MOD: Caliphate or Islamic State is a possibility 20-30 years from now

Dave70

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At the moment, 3% of military members are radicalized. And this number can (logically) increase as well as decrease.

Almost 1 in 4 of students, who are future leaders of this country, are radicalized. If nothing or not enough is done now, this country is doomed (according to the news article). However, it did not mention what should be done to correct this.
 

jstar

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Simply pack and move might not be a valid option anymore. First of all we all get older and on a certain moment it's not so obvious to start somewhere from scratch.

And if I look at my home country and the surrounding states, I'm not so sure if over there it will not get even worse. The extremism (not only religious but also ultra left or right wing) and polarization in society is increasing considerably.

And that applies to many countries; if you look at countries like Thailand or the Philippines which would be more lenient from the majority's perspective, also there the violence and chance of terrorist actions will always exist.
 

Balifrog

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@jstar ,
Plenty, plenty peaceful places with sun and beaches in the world.
And if I were really way to old, I would head back to my village in South West France.
 

Helpful Herbert

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In the West lots of students are radically left wing and then once they enter the real world, get a job, mortgage, wife and kids, they become standard citizens without much interest in revolution. If Indonesia is able to build a solid middle class I don't believe they would be likely to push for huge change, although certain areas of the country becoming more like Aceh over time cannot be discounted. It's not going to happen in Jakarta, Manado or Bali though, even after 30 years. My theory (from observation over the last 10 years) is that Islam is a religion of the poor and those without education or hope, and improving those factors would lead to people focussing less on it.

There are certainly things that get more islamic over time, but there are also things that do not change, and also things that move in the opposite direction. For the latter, one example is the massive increase in Korean culture like soap operas and Kpop amongst Indonesians.

I have also noticed a lot of people becoming radically against radicalism, some of whom I would not have expected it from.
 

jstar

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Radicals against radicalism, hmm?

But you have a point, the better the education and standard of living, the less extremism. Also, it seems a bit of a trend here; currently the Arab world is idolized. Perhaps it's a wave 🌊 in a spectrum of more traditional conservatism and progressive ideas. See a bit the monokini in Europe, it practically disappeared.

Plenty, plenty peaceful places with sun and beaches in the world.
Yes, but trop de bouches font chère maigre, right? If those countries don't have terrorists, they have natural disasters or major crimes as kidnapping. And if you look at former colonies which are more politically stable , they have become very popular and expensive (e.g. Réunion, Aruba, St. Thomas, Tortola, Cayman & Bahamas, Belize, ...). And many countries don't have a flexible attitude towards foreigners on their beach front properties.

I would head back to my village in South West France.
That's what I mentioned, and meant with the polarization and extremism in Western Europe. I really don't appreciate what's happening between the ultra left green movements and right wing anti EU sentiments. And with the amazing influx of (economic) refugees, there is more and more impact on western society. Many of our freedoms are being questioned also, what will happen if certain groups become the majority? And about attacks etc; granted, I don't think terrorists will hit rural regions as Lot so easily, but see what happens in Lyon, Nice, etc.
 
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Dave70

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@Balifrog > Yes, you can simply pack and move. But you may have to consider your assets in Indonesia as “lost”. That’s why I don’t keep all my eggs in one basket. And will not apply for Indonesian citizenship unless dual citizenship is allowed. Maintaining your connections back home is also important, so I visit at least once a year.

@jstar > If Indonesia is becoming a caliphate, moving elsewhere is better than staying here under Islamic laws, don’t you think?

@Helpful Herbert > Just one example, the terrorists in Sri Lanka were well-to-do and highly educated. So people are not getting radicalized because they’re poor. The problem in Indonesia is the government allowing religion and religious symbols in primary/secondary state schools. More and more private schools based on religion are also being built, some possibly funded from abroad. The MOD General is brave to speak out his frustrations, I think he’s afraid that Indonesia will have his Morsi someday, and the country may need an el-Sisi. Now I understand why Prabowo is talking about “Indonesia Islam” and nationalism, it could be he’s trying to say that he doesn’t want “Saudi Islam” in Indonesia. The same problem in Turkey, “Saudi Islam” is taking over “Turkey Islam”, but some of them are fighting back. As to nationalism (and Pancasila), he may be hoping a heavy dose of it can prevent or cure radicalism.
 

jstar

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Well, I realize more and more that countries like Malaysia are not that bad for us as foreigners (assuming we're not Muslim). There is a huge amount of scrutiny but they leave you alone if you have a different denomination. Unlike 'here' where many extremists seem to think everybody has to adjust and to do what they do (cf. turning a blind eye on raids at Ramadan, not providing alcohol in restaurants in this period, a halfhearted and pathetic attempt towards halal tourism, ...)

And since the rules are not clear now, and the Civil law is different from the Islamic version which again is not the same as Adat, everybody is afraid to upset certain groups so they avoid risks and we are the virtual victims.
 

Balifrog

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@Dave70 ,
I don't have any assets in Indonesia. One thing I learned very early in my travelling life is "dont invest in other countries more than you can afford to walk away from without problem"

More generally :
From a colleague who has worked and lived since several years in Malaysia, it seems religiously things are becoming more and more complicated.
My "village" in France is a 6,000 habitants place on the Bassin d'Arcachon. Quality of life is nice. Too bad the sun doesn't shine all year long.

Renewing my Kitas in November for another year, and I'll see what happens year by year.
No need to stress.
All my important private belongings and family souvenir hold in 2 or 3 trunks, probably 100 kg.
 

Pak Tani

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MOD: Caliphate or Islamic State is a possibility 20-30 years from now
A statement like this must be based upon a trend measured by an institute? Or is it just a wild guess? It's a shame that the article is a bit light on the details and there are not many starting points to dig a bit deeper. So for what it's worth...the final results of the recent elections have been announced by the KPU and it's interesting to have a look at how the (conservative) islamic parties have performed. Are they gaining seats? An update from a previous table:
Pemilu2019.png


Pemilu2019Graph.png


 

Dave70

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@Pak Tani > I think the General is concerned about radicals growing in this country, not the political parties. The radicals most probably don't vote anyway, but some may take advantage of democracy. It is a good thing that the establishment has identified the radicals within the military, so that they can be monitored. Otherwise, it will be dangerous to put them into sensitive positions or close to power (remember Anwar Sadat).
 

scouser59

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There is not 1 good beach in banyuwangi area , I suppose they have got to do something to attract a few punters .
 

scouser59

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Ya pulau merah is ok almost 2 hours away , but nearby the city nothing good ,"boom beach" stinks there must be a big untreated sewage outflow nearby .
 

Jamu

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When will be shariah beach on Bali? Banyuwangi is quite near.
Will never happen. Any so called authority messing about with the local culture (all the religious holidays, ceremonies, general way of life etc), or threatening the tourist dollar and the Balinese share of it, would not be tolerated. It's no surprise that Jokowi received 92% of the vote in Bali, the highest share of any province in the country.
 

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