I think the law has a real chance of passing this time, when you look at the other participants of the Webinar.
It is the Law no. 5 of 1960 that prohibits ownership by noncitizens. They can change the law without running afoul of the constitution.
50 laws or amendments are included in the prolegnas 2020-2024. NONE of them include a rewriting or an amendment of UU 5/1960.
Therefore, the only way to pass an amendment to UU 5/1960 would be through a PerPU, which means that if a consortium wants to grease hands to a change in the Land Law, the hand to be greased are the one of the Top Man of the State first. Still if a PerPU is passed by Pak Presiden, the greasing job wouldn't end here because the PerPU has to be accepted or rejected by the DPR at the next DPR session.
On the Prolegnas topic: If 50 laws are indeed included in the prolegnas 2020-2024, only 1 so far has been passed (an amendment on the mining law if I recall correctly), 2 are on the step of Pembahasan, 3 are on the step of Penetapan Usul, 4 are on the step of Harmonisasi, 1 is on the step of Penyusunan... and 39 are left untouched by our beloved DPR.
Considering the above, I am confident that akhir bln Agustus I won't have my name on a SHM. Please note that I have said "akhir bln Agustus" without stating a particular year.
On the PerPU topic: It would be too long to explain what a PerPU exactly is but let's say it's a government regulation decided and signed by the President which has value of Law (and therefore which could initiate a change in UU 5/1960) when the nation face a COMPELLING URGENCY (ex: disaster,...etc). So, definitely the C19 crisis could be a starter for a PerPU. Now, does anyone seriously believe that passing a PerPU which says that the Nation urgently requires the help of foreigners through foreign investment and that allowing foreigners to get pieces of the Nation land is THE way for the Nation to go through this disaster, is something the Nation would accept easily? Would be a great gift for the Nationalists zealots and I wouldn't be surprised if it would be the first PerPU ever rejected by the DPRs who would see a super gift to boost their status of saviors of the Nation.
The only thing which
may happen imho is another twist through a PerMen (which can only help to implement witout modifying UU) of some sort. A new leasehold twist. SHM titles will remain WNI only goodies. I don't say it can't be an improvement. Just saying it won't have anything to do with SHM.