Thoughts on 2020 and beyond.

harryopal

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Even before Covid 10 the critical emerging challenge for countries worldwide had become that of providing for ever increasing numbers of well educated graduates for whom employment prospects were becoming increasingly bleak. Massive unemployment rates were no longer a third world phenomena but demonstrations and rioting over unemployment were becoming increasingly widespread throughout Europe and in developed countries.

In the midst of the Covid 19 crisis governments attempt to pacify citizens anxious about the future by talking of a return to "normality" in weeks, months or even a year. Yet it has become clear that the dislocation of trade and economies accompanied by the closing of businesses from small to large accompanied by lay offs and job losses has been a defining event.

Having invented the wheel humankind set off down an often bumpy and ill-defined road of development and progress. While demand and growth precipitated ever expanding production and employment we lived in a world of hope despite economic and industrial crises. Yet by 2019 we had been struggling to deal with the ugly realities of increasing populations, unsustainability of resources and worldwide waste management problems.

Until this point the creation of new technologies, automation and robotization have been seen as means for increasing profit by reducing labour costs and producing cheaper goods. This has also seen it useful to employers in finding advantage in casual and short term employment rather than permanent employment which created stabiity and a sense of future for the employed. The social consequences of these dynamics has seen an ever widening gulf between those with wealth, and those fortunate to have employment. and the unemployed. Crime and social disturbances, expanding prison systems are part of the cost of societal development that has been prescribed by profit opportunities rather than overall societal well being.

The worldwide impact of Covid 19, apart from health issues, finds us at a crossroads. With the reality of increasing millions of unemployed to try and return to "normality" based on production policies of the past is to face a future of conflict and violence as the poor worldwide protest at their circumstances.

We have come to accept that education for all is critical for the well being of our societies. We have come to accept that pensions for the aged are also an essential component of social harmony. We have yet to come to terms with other areas of social support such as unemployment relief where systems have been created to require applicants to jump through hoops in the hope that discouragement will save funds.

We are at a pivotal moment where production and technology innovations and development need to have social equity not profit alone as a means of designing production for the way ahead. Instead of more efficient processes leading to cheaper products but fewer jobs a more socially equitable approach would be to reduce employment hours and increase employment positions. Basic minimum incomes for all members of society may yet be a means of developing a future with more social cohesion and less friction or even civil war.

And so ends today' sermon.
 

Vanhelsing

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Finland ran a universal basic income experiment a couple of years ago the outcome of which showing mixed results.

 

harryopal

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I guess the difference might be that in an era where there will be even fewer jobs, with a minumum income policy in place there may be less crime driven by poverty. In the absence of some such support we can expect much more desperation driven crime and social unrest given a massive and enduring downturn.
 
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vocalneal

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I think the only real danger is if the Covid strain becomes a mutated yearly occurrence. Like "common" flue but worse. Eventually we will all get herd immunity or die. Then I suspect it will be back to life as normal.
Same must have happened after the Black Death or Spanish Flu?

The antivax movement might find membership or support wanes.

NB. Spanish Flu was first reported in about May 1918 but was gone by summer 1919. So the currently situation might last a bit longer.
 
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cestpasmyjob

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Massive unemployment rates were no longer a third world phenomena but demonstrations and rioting over unemployment were becoming increasingly widespread throughout Europe and in developed countries.

Really? Outside France and the Yellow Jackets (which wasn't about unemployment, but about fuel taxes) where are these widespread riots?
 

Jaime C

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We already now have to provide a medical certificate stating that we are covid 19 free to fly domestic or international from Soekarno Hatta...

Good luck with that. If they are going to ask for such, then they might as well just close the airport.

Lack of reliable testing is a huge problem.
 

Balifrog

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Good luck with that. If they are going to ask for such, then they might as well just close the airport.

Lack of reliable testing is a huge problem.
Certificates + mask in the planes + boarding keeping 1,5 m distance......
Well, f*ck that. No way I would travel like that. Not the way I see a holiday trip ....
If that's the new world .......
 

fastpitch17

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Certificates + mask in the planes + boarding keeping 1,5 m distance......
Well, f*ck that. No way I would travel like that. Not the way I see a holiday trip ....
If that's the new world .......
Maybe not the new world but certainly the current world. This virus isn't done. There is a reasoning for the term, Live With It. Give it time and you will see some return to normalcy but, it may never be back to what it once was. Life is full of sacrifices, death no so much.
 

Balifrog

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Maybe not the new world but certainly the current world. This virus isn't done. There is a reasoning for the term, Live With It. Give it time and you will see some return to normalcy but, it may never be back to what it once was. Life is full of sacrifices, death no so much.
Sacrifices are OK if decided for me by myself, not by some politicians

Death is a normal step in life. Nobody outlived this world....
 

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