The shape of things to come.

[harryopal1]

A Canadian journalist has been banned from returning to Vanuatu for writing a critical story about Chinese removal of a group of Chinese from Vanuatu back to China. Here is the full story.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11...t-dan-mcgarry-china-reporting-barred/11715428

The story is both ominous and significant as increasing numbers of developing countries take up Chinese loans and then find that they are suddenly being dictated to at all sort of levels by the Chinese government.

Whatever the great achievements of China lifting people out of extreme poverty it is in the nature of totalitarian governments to do whatever is necessary to protect their interests using whatever means available. (Across history I guess it has ever been thus.)

He who pays the piper calls the tune. How long before Indonesians take up Chinese assistance only to find themselves dancing to a tune that they had not anticipated? And who will be the first expatriate expelled from Indonesia for writing critically about China.... perhaps in this forum?........ No... no. Not me. I wasn't being critical. Just raising questions.

 

[jstar]

Quite a lot of assumptions in the article though.

Now of course Hong Kong shows us that there are more hot spots where we can see what happens when they 'take over'.

On the other hand, look at what happened with the allies of one of the largest democracies in the world. Like Chile, Uruguay, Guatemala, Iran, Philippines, Equatorial Guinea, ...

I think the risk of too much Chinese influence in this country is rather small. On the contrary, I see it happening that anti Chinese sentiment would raise its ugly head again. It was rather close the previous years (Ahok, presidential elections, gasoline price increase, ....).

 

[harryopal1]

.......

On the other hand, look at what happened with the allies of the largest democracy in the world. Like Chile, Uruguay, Guatemala, ...

I think the risk of too much Chinese influence in this country is rather small. On the contrary, I see it happening that anti Chinese sentiment would raise its ugly head again. It was rather close the previous years (Ahok, presidential elections, gasoline price increase, ....).

Having reported on the civil war in El Salvador when the US through the CIA were supporting and even training right wing governments in torture techniques (now known as "enhanced interrogation") I have no illusions about democracies ruthlessly pursuing their own interests. I was in Kenya when former Mau Mau - British run concentration camps were being dug up to reveal the systematic torture and killing of hundreds, if not thousands, of mostly Kikuyu freedom fighters before Britain accepted independence. But here and now we are in a period where China has developed the muscle and purpose to aggressively pursue their aspirations to be the dominant super power. The collateral damage associated with growing anti Chinese Communist government assertion are the Chinese living in countries such as Indonesia as the local Chinese become the target of growing hostility. A bit like as with Australian Muslims where extremist violence of Isis and other groups has caused a sorry increase in suspicion and, not infrequently, physical expressions of hostility towards Muslims just trying to get on with their lives. That said I think there is good reason to be concerned about overt Chinese government interventions in countries where they don't like criticism. Two members of the Australian government have just been banned from visiting China unless they"genuinely repent" for their critical comments about China. There is now a well proven pattern of China using visiting Chinese students to intimidate Chinese critics in Australia and putting out substantial amounts of money to influence political parties. I feel sure that Indonesia will begin to feel Chinese Communist government pressure as China seeks to develop friends and allies.

 

[Helpful Herbert]

Could be a good counterbalance to the Saudi influence?

 

[jstar]

Bali is a different story of course with tourists from mainland China (Central Java is also aiming at them), but when you look at technological progress and things like infrastructure, Japan is still a major investor and supplier. Now South Korea is also a big player. But the Chinese investments are enormous (for instance in power plants), close to those of Singapore and Japan. And they have more than a thousand companies here, quite impressive.

I can imagine PRC students becoming quite a powerhouse in Australia. With 2 million Chinese students Australia has many more than the US. The amount of Chinese students in Europe is also rather big, it is comparable to the US. (The sinology study is also popular in Europe.)

Of course the absolute amount of Indonesian students abroad is much lower, but the proportion between the three continents is very similar. China is also rather popular for Indonesian students, right between Europe/USA and Australia.

Now I don't think there are so many Chinese students here. Over here the emphasis is (obviously) much more on Mandarin elementary and high schools. Which definitely have good ties with the PRC (but also Taiwan). The one at PIK for instance, is huge. And the universities in the two countries collaborate of course. So what the impact of that would be in the near future?

 

[jukung11]

Vanuatu? Is anyone familiar with this country? It was the strip mine of the pacific. It is the one lowest cost for sale citizenship in the world and a world leader in money laundering, criminal sheltering, and corruption.

I doubt it is the Chinese government's fault. It is the Vanuatu government going with their new money making scheme after they got so heavily sanctioned for money laundering. Wealthy Chinese are now one of the largest blocks of new citizens to the country.

Passport sales now account for more than 30% of the country's revenue

How selling citizenship is now big business

A growing number of countries will now sell foreigners one of their passports - for a price.

www.bbc.com

It has been a fascinating country over the years, but the government typically jumps from one money making scheme to the next by using the grey areas of international law and its status as a sovereign nation. It cannot be used as a bellwether of anything.

There are a lot of better examples of Chinese international bullying from the projects in Africa to the nonrecognition of Taiwan.

There is already an undercurrent of anti-chinese sentiment in Indonesia sowed from divisions during Colonialism and post colonial communism. Indonesia has more of a problem not stoking that rather than bending to the Chinese government.

I saw this in the last election. There was a lot of press from pro-Prabowo media outlets about the Jokowi administration and Chinese money. I dug into the numbers and Chinese FDI is drowned out by the rest of Asia. They are typically only 8-10% of FDI, and less than 1% of direct Indonesian government debt. There was a lot of recent news of how none of the companies leaving China because of the trade war chose Indonesia. I think the larger story is that, in comparison to the rest of Asia and Africa, Indonesia has been seen as unreliable for Chinese investment.

