Ranked: The Top Economies in the World (1980‒2075)

[serious_fun]

A bump chart that provides a historical and predictive overview of the world’s top 15 economies at several milestones: 1980, 2000, 2022, and Goldman Sachs projections for 2050 and 2075.

Indonesia featured prominently.

Ranked: The Top Economies in the World (1980‒2075)

 

[centurion]

A bump chart that provides a historical and predictive overview of the world’s top 15 economies at several milestones: 1980, 2000, 2022, and Goldman Sachs projections for 2050 and 2075.

Indonesia featured prominently.

Ranked: The Top Economies in the World (1980‒2075)

By the following order:
....
4th Indonesia
5th Nigeria
6th Pakistan
7th Egypt
....
and so on. Relaistic?

 

[Samoerai]

By the following order:
....
4th Indonesia
5th Nigeria
6th Pakistan
7th Egypt
....
and so on. Relaistic?

Read the comments down below in that article ....

 

[pantaiema]

What is surprising here is that the source of this prediction comes from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs is one of the largest Bank in the world in term of assets under management. They definitely have a team of economics and financial experts

https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2023/06/08/50ccfb98-b82c-4ba6-976d-d541f83239be.html

But history has proven that these experts often get it wrong. Their record of predicting the economy, global finance in the future has not been good. For the GDP of China and India to move up significantly will not be surprising anyone due to the significant size of their population. In the meanwhile their economy is also growing much faster than other countries. Apart from Indonesia No4 is questionable, what about Nigeria No5, Pakistan No6 (WHAT ???). But if it did happen it is a good things as this might reduce the claim for bogus asylum seekers using human right as a shield anywhere, depriving the right for genuine asylum seekers. It is also good for Indonesia as there will be less con artists that frequently appear in Tanah Abang Jakarta.

Regarding their track record of predicting the future, a recent example is JP Morgan Chase which is the second largest bank in the world (after Bank of China) bigger than Goldman Sachs. This is what his CEO was saying in June 2022 which is certainly based from his expert team consensus :

Jamie Dimon says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war

"You know, I said there's storm clouds but I'm going to change it … it's a hurricane," Dimon said Wednesday at a financial conference in New York.

www.cnbc.com

This is what he said about a year later acknowledging he got it wrong.

JPMorgan CEO Backs Down From Recession Warnings

Worried about a recession in 2023? Read on to see why one financial expert thinks things aren't so bad right now.

www.fool.com

In my personal opinion, any prediction like this should be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

[Brian86]

. Apart from Indonesia No4 is questionable, what about Nigeria No5, Pakistan No6 (WHAT ???).

Nigeria is expected to double their already large population in the next 30 years, becoming tied for 3rd largest in 2050. And Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia and become number 5. Those economic numbers are most strongly correlated to population; they would be more interesting to me as GDP per capita.

Projections of population growth - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Helpful Herbert]

Bob Geldof did a great job with Live Aid for Ethiopia raising money for their starving population. In 1985 at the time of Live Aid they had a population of 40m. According to the projection by 2100 their population will be 323m !!

 

[flavus]

Bob Geldof did a great job with Live Aid for Ethiopia raising money for their starving population. In 1985 at the time of Live Aid they had a population of 40m. According to the projection by 2100 their population will be 323m !!

Would there be an Ethiopia by then, or would it be a rump state, I wonder? Given the ethnic based civil war going on and off the past few years.

Their airline is supposed to be good though. Boeing trying to blame them for the 737 Max crash went down poorly (esp since it's the second crash after the Indonesian one). But I digress

 

[harryopal1]

Being the highest ranked economy in the world does not mean that all its people enjoy the best standard of living. The fixation on growth patterns often leads to terrible decisions impacting the poorest. The World Bank constantly pressures, as a requirement for loans, that governments cut subsidies often in place to assist those on lower incomes.

Take an undeveloped area where families have a subsistence lifestyle. A low dollar income of maybe $2 a day. World Bank and other international agencies loan hundreds of millions of dollars for a major dam. All the subsistence farmers are shoved off their land and become employees in factories that spring up with the availability of electricity and a cheap labour pool. So former subsistence families now are earning $50 a week. According to the bean counters this is major progress and a leap in GDP. But the factory fodder now have to pay for their food, accommodation, living in crowded semi slum conditions with all the social problems that come with this...crime. drugs, whatever. They may be dollar richer but in terms of lifestyle they are much worse off.

 

[Bob]

Would there be an Ethiopia by then, or would it be a rump state, I wonder? Given the ethnic based civil war going on and off the past few years.

Their airline is supposed to be good though. Boeing trying to blame them for the 737 Max crash went down poorly (esp since it's the second crash after the Indonesian one). But I digress

Ethiopia should be around, although maybe less some territory. Aren't they one of the oldest countries on Earth?

 

[Bob]

Being the highest ranked economy in the world does not mean that all its people enjoy the best standard of living. The fixation on growth patterns often leads to terrible decisions impacting the poorest. The World Bank constantly pressures, as a requirement for loans, that governments cut subsidies often in place to assist those on lower incomes.

Take an undeveloped area where families have a subsistence lifestyle. A low dollar income of maybe $2 a day. World Bank and other international agencies loan hundreds of millions of dollars for a major dam. All the subsistence farmers are shoved off their land and become employees in factories that spring up with the availability of electricity and a cheap labour pool. So former subsistence families now are earning $50 a week. According to the bean counters this is major progress and a leap in GDP. But the factory fodder now have to pay for their food, accommodation, living in crowded semi slum conditions with all the social problems that come with this...crime. drugs, whatever. They may be dollar richer but in terms of lifestyle they are much worse off.

Good point on the WB/IMF on subsidies. Look no further than the responses of Indonesia vs Malaysia in 97 and 98 to demands to remove subsidies, and the results. Good point too on GDP vs quality of life.