Jakarta Gubernatorial Election Bets & Results

[centurion]

The long campaign is coming to an end and elections are near.

Looks like the Government is working strongly for Ahok behind the scenes, but will he reach more than 50% one week before the end?
Are Jakartans ready to pay a big price if they choose religious compliance-potential city mismanagement and corruption and reset as it was before ?
Would you dare to predict the results?

I think Ahok will loose with less than 3%. If I loose I am gladly paying a beer!

 

[Daniel50]

Unsure if the polling/surveys are more accurate then Brexit or the last US election. Suharto clan, Prabowo, Anies vs Megawati, Jokowi, Ahok. I know who I hope wins, but I am not sure who will win. I am thinking Anies may win. This would be a real step backwards, at least as I see it.

I am revising my prediction to Ahok all the way. I predict he wins by 4%.

 

[waarmstrong]

I hope the Jakarta voters are not as ill informed and ideologically driven as American voters. This will be a test to determine if anything has been learned during the past (almost) 20 years since the fall of the dictatorship.

 

[ChrisTex]

Anyone else get a text message or three basically saying vote Anies?

 

[Daniel50]

Anyone else get a text message or three basically saying vote Anies?

No txt msg received.

 

[dafluff]

An interesting development was that both PKB (NU's political arm) as well as PPP (Islamic party going back to Soeharto's era, a combination of NU and Muhammadyiah) have now declared (muted) support for Ahok. The latter has even mended some internal rift between them in order to support Ahok (PPP has had a split in leadership with two sets of officials, and previously only one set of them supported Ahok).

Some places have even put up banners with PKB and NU attributes declaring things such as "We reject Governor candidates supported by Radical Islam".

There is certainly a more defined split between the more hard line Islamic factions such as supported by PKS, and the nations more traditional and older organizations such as NU and Muhammadiyah. It remains to be seen whether the grassroots will follow the parties' leadership, but this will certainly make it easier for some Muslim's who were still on the fence to support Ahok.

This election has also brought to the forefront the creeping in of radical organizations such as Hizbut Tahrir, and the loss of influence of traditional organizations such as NU and Muhammadiyah. Beyond this election, I think this will be the narrative going forward: The traditional Muslim groups are now realizing that they can no longer ignore or accept the incursion of the more extremist positions, as they are losing more ground every day. The government will have to work together with NU and Muhammadiyah to curb this advance, lest they risk more sectarian clashes.

 

[Banana72]

I was thinking of four outcomes (combined with the blasphemy trial)

1. Ahok wins the election. Guilty verdict.
2. Ahok loses the election. Guilty verdict.
3. Ahok wins the election. Guilty verdict.
4. Ahok wins the election. Non guilty verdict.

Perhaps we should do a fun poll? Hoping for number 4.

 

[atlantis]

I was thinking of four outcomes (combined with the blasphemy trial)

1. Ahok wins the election. Guilty verdict.
2. Ahok loses the election. Guilty verdict.
3. Ahok wins the election. Guilty verdict.
4. Ahok wins the election. Non guilty verdict.

Perhaps we should do a fun poll? Hoping for number 4.

1 and 3 are identical.

 

[fastpitch17]

Ahok wins, guilty verdict
Ahok loses, not guilty verdict.

They will succeed in getting him out one way or the other.

 

[Bad_azz]

Soz for asking what may seem a dumb question- are the elections to be held on 19th April?
(I have been out of the loop a bit, been too busy to keep track of things)

 

[fastpitch17]

Soz for asking what may seem a dumb question- are the elections to be held on 19th April?
(I have been out of the loop a bit, been too busy to keep track of things)

Yes

 

[Banana72]

1 and 3 are identical.

Oops

1. Ahok loses the election. Guilty verdict.
2. Ahok loses the election. Not Guilty verdict.
3. Ahok wins the election. Guilty verdict.
4. Ahok wins the election. Not guilty verdict.

 

[atlantis]

Much better

 

[jstar]

With only a 1% difference between the two candidates (according to surveys), I would not put my eggs in one basket on the election part.

 

[Asun]

With only a 1% difference between the two candidates (according to surveys), I would not put my eggs in one basket on the election part.

Haven't we learnt from recent Brexit and Trump experiment that surveys aren't exactly reliable? Not to mention Indonesian surveys which are used more to sway rather than gauge electoral sentiment.

 

[dafluff]

Haven't we learnt from recent Brexit and Trump experiment that surveys aren't exactly reliable? Not to mention Indonesian surveys which are used more to sway rather than gauge electoral sentiment.

Agreed. There are some questionable survey companies in Indonesia. Indonesians have a term for it: "survei pesanan", which means survey that has been ordered (presumably by supporters of a certain candidate to bolster their position).

 

[Daniel50]

Haven't we learnt from recent Brexit and Trump experiment that surveys aren't exactly reliable? Not to mention Indonesian surveys which are used more to sway rather than gauge electoral sentiment.

Agreed. There are some questionable survey companies in Indonesia. Indonesians have a term for it: "survei pesananan", which means survey that has been ordered (presumably by supporters of a certain candidate to bolster their position).

Yes isn't that the truth.

Also a question for dafluff that is a scary/angry looking monkey. I am almost scared to ask you a question do to the gun shooting monkey. Whats up with the monkey?

Also it is spelled "pesanan".

 

[john madden]

Push polling anyone?

 

[jstar]

Haven't we learnt from recent Brexit and Trump experiment that surveys aren't exactly reliable? Not to mention Indonesian surveys which are used more to sway rather than gauge electoral sentiment.

Agreed. There are some questionable survey companies in Indonesia. Indonesians have a term for it: "survei pesananan", which means survey that has been ordered (presumably by supporters of a certain candidate to bolster their position).

There are not so many survey companies and polsters worldwide that are completely objective. Even in Europe we see major differences and deviations. (A recent example is the practically unpredicted huge loss of the Socialist party in The Netherlands.)

But the biggest problems are of course that it will always be a random sample (even with their 'xxxxx people from all layers of society' approach) , that people whose candidate is in the lead are not so motivated to show up at the station (polls can also motivate the opponents), and that people lie (I think that was a huge point in the Trump case as well, just PC).

In fact only an exit poll is relatively accurate. Having said that, I'm convinced it will be rather close; in that aspect they are right.

 

[dafluff]

Also it is spelled "pesanan".

WTF? I misspelled an Indonesian word??? Aaaarrghhh....