 

[jukung11]

Now I don't think there are so many Chinese students here.

Indonesia averages less than 6,000 foreign students each year. My recollection was a third to a half of all students were from Malaysia. It is one of the lowest destinations in the world for foreign students. The low cost of an Indonesian education is outweighed by the reputation of the poor value of the degree.

 

[Vanuatu]

Vanuatu? Is anyone familiar with this country?

I am, at least in name.

 

[jstar]

Indonesia averages less than 6,000 foreign students each year.

Ok. Yeah quite a difference with the 69,000 Indonesians studying abroad.

I think the larger story is that, in comparison to the rest of Asia and Africa, Indonesia has been seen as unreliable for Chinese investment.

Perhaps. But they're still on 3rd position of foreign investors. (The top 5 is all Asian btw)

 

[harryopal1]

The pattern has been that if China sees a means of influencing perspectives by using it's nationals abroad they really have no choice but to do as they are told. I see no evidence that Taiwan directs it's nationals abroad in this way so the relative number of PRC and Taiwan students is irrelevant.

 

[harryopal1]

After my earlier remarks about the CCP determination to pursue national interests it is interesting to see new allegations about Chinese spying in Australia as reported today by the ABC

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11...ks-political-asylum-australia-report/11732174

Of course the person making the allegations has a vested interest in making such sensational claims for which there may or may not be evidence but the tenor of the story is consistent with Chinese actions these last few years so it will be interesting to se how this story develops.

And as regards spying, another new story today is the gaoling in the US of a former CIA agent for 19 years after being charged with conspiracy to spy for China. He had received $840,000/
https://www.npr.org/2019/11/22/7820...d-to-19-years-for-conspiracy-to-spy-for-china

 

[serious_fun]

I doubt it is the Chinese government's fault.

Here in HK we may have different feelings about that particular group.

 

[harryopal1]

The China espionage story just keeps growing. Look, we all know that just about every country engages in what might loosely be called spying but China's determination to pursue matters such as its "rightful" occupation of the Spratley Islands and "ownership" of the surrounding seas has lifted intelligence activities and moulding world opion to a whole new level.

Now the latest story in Australia today is a Chinese business man being offered $1,000, 000 to become an Australian parliamentarian and China's man.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...ment-authorities-believe-20191122-p53d9x.html

Kind of ironic given China's indignant demand for western countries to stop interfering in domestic Chinese affairs by calling for restraint in dealing with the Hong Kong crisis. It will be very interesting to see how the Hong Kong elections turn out.

 

[jstar]

Here in HK we may have different feelings about that particular group.

Well, every medal has two sides.

Imam Abdul Somad, yes the one who stated that playing chess is haram, planned a series of speeches and was refused entry of Hong Kong in 2017.
And yesterday the same happened with imam Riza Muhammad, who is also considered a hate preacher.
.

 

[Dave70]

Kind of ironic given China's indignant demand for western countries to stop interfering in domestic Chinese affairs by calling for restraint in dealing with the Hong Kong crisis.

Not just espionage, but funding, training, and giving other assistance. The CIA, mostly through the NED, are directly involved in the Hong Kong protests.

If you have time, you can read https://qr.ae/TiQR5M

Also https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-now-admits-funding-occupy-central-hong-kong/5405680

 

[Balifrog]

Not just espionage, but funding, training, and giving other assistance. The CIA, mostly through the NED, are directly involved in the Hong Kong protests.

If you have time, you can read https://qr.ae/TiQR5M

Also https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-now-admits-funding-occupy-central-hong-kong/5405680

As somebody who just lived / worked in HKG for 8 years, this kind of articles make me laugh.....
But hey, believe in whatever you want.

 

[Dave70]

As somebody who just lived / worked in HKG for 8 years, this kind of articles make me laugh.....
But hey, believe in whatever you want.

Just curious, did you also laugh at the Quora answer? It's a long post, did you read it?

 

[Balifrog]

Just curious, did you also laugh at the Quora answer? It's a long post, did you read it?

The problem is that both the US and China (Bejing) are spreading fake news, manipulating existing news by mixing truth and lies, both of course orientated towards their camp.
It is also well documented that Bejing is using / paying people to post / answer on blogs, FB, newspapers comment section, twitter etc..... They have specific departments dedicated to this. Most of those comments / posts on various media can rather easily be spotted. Like when they are written in very good english, it is very unlikely it is the average middle class Chinese that wrote it.
The comment section on SCMP (South China Morning Post) is full of them.
And I am sure the US does same, albeit probably in a more subtil way.

Hence it becomes very difficult to discern the manipulation from the thruth.
The Quora very long article is a typical example, very biaised and creating confusion by the various periods / subjects mentionned.

Now I wait what they will say about the result of the HKG Council election where the Pro Bejing parties were properly swept out. The people has spoken. Or did the CIA manipulated the votes ?
OK, I think we are far away from the original topic, sorry to the O.P. !

 

[jstar]

I guess the delegation didn't use Huawei phones, then it would have been much easier....

Belgian trade mission suffers “massive” attack in China | VRT NWS: news

Belgium’s biggest trade mission to China ever has suffered a massive cyber-attack. The Chinese are being identified as the culprits.

www.vrt.be

 

[serious_fun]

As somebody who just lived / worked in HKG for 8 years, this kind of articles make me laugh.....
But hey, believe in whatever you want.

Exactly. Those rumours have been swirling around for many months and perpetuated by the wumao gangs.