What the hell rupiah

jukung11

Well-Known Member
Cager
Joined
Oct 8, 2016
Messages
371
I am searching for answers all morning to what is happening to the rupiah. It has been all over the place. It has more fluctuations in the past few hours than the past six months. What is going on? The protests were days ago. Trump was elected two days ago too. The tax amnesty is supposed to be bringing in a ton more money. Anyone?
 
I am searching for answers all morning to what is happening to the rupiah. It has been all over the place. It has more fluctuations in the past few hours than the past six months. What is going on? The protests were days ago. Trump was elected two days ago too. The tax amnesty is supposed to be bringing in a ton more money. Anyone?

Stock market also dropping quite a bit.

My guess is that there are fears based on strongly worded statements by Kapolri yesterday that the police support the "legitimate leader of Indonesia". Similar statements were made by TNI chief-of-staff Gatot Nurmantyo a few days before the Ahok demonstrations. You don't make those statement unless you are expecting some shit to hit the fan.

Combined with Jokowi's visit to the armed forces Kopassus, Marines and Brimob yesterday, and his statement previously that there were "political actors" behind the demonstrations, it looks like lines are being drawn in the sand now.
 
Not only the IDR but the MYR is also volatile.
Financial markets are moving out of those bonds as they were subject to increase recently and now, due to the result of the USA election, there is uncertainty and fear and an outflow of funds....and Asia might suffer.
I'm waiting to buy Rp today....:thumb::pray2:
 
The IDR has moved because of the Trump effect. Expectation that this will lead to fed upward movement in interest rates in the future. Not good for any of us with IDR holdings. I wish I had waited to convert a large some to IDR that I did a few weeks ago. But I thought Hillary would win.
 
I looks like Bank Indonesia heavily intervened to stop the slide. It was big. 800 point swing in a day. Does anyone know where a good site is to find the volume traded and how much this may have cost Indonesia's foreign reserve?
 
I found Bank Indonesia's reserves declined a little before the selloff. It wasn't a lot. Just half a percent in a month.
http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/107669/indonesias-foreign-exchange-reserves-down-us700-million

I am still trying to find how much they had to spend in this downturn. The price keeps bouncing between 13,000 and 13,600. It is wild volatility today. (I wish owned options) Can anyone tell how much intervention is going on?

It doesn't make sense in blaming this just on a Trump election. The volatility spike was days after the news with no new policy announcements. Markets react faster than that.

Could something be going on with the Indonesian government we don't see yet? If not, this is a lot of speculation.

The government unrest does not help stabilize the risk factors in Indonesia.

I do see there is a slight decline in the region, but nothing like the rupiah. Articles are lumping in India with Indonesia, when India is going through a domestic currency shift.
 
Last edited:
It doesn't make sense in blaming this just on a Trump election. The volatility spike was days after the news with no new policy announcements. Markets react faster than that.

Quite right. To put the on Trump is giving the man far more credit than he deserves.
 
Not only the IDR but the MYR is also volatile.
Financial markets are moving out of those bonds as they were subject to increase recently and now, due to the result of the USA election, there is uncertainty and fear and an outflow of funds....and Asia might suffer.
I'm waiting to buy Rp today....:thumb::pray2:

Why is MYR reacting to the indonesian politics so much?
 
Not really, the Ringgit and Rupiah are rather similar, they are considered to be commodity currencies. Both are raw materials exporting developing countries in the same region of course.
 
How is the Thai baht performing- I'm am a bit curious if all these changes in government and monarchy are interlinked?
I guess when the money is nervous the price of gold goes up :)
 
Yep, people flee to precious metals when there is panic.

Thailand is difficult to compare with RI and MY. Of course they also have rubber/oil as the others, but they export mainly finished products as electronics, medication, cars, etc. The level of education is rather high. The tourism industry is huge. Of course the monarchy change comes at a bad moment with political instability and fear for riots and bringing the economy of the country to its knees etc. Add some terrorists to the mix....et voilà.
 
The price of gold jumped before the American election when India outlawed large denomination currency.
 
Sure glad I waited to exchange my dollars . . . the Indonesian banks are poised to raise their interest rates next month, my bank in Jakarta told me next month they will have to raise the savings rate for CD's. The Rupiah will continue to fall as TRUMP will spend a fortune on infrastructure and lower taxes. USA interest rates will continue to climb and inflation will spike, this in turn will make the dollar stronger and the Rupiah will suffer. Hold your dollars until at least February or March 2017, or cash in quickly if the Rupiah passes 14,000.
 
No one link the fall with all what happen with Ahok and a definitively shift of the demo for Jokowi?
It sound like a smooth tentative of coup d'état, or at least a destabilization of the country. Does this don't affect the rupiah more than Trump?
 
Well, there is a law from 7/2011, that states that the Rupiah must be used for all payments in Indonesia. The only relevant exceptions are term deposits in other currencies and international transactions. So in fact an Indonesian company you work for over here, can not pay you in USD if it is not to a foreign account. You need to be careful because after being scrutinized, HR & Finance could give you some rather bad news.
 
Well, there is a law from 7/2011, that states that the Rupiah must be used for all payments in Indonesia. The only relevant exceptions are term deposits in other currencies and international transactions. So in fact an Indonesian company you work for over here, can not pay you in USD if it is not to a foreign account. You need to be careful because after being scrutinized, HR & Finance could give you some rather bad news.
I did not say I work for an Indonesian company. Right?
 

Users who viewed this discussion (Total:0)

Follow Us

Latest Expat Indo Articles

Latest Tweets by Expat Indo

Latest Activity

New posts Latest threads

Online Now

Newest Members

Forum Statistics

Threads
5,966
Messages
97,423
Members
3,036
Latest member
stats
Back
Top Bottom