, less well-known or completely newly developed grapes thrive better.
Africa and Asia currently count for a low level of wine production (3.8% and 3.5% respectively). Potential emerging wine regions in Africa include the highlands of Kenya and Ethiopia, where the wine industry is at the early stage of development. In Asia, emerging regions with potential include the northeastern Black Sea coasts, eastern Anotolia and Pamir-Himalayan Mountains.
Overall, depending on the degree of global warming, up to 65% of the traditional Australian vineyards might become climatically unsuitable, whereas wine-producing regions in New Zealand have the potential to expand by 15-60% by the end of the century.