Does anyone assume the vote is totally accurate? With the massive amount of local control and corruption and a weak central government, I assume there was some cheating by localized politicians across Indonesia. I don't think the campaigns could have stopped it even if they were not coordinating it.
I don't think any election result has ever been "totally accurate". Did Jokowi use his incumbent advantage to the maximum? Yes.
However, we can say with extremely high confidence that he won the election, and that the victory margin of 55%-45% is accurate. Why?
1. Pre-election polling by many different independent pollsters have shown numbers close to this.
2. Quick count results also converge to this number. This is mathematically solid, because the 8 or so quick counts use different polling stations for samples. If there was localized cheating, then the numbers would not converge.
3. Independent kawalpemilu.org, which crowd-sources and even uploads recapitulation forms also arrives at this number.
4. The voting process is incredibly transparent, and votes are cast, then counted and finished the same day. Anyone can observe the process from start to finish if they want.
5. The BPN camp hasn't been able to show any evidence of wrongdoing, and filed a complaint with Bawaslu with laughable online article links as evidence.
6. Neither can BPN show any data supporting their claim of winning by 62% or 54% or whatever number they claim that keeps changing.
7. I find it highly unlikely that a gov't that can barely manage issuing eKTPs suddenly has the sophistication of rigging 18 million votes undetected